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We're set for another big stretch-run Friday night slate in MLB that's light on elite pitchers. However, we do have one very good strikeout arm on the mound in a favorable matchup, and a Coors Field game informs two of our three hitter props.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, August 18, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Spencer Strider OVER 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-145 PointsBet Sportsbook) or To Record A Win (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Strider's swing-and-miss stuff is unquestionably elite, and despite a rare downturn in strikeouts over his last two starts, he's still carrying an outstanding 14.0 K/9 and 20.3 percent swinging strike rate on the season.
Strider has whiff rates north of 50.0 percent on two (changeup, slider) of the three pitches in his arsenal this season as well, and he owns a 15.1 K/9 across 71.1 home frames. He's recorded at least eight strikeouts in 19 of his 24 starts, a stellar percentage that heavily fuels the notion he's capable of the feat again Friday.
The Giants also add to that belief, considering they've been the most punchless team against right-handed pitching in all of baseball (.207 average, .276 wOBA, -27.0 wRAA) since the All-Star break while also striking out at a 24.8 percent clip in that split. The latter figure climbs slightly to an even more bloated 25.6 when splitting it out just for road matchups.
Atlanta is well over a -200 favorite for Friday's game, so a bet on the Record A Win prop is also certainly viable at a better price.
Pablo Lopez To Record A Win (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lopez is also a strong candidate to emerge victorious Friday in a game the Twins are up to -240 favorites for as of Friday morning. The opposing Pirates' poor track record against right-handed pitching in the second half of the season is one of the big reasons for the lopsided odds.
Pittsburgh has gotten some impactful hits against righties since the All-Star break on its way to a respectable .428 slugging percentage in that split, but the Bucs are also sporting a .213 average, .305 wOBA and 27.2 percent strikeout rate against that handedness on the road in the second half.
Also helping Lopez's chances of garnering a win is opposing starter Andre Jackson, who's pitched to a 5.47 ERA and 2.1 HR/9 in 26.1 innings this season. Jackson does have good swing-and-miss stuff, but he was touched up by the Reds for three earned runs on five hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in his first start of the season last time out.
Minnesota has also been very good against righties at home since the break, producing a .300 average, .924 OPS, .389 wOBA and 22.3 wRAA in that split. Then, Lopez checks in with elite form over the last five starts, as he's generated a 3-1 record, 1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 0.9 HR/9 across the 31 innings he's logged in that sample.
Furthermore, Lopez has given up three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and recorded victories in five of his last six decisions.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Juan Soto muscles one out the other way for his 12th home run! pic.twitter.com/dduXAwHgz8
— MLB (@MLB) June 20, 2023
Juan Soto OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Soto and the rest of his Padres teammates are likely licking their chops for Friday night's matchup against the Diamondbacks' Brandon Pfaadt, whose sporting an unsavory array of metrics that includes an 0-6 record, 6.91 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 2.3 HR/9. Pfaadt has been better of late with a 4.34 ERA across his last five turns, but he's still carrying an 0-3 mark and 1.6 HR/9 in that span.
The Friars are big favorites Friday behind Seth Lugo and Pfaadt just allowed nine hits and three runs to San Diego his last time out at home. He's also had plenty of trouble against left-handed hitters, pitching to a .307 BAA, .926 OPS, .392 wOBA and 5.65 FIP in that split. Meanwhile, Soto has a .401 wOBA, .952 OPS and 158 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Soto has averaged 1.8 hits + runs + RBI at home this season in a 62-game sample, and the Padres have a robust projected total of 5 runs as of early Friday morning. Arizona relievers have pitched to a .291 BAA, .908 OPS and .388 wOBA against left-handed hitters since the All-Star break as well, so they make for very good targets for Soto once Pfaadt exits the game.
Ryan McMahon OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+130 DraftKings Sportsbook) or To Hit A HR (+425 PointsBet Sportsbook)
McMahon has already hit the 20-homer mark for the third straight season and fourth in the last five campaigns overall, and he's knocked 11 of his round-trippers at home on his way to an impressive .855 OPS in that split.
McMahon is averaging 1.7 total bases per game for the season, and with 48 extra-base hits, he's inching closer to the career-high 56 he belted in 2021. The lefty-swinging slugger is clocking an even better 1.9 total bases per game at Coors Field, and Friday, he draws a matchup against a pitcher who's unfamiliar with the hitter-friendly venue and already has plenty of trouble keeping the ball in the park in the White Sox's Michael Kopech.
Kopech has pitched to a 2.0 HR/9, allowing at least one ball to leave the park in seven of his last eight starts. The hard-throwing right-hander has also given up plenty of hard contact to lefty bats, with 20 of the 41 hits he's surrendered to that handedness this season going for extra bases.
Finally, consider McMahon has a good track record against the two types of pitches Kopech throws most often against lefty batters, the four-seam fastball and a slider -- the veteran slugger sports a .379 wOBA and .389 xwOBA against the former and a .290 average and .396 wOBA against breaking pitches overall.
Andrew Benintendi OVER 1.5 Total Hits (+120 DraftKings SportsBook)
Benintendi makes for an intriguing player on the other side of the White Sox-Rockies matchup to consider this prop for. The left-handed hitting veteran is facing Peter Lambert, who's allowed a .394 average and .482 wOBA to the 40 left-handed hitters he's faced at home thus far this season.
Lambert has been in particularly poor form thus far in August, pitching to a 7.71 ERA, .849 OPS and .364 wOBA over 14 innings. Meanwhile, Benintendi has a .277 average and very modest 14.2 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and an even smaller 12.5 percent strikeout rate on the road overall.
The above-average contact hitter should therefore be in good position to record his 30th multi-hit effort of the season at Coors Field, where the White Sox boast a 6.2 projected-run total. Colorado's relievers will also make for very good targets, as they've pitched to a 6.30 ERA, .294 BAA and .388 wOBA against left-handed hitters since the All-Star break.
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