MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 8/19/26)

August 19, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 8/19/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

It's been a really solid late-season surge for yours truly, as I have gone 17-7 across my last two MLB slates to push into my most profitable spot on the ledger sheet this year. Let's stay hot with a big card today, and I'm even going to press my luck with a few hitter props as I have started to dabble in them more lately with some success.

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee that sportsbooks charge for using their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similar to how investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-138)

NRFI bets are always a lot of fun and a quick, easy sweat. However, I have been betting them much less frequently as it's tough to find decent odds on good spots this year.

I was all over Boston's bats yesterday against Merrill Kelly, but Brandon Pfaadt comes into today's matchup as the most consistent Arizona pitcher. Since returning to the rotation in June, he's allowed two runs or fewer in all nine starts, and his NRFI record is 8-1 in those starts.

The Red Sox counter with hard-throwing lefty Payton Tolle, who is enjoying a big rookie season. I am not on Tolle's strikeouts today, but I think he'll pitch well in this one and has put up a scoreless first in his last three straight starts.

MLB Team Totals

Athletics over 3.5 runs (-133) at Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)

I love picking on Seth Lugo, and I think he'll have his hands full with this Athletics team today. Lugo has allowed 13 runs over his last three starts, and once he's done for the day, the Athletics will have a favorable matchup against a KC pen that has been overworked in recent weeks, too.

This is just too low of a number for the Athletics, even on the road. They've scored 4+ runs in eight of their last ten games.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Pitcher Prop Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Parker Messick OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)

While I wish we were getting him at 5.5, I am willing to go over 6.5 strikeouts on Messick today based on what is probably the best matchup for any pitcher on the board today.

The Giants are rolling out a gross-looking lineup against lefties lately with a bunch of unproven young players. Here is their projected lineup against the lefty Messick, who has a 25.5% K% vs. LHP.

Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-163)

Rasmussen had his streak of awesome starts snapped last time out as he only lasted five innings against the Athletics. He didn't pitch badly, allowing two runs, but he only struck out three hitters. I like his chances of pitching well today against this Toronto team that is missing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the lineup and lacks any real power threats.

These odds shifted quite a bit since I started writing this article, and there's some heavy juice here. You can bet him over 5.5 strikeouts at a much higher rate of return, but remember that Rasmussen is a guy who doesn't mind pitching to contact, and I am a bit leery of chasing his big strikeout games. He's faced Toronto three times this season, striking out five Jays twice and six of them in the other start, so I lean towards the over 4.5K bet.

Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-113)

Nola gets a familiar foe here in the Marlins today. While he hasn't struck out six of them yet this year (5 and 4 in two starts vs. MIA), he has pitched well against them, allowing only one earned run across 11.2 innings. This Miami team is trending UP in K-rate to righties (23% last two weeks), and Nola is coming off two really good starts as he struck out eight Blue Jays and nine Twins in his last two outings.

Walbert Urena OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

What's this guy got to do to get some respect? Urena has his walk issues, but the guy has been rock solid all year with a 2.67 ERA and 5+ strikeouts in 11 of his last 15 starts. He's faced Houston's right-handed heavy lineup twice already this season, striking out seven and five Astros in those two outings. He's tougher on righties, so this matchup favors his splits, and I like him to do it again!

Kumar Rocker OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Rocker, like Urena, continues to get a low number that we can attack here. He's been quite good in the K department, going for 5+ strikeouts in seven of his last ten games. His 11.5% SwStr% is a solid number and suggests that he can continue to improve on his 21% K% this season.

Washington's late-season lineup has more holes in it than it did earlier in the year, and they're sporting a 24% K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks.

Matthew Liberatore OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Liberatore is on the road and facing Chase Burns as his mound opponent, but he doesn't have to strike him out...just the Reds hitters! Cincy has the second-worst K% vs. LHP over the last two weeks at 28.6% and a terrible 42 wRC+ to go along with it. We've seen Joey Cantillo, Jacob Lopez, and Quinn Matthews all have major success against this lineup lately, and Liberatore, while he can be volatile, has six or more strikeouts in five of his last eight starts.

Michael King OVER 17.5 OUTS (+100)

I don't trust King's strikeout props this year, but he has been a very reliable innings eater. He's logged six or more innings (18 outs) in seven of his last 10 starts, while the Mets have allowed right-handed starters to go that deep into games at a 60% clip over their last ten matchups, too.

Cade Cavalli OVER 17.5 OUTS (-117)

Cavalli's strikeout prop is very tempting today, but I think his outs prop is a slam dunk and we are getting solid odds here. He's gone six innings (18 outs) in nine of his last ten starts and is facing a Rangers lineup that has allowed righties to go that deep into games against them in six of their last seven matchups.

Hitter Prop Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Jake Cronenworth OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-106)

Jake "the rake" Cronenworth should hit in the two-hole today behind the red-hot Fernando Tatis and faces one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Mets' minor leaguer Robert Stock. He's gone over this number in six of his last seven games, and I think he has a great shot of clearing the bar again today in this favorable environment. He has both runs scored and RBI upside with this lineup slot.

Jonathan Aranda OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135)

Hey, it's another two-hole hitter who is facing a pretty bad righty on the mound - I guess I have a type! The odds aren't quite as good on Aranda here, but he's also a better hitter than Cronenworth. He comes in hot, too, going over this number in four of his last five games. Oh, and the "bad righty" he is facing is Mad Max Scherzer, who is on his last legs as an MLB starter and getting crushed by lefties to the tune of a .545 SLG this season.

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