Five Overvalued Players for 2024 Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

August 16, 2024

Dave Ventresca examines several overvalued players in 2024 dynasty fantasy football leagues. Dynasty managers may want to fade these players at their current price.

The dynasty fantasy football market is very similar to Wall Street. Player values change by the minute depending on the slightest bit of news that breaks on a particular day. Like the stock market, there are players undervalued by the community and there are those overvalued as well.

If you can identify the players whose value is incorrect, it can help give you an advantage over the rest of your league. Even if that edge ends up only being a tenth of a percent, it can be all the difference in winning your league. Today, we are going to discuss several players currently being overvalued in the dynasty fantasy football marketplace.

Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. With that said, here are five overrated players in 2024 dynasty fantasy football leagues.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie last year. He finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game and genuinely looked the part as a franchise quarterback.

C.J. Stroud 🎯 Tank Dell

40-YARD TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/xbt06pF0OA

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 19, 2023

His situation further improved when the Texans acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade. He joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form arguably the best receiving trio in the league. This all sounds great, but it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud offers very little rushing upside.

For him to make a run at the overall QB1, Stroud would have to finish with close to 5,000 passing yards and 40+ passing touchdowns. It’s within the range of outcomes, but it’s not certain the Texans offense will go in that direction. The team also acquired former Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon to improve the ground game. The addition of Mixon (and signing him to a contract extension) shows the team wants more out of its ground attack and might not prefer a pass-happy approach.

Stroud is being selected as the QB3 off draft boards in FFPC dynasty leagues. He's going ahead of well-established players like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Stroud is a great player, but the dynasty QB3? With little rushing upside, this feels like Stroud is already priced at his ceiling. Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray, both of whom present Konami code upside, are being taken after Stroud. While that's understandable, they both can finish as the overall QB1, too, and arguably have an easier path than Stroud due to their rushing abilities.

While we should expect improvement from Stroud in Year 2, the reality is that there are better bets for an overall QB1 finish. A QB3 price tag is too rich. He could return that value, but it’s just not as certain as some dynasty gamers believe.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

LaPorta is coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him finish as the TE1 in half and full PPR leagues.

Can I interest you in ANOTHER Sam LaPorta touchdown?
pic.twitter.com/MXNROhsffX

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 8, 2023

As a result, he is being selected as the TE1 in dynasty startup drafts. While that’s understandable, it might not be the best strategic move. Let’s compare some of LaPorta's 2023 advanced data (Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite) to a few tight ends going after him in drafts.

Sam LaPorta - FFPC ADP: 19.95 Overall

Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): .26
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 1.95
Target Share (TGT %): 19.5%

Trey McBride - FFPC ADP: 30.67 Overall

TPRR: .27
YPRR: 2.15
TGT %: 18.7%

Mark Andrews - FFPC ADP: 43.48 Overall

TPRR: .23
YPRR: 2.11
TGT %: 20.8%

The data shows there is not much difference between these three players, and it also suggests that McBride and Andrews might be better. Nonetheless, it confirms they all are equally talented and can easily return a TE1 finish if the cards fall right. If that’s the case, why pay a premium on LaPorta when you can find the same player later in drafts?

Overall, fading LaPorta has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his cost. He is priced at his ceiling, and there are options later in startup drafts that give you equal production for a better price.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

Before we get started, Harrison is a stud. There's no debating that, and he’s going to be a fantastic pro. However, he is being drafted as the WR5 in FFPC startup drafts. Like Stroud, Harrison is being priced at his ceiling. His price tag is very expensive for a rookie. This feels like a good opportunity to cash in and make a profit on a player who hasn’t stepped foot on an NFL field.

It’s worth exploring a tier-down trade-off between Harrison and someone like fellow rookie Rome Odunze. He’s arguably just as talented as Harrison but isn’t nearly as expensive. Managers could get a similar player and pick up an additional asset to use however they please.

This is not an indictment on Harrison as a player. He is going to be good. It just feels like we’re buying Harrison at his ceiling, and again, that’s usually not a good move in dynasty fantasy football.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor held out into the 2023 season in order to secure a new contract with the Colts. It was unclear how that situation would unfold, but it actually worked in his favor. When it was all said and done, Indianapolis handed Taylor a three-year, $42 million contract extension. While that was nice to see, 2023 wasn’t exactly Taylor’s best season. He posted a career-low 4.4 yards per carry and was arguably outplayed by fellow back Zack Moss.

In reality, we shouldn’t worry too much about all that. Taylor is still one of the best backs in the league.

JONATHAN TAYLOR 49 YARD TOUCHDOWN!
pic.twitter.com/6tUo35MGgQ

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 7, 2024

While playing alongside Anthony Richardson should help Taylor’s efficiency, it might hurt his fantasy ceiling. Richardson is sure to steal some touchdowns, and rushing quarterbacks typically don’t target running backs at a high rate. This means Taylor might be overvalued at his current RotoBaller dynasty RB5 ranking.

There’s a lot of turnover year to year in dynasty running back rankings. Taylor is just one injury away from potentially dropping outside the top 10. The 2025 running back class is loaded with talent, and Taylor's place among the top-5 backs is likely done by this time next year. Now is a good time to consider cashing out.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

One of last season’s fantasy MVPs, Williams' value took a hit when the Rams selected Michigan back Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Corum was one of the most productive backs in college football and presents an immediate threat to Williams’ spot atop the depth chart.

.@RamsNFL @UMichFootball @blake_corum joins @Kyrenwilliams23 what a great 1-2 punch behind a vastly improved OL. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/2bWACCWCCe

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) April 27, 2024

Look, Williams had an incredible 2023. His 21.3 PPR points per game were second only to Christian McCaffrey. But the Rams had a front-row seat to Williams’ 2023 and still felt the need to draft Corum. GM Les Snead has admitted the team overworked Williams last year, and they see a lot of similarities between the two backs. It was also reported the Rams were looking to trade their third-round pick until they saw Corum falling to them. It sure sounds like the team has something planned for the rookie.

Williams is a good player, but the Rams' selection of Corum clouds his future. Some think Williams is now a huge bargain, but the reality is that there’s more uncertainty with this situation than some care to admit. For now, it’s best to avoid Williams and wait to see how the upcoming season unfolds.

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