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Andy's five NL outfield breakout candidates and potential fantasy baseball sleepers for 2025. These NL outfielders have big upside as fantasy baseball values.
Welcome back to our series about fantasy baseball breakouts, today looking at NL outfielders. You can check out my breakout outfielders from the AL as well. With fantasy baseball drafts heating up, it's important to have a list of draft targets that are breakout candidates for this year, including younger players with upside who may make a big splash in 2025. Even though it may not be ideal to "reach" for this player, they could outperform their ADP in a big way if they put the pieces together.
In this piece, I will analyze five outfielders from the National League who are set to break out in 2025. If these players take the next step, they could be potential league-winners. Two of these players are teammates in the nation's capital, while two other players in this piece will face off quite often in the NL Central. All five of these outfielders have shown elite upside at times but have yet to produce over a full MLB season. All ADP provided in this piece is from the NFBC.
Be sure to keep following @RotoBallerMLB and me @A_SMITH_FS on X for more league-winning off-season content. Let's dive in!
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Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 40.9
Oneil Cruz has been in the major leagues for several seasons but still has some untapped potential. He made 87 appearances during the 2022 campaign and posted an underwhelming .233/.294/.450 line with 13 doubles, four triples, 17 long balls, and 10 steals.
Cruz was poised to break out in 2023 but suffered a fractured ankle and could only appear in nine games. However, the 26-year-old was able to avoid the injured list throughout the entire 2024 season. Across 146 games, Cruz held a .259/.324/.449 line with 21 home runs and 22 stolen bases.
However, a look under the hood suggests Cruz could reach a new level in 2025.
Cruz generated an elite 15.7 percent barrel rate and a 54.9 percent hard-hit rate, which placed him in the 97th percentile among qualified hitters. Cruz also posted a 95.5 mph average exit velocity, placing him in the 99th percentile. The 6-foot-7 giant also placed in the 88th percentile in sprint speed.
He also generated a strong .340 xwOBA, .263 xBA, and a .461 xSLG, which could open the door for some positive regression in 2025.
In addition, when comparing his 2024 production to 2022 (skipping 2023 due to a small sample size), Cruz improved his performance against all types of pitches.
He generated an elite .312 xBA and .568 xSLG against fastballs in 2024 compared to the ..263 xBA and .514 xSLG he posted against them in 2022. He also raised his xSLG against breaking pitches by 133 points (.352 - .219).
Even though he strikes out at a hefty 30.2 percent rate, given his elite power and speed metrics, Cruz could emerge as a star in the Steel City in 2025.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 137.9
The former top prospect was given his first extended look at the majors last season. Across 123 total games, "PCA" posted a .237/.268/.384 line with 13 doubles, 10 long balls, and an impressive 27 swiped bags.
However, Crow-Armstrong was quite streaky at times, making him difficult to trust. During his first 25 games, the former top prospect held a serviceable .246/.299/.361 line with one round-tripper and five stolen bases. However, over his next 46, he posted a .170 AVG and a poor .289 SLG.
Despite the prolonged slump, Crow-Armstrong was able to finish on a high note, which gives fantasy managers some hope heading into 2025.
During his final 52 games, the 22-year-old posted a strong .284/.337/.446 line with seven doubles, seven long balls, and seven stolen bases. He posted a .803 OPS during this stretch.
Even while he struggled, Crow-Armstrong remained in the lineup due to his elite defensive metrics. Baseball Savant placed him in the 97th percentile in range and 96th percentile in arm strength. He was also placed in the 99th percentile sprint speed.
While his long slump could be worrisome for some fantasy managers, his strong finish and proven track record over 60 Triple-A games (.264/.329/.492 line) suggest he could be poised for a sophomore breakout, slotting in as the everyday center fielder in Chicago.
Cubs rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong rounded the bases in 14 SECONDS on this inside-the-park home run 🤯
Fastest home-to-home time in MLB this season 💨
(via @MLB)
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 24, 2024
James Wood, Washington Nationals
ADP: 51.2
After posting an incredible .353/.463/.595 line in his first 52 games at Triple-A, Wood joined the Washington Nationals on July 1. During his first taste of the major leagues, the former top prospect posted a solid .264/.354/.427 line with nine long balls and 14 stolen bases.
A quick look under the hood shows a budding superstar on the verge of a breakout.
Wood generated an elite 52.0 percent hard-hit rate and 10.6 percent barrel rate, both well above the average marks. He also generated a strong .269 xBA and .439 xSLG, suggesting Wood should see positive regression in 2025.
More importantly, Wood saw steady development during his rookie season. His xBA (against fastballs and offspeed pitches) rose during September after a modest output in August.
Wood also saw his fly-ball rate increase significantly (against offspeed and breaking pitches) during September, which is another strong sign heading into his second season.
Wood has five-category upside with an everyday spot in the Nationals lineup.
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
ADP: 197.5
After appearing in just 34 MLB contests during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Ramos appeared in 121 games in 2024. He flashed high-upside power during this stint, launching 22 bombs with a .269/.322/.469 line. He was also named to the NL All-Star team.
He generated an elite .481 xSLG and 14.5 percent barrel rate, which placed him in the 90th and 92nd percentile, respectively. He also posted a strong .338 xwOBA. All of these metrics suggest Ramos can take his production to the next level in 2025.
Ramos also saw his ground-ball rate lower gradually throughout the season, especially when facing fastballs and breaking balls. This is a positive sign and could open the door for an even greater power surge in 2025.
Ramos is penciled to be the everyday left fielder in San Francisco. Ramos' metrics and progression suggest he could have 30+ HR upside across a full 162-game season.
Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals
ADP: 134.9
Lastly, the top prospect in D.C. (and No. 7 overall) takes the final spot on this list. Crews were taken with the second overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of LSU.
Crews made his MLB debut late in the 2024 season, as he only appeared in 31 games. During this small taste, Crews posted a .218/.288/.353 line with three home runs and 12 stolen bases. While this may not seem impressive, his metrics suggest he could enjoy a sophomore surge.
The outfielder generated an above-average 44.7 percent hard-hit rate, a solid .253 xBA, and a .418 xSLG, suggesting he should see positive regression.
The 22-year-old showcased his elite speed as he placed in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed, which should provide him with a high floor even if his bat needs time to develop.
Across 70 games split between Double and Triple-A last season, Crews looked quite comfortable as he held a .270/.342/.451 line with 13 long balls and 25 swiped bags.
More importantly, during this stint, Crews held a 20.5 percent strikeout rate, which was near-identical to the 19.7 percent strikeout rate he held in the majors.
While his bat may need more time to adjust, his elite eye and speed have already adjusted to the majors. Crews is a budding star at an excellent discount in drafts. His potential to start slow is already baked into his ADP. Draft this budding superstar with confidence.
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