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Andy's five AL outfield breakout candidates and potential fantasy baseball sleepers for 2025. These AL outfielders have big upside as fantasy baseball values.
To succeed in fantasy baseball, it is usually essential to take risks on young players who have shown upside before but have yet to put it together over a consistent period. While it may seem risky to select a player who has yet to reach their full potential, especially early in your drafts, you could be in a great position to win your league if they indeed breakout.
In this piece, I will analyze five outfielders from the American League who are set to break out in 2025. Two of these outfielders have struggled to find playing time due to their deep organizations, while another played an integral part in a World Series run but was sidelined with injuries throughout most of last season. These players have shown elite upside at times but have yet to produce over a 162-game season. All ADP provided in this piece is from the NFBC.
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Jasson Dominguez, New York Yankees
ADP: 148.8
The former top prospect is expected to finally make the Opening Day roster. Over the past two seasons, Dominguez has been given brief looks at the major leagues but is set to become a full-time player in 2025.
During the 2023 campaign, Dominguez showcased his elite upside by launching four home runs (.258/.303/.677 line) across his first eight MLB contests.
However, Dominguez was limited by numerous injuries last season, including Tommy John. He was able to return to the majors but struggled as he posted a .179/.313/.304 line with just one double, two home runs, and five stolen bases across 18 games.
However, during this stint, he generated an elite 10.8 percent barrel rate and a 45.9 percent hard-hit rate, which were well above the average marks.
Given these metrics, fantasy managers should not be overly concerned with his disappointing play last season, given his numerous setbacks.
In 44 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, "The Martian" posted an elite .309/.368/.480 line with seven doubles, seven home runs, and 15 stolen bases.
With Alex Verdugo testing the open market, Dominguez is slated to be the everyday left fielder in the Bronx.
In addition, Aaron Boone has noted that Dominguez could even be the team's leadoff hitter in favor of Anthony Volpe. The 22-year-old has showcased elite on-base skills throughout the minors and could thrive batting in front of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The stage is set for Dominguez to finally showcase his elite skill set.
Jasson Dominguez: Post-Hype Sleeper? 🚀
After mashing 4 HR in 8 MLB games in ‘23, injuries slowed him down in ‘24 (.179/.313/.304).
But his 🔥 .325/.391/.495 Triple-A line + 7 HR/18 SB says there’s more upside.
Locked in as NYY’s LF (maybe leadoff?), I’m buying at 149.5 ADP on… pic.twitter.com/13kMRegxEq— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 19, 2025
Heston Kjerstad, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 362.8
Heston Kjerstad has done nothing but impress in the minor leagues. However, when called up to the majors, he has never found consistent playing time. After appearing in just 12 games during the 2023 season, Kjerstad logged just 39 appearances last season.
Across this brief 52-game stint in Baltimore, the slugger has held a modest .248/.336/.411 line with three doubles and six home runs.
Kjerstad made headlines at Triple-A last season as he posted an impressive .300/.397/.601 line with 16 long balls in just 56 contests. This was a nice improvement compared to the .298/.371/.498 line he held during his first 76 games at the level during the 2023 season.
Earlier in the offseason, Orioles general manager Mike Elias said the former second overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft is a "frontrunner" for a spot on the Opening Day roster.
In addition, Elias noted that he has "earned the right to get at-bats in the corner outfield and at designated hitter, especially against right-handed pitchers."
Even if Kjerstad opens the season in a platoon role, given his elite power upside, he could eventually earn a full-time role. He is a great target late in drafts when looking for power in the final rounds, given his prospect pedigree.
Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 177.8
Parker Meadows was on track to have a disastrous 2024 campaign. During the first half, Meadows held a poor .131/.247/.286 line with just three home runs and was eventually optioned to Triple-A in May.
However, Meadows flipped the script after the Midsummer Classic and posted a stellar .296/.340/.500 line. He went deep six times, added five doubles, and swiped five bags with a 13:42 BB:K.
During this stretch, he struck out at a 20.9 percent rate, which is a significant improvement compared to the first half's 35.1 percent rate.
In addition, during the final month of the season, the former second-round pick began to be deployed as the leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching. He also remained in the lineup against southpaws but typically batted ninth.
During the postseason, he held a .269 AVG with one long ball and three stolen bases across seven games.
Fantasy managers should feel confident targeting him, given his strong second half. Being penciled in as the leadoff hitter and having five-category potential, Meadows is poised to put all the pieces together for a breakout season.
However, Meadows has been dealing with a nerve issue in his right arm during the early part of camp. The 25-year-old has begun participating in light baseball activities but will not be ready for Opening Day. The Tigers placed Meadows on the 60-day injured list.
However, in deeper formats, he is worth stashing on an IL spot as he could become a must-start player once he is cleared to return.
Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
ADP: 268.7
Evan Carter was a trendy breakout pick leading up to the 2024 campaign after his impressive finish to the 2023 season.
During his rookie season, Carter posted a strong .308/.413/.615 slash line with five round-trippers and three stolen bases in just 23 games. Then, during their World Series run, Carter did not slow down as he held a .300/.417/.500 lines across 17 contests.
However, his 2024 season fell apart early. Carter battled a lingering back injury and was eventually shut down in late May. During his brief 43-game stint to open the season, Carter struggled as he held a .188/.272/.361 line.
Given the nagging injury, fantasy managers should not be overly concerned with that production.
Earlier in spring training, it was reported that the team will "closely monitor" his status. This could result in occasional rest days throughout the long season. Fantasy managers should not be concerned about occasional rest, as Carter's ADP is already quite affordable.
More importantly, if Carter's workload is monitored, it will increase his chances of staying healthy across the entire season.
The 22-year-old flashed elite upside when healthy and could be poised to return to that production, even if given the occasional day off. If Carter performs well in spring training, expect his ADP to climb significantly.
#StraightUpTX Evan Carter battled injuries last season but could be a STEAL in drafts
In 23': the former top prospect held a .306/.413/.645 line with 5 HR 3 SB in his first 23 G
He then hit a .300/.417/.500 in the postseason
Is he on your draft board @TheReal_NFC ?
.....He may… pic.twitter.com/nJY8Neu3UU— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 10, 2025
Update: Carter will begin the season at Triple-A. As a result, he should only be viewed as a stash candidate in deeper AL-only formats.
Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
ADP: 46.7
Lastly, the former fourth-overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft takes the final spot on this list. Langford surprisingly made the Opening Day roster last season after a strong spring training (and just 44 minor league games) but struggled to find consistency.
During his first 31 contests, the Florida product hit an underwhelming .224 AVG and held a 22.5 percent strikeout rate. He then missed time with a hamstring strain.
However, Langford began to find his footing once he returned in late May. Over his final 103 games, the 23-year-old posted a solid .261/.334/.452 line with 22 doubles, 15 home runs, and 18 swiped bags.
Langford brought his game to the next level in September, holding a stellar .330/.386/.610 line with eight long balls.
He placed in the 98th percentile in sprint speed and in the 68th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, suggesting he should see some positive regression during the 2025 season.
It took Langford time to adjust to the majors, but once he did, he was a league-winner. Now, with a full offseason, the sky is the limit for the Florida product.
The Florida product battled a minor oblique injury during the start of spring training but recently returned to the starting lineup, which suggests he will not face any restrictions by Opening Day.
Langford should be viewed as a high-end OF2 with a five-category upside. He could establish himself as a future star in the sport by the end of the season.
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