Winners and Losers of 2025 NFL Free Agency in Fantasy Football

March 17, 2025

Adam Koffler identifies some of the biggest winners and losers coming out of the 2025 NFL Free Agency period. Here are seven winners and losers from Free Agency.

NFL Free Agency has been quite the frenzy. At RotoBaller, we track it all for you right here! It might not always feel like it, but there have been a ton of impactful moves. And with every move comes a fantasy football impact, right?

This article takes a look at some of the top winners and losers coming out of the 2025 NFL Free Agency period. There are still players to be signed, but the most impactful signings have already occurred at this point.

If you're looking for team winners and losers, Joey Pollizze did a great job highlighting them in his latest article. But if you're looking for fantasy football winners and losers coming out of Free Agency, you're in the right spot. Here are some of the top winners and losers from the 2025 NFL Free Agency period.

Fantasy Football Winners of NFL Free Agency

Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers signed the former Steelers running back to a one-year deal worth up to $9.25M. $5.25M is guaranteed, with rushing incentives totaling $4M. In today's NFL, anything over $5M per year is typically starter money. Needless to say, Jim Harbaugh and company got their guy.

With Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins still free agents, the Chargers appear poised to head into the season with a running back stable of Harris, Kimani Vidal, and Hassan Haskins. They'll likely take another guy late in the 2025 NFL Draft but don't expect them to use premium capital on the position.

Harris's claim to fame in his four-year NFL career is that he's never missed a single game. He has also rushed for over 1,000 yards in every season. In Los Angeles, he gets an upgraded offensive line, an upgraded offensive environment, and less competition for touches.

There might not have been a better landing spot for Najee Harris. Per Fantasy Points Data, Harris was eighth in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt on inside zone runs last season. The Chargers ranked 15th in inside zone carries in 2024.

Many mock drafts have Jim Harbaugh once again prioritizing the offensive line in the first round a year after they took Joe Alt fifth overall a year ago. Again, this looks like a match made in heaven, at least for the 2025 season.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Brenton Strange!? Yes, you read that right. Christian Kirk was shipped to Houston and Evan Engram signed a deal with the Broncos. The remaining pass-catchers in Jacksonville are Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Dyami Brown, Parker Washington, and Johnny Mundt. BTJ is the clear alpha, but then the number two spot is up for grabs.

Strange is "ascending and ready to take the next step given the opportunity to do so," according to new GM James Gladstone. Watch him light up talking about the third-year tight end and the opportunity that lies ahead for him:

some Brenton Strange propaganda from #Jaguars GM James Gladstone: pic.twitter.com/jsZ8DdZTJh

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) March 14, 2025

Another positive for Strange is the new coaching staff in Jacksonville. Cade Otton led all tight ends in snap share (92.8 percent) and was second in route participation (85.5 percent) under then-offensive coordinator Liam Coen in 2024. Grant Udinski, the Jags' new offensive coordinator, comes from Minnesota, where T.J. Hockenson was consistently in the top eight in both metrics when healthy.

Playing behind Engram in 2024, Strange didn't get many opportunities to showcase himself as a full-time player. However, he still managed to finish 13th in yards per route run (1.93) and sixth in true catch rate (97.6 percent), per PlayerProfiler.

Lawrence to Brenton Strange for the @Jaguars TD

📺: #JAXvsBUF on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/1fZSLZJ5jw

— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2024

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

For years, Warren has been miscast as a "pass-catching" back. In reality, he's a very good running back who is likely capable of shouldering a heavy workload. Unfortunately, with Najee Harris never missing a game in his career, we've never seen Warren operate as the clear lead dog in the Steelers' backfield.

We're about to see that in 2025. Najee is now a member of the Chargers and the Steelers backfilled him with satellite back Kenneth Gainwell.

Let's give Jaylen Warren a true three-down role and see what happens https://t.co/a5rNNF8MXM pic.twitter.com/bQmRYSG0WU

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 10, 2025

For three straight seasons, Warren has been in the top 10 among running backs in yards created per touch and in the top 13 in yards per touch, per PlayerProfiler. He has a lot of Austin Ekeler in his game. A weapon in the passing game and a highly underrated runner between the tackles. This guy is good, and the Steelers know it.

Jaylen Warren's rank among RBs in missed tackles forced per touch each season:

2022: 6th-best
2023: 1st
2024: 16th-best https://t.co/ANq5DxzZPl pic.twitter.com/qYoldXCTjY

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 10, 2025

Yes, there's a chance his fantasy value comes crashing down should the Steelers decide to use premium draft capital on a running back. But, there's also a chance Warren has done enough in three years to show Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith he's ready for a 60 percent opportunity share in the Pittsburgh backfield.

If and when that happens, it's wheels up for Warren.

Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos

We talked about Brenton Strange as a winner in Jacksonville with Engram's departure. Well, Engram is also a big-time winner coming out of Free Agency. He lands in Denver and gets to play with an ascending second-year quarterback in Bo Nix.

There's also no real alpha in the receiver room. Courtland Sutton had the most targets he's ever had in a single season in 2024 with 135, but he's no Brian Thomas Jr. Engram will be battling for targets with up-and-comers Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr. There's a good chance he's at least second on the team in targets in 2025 when all is said and done.

Just like Najee Harris to Los Angeles, Engram to Denver feels like a match made in heaven. Check this out:

Evan Engram led all tight ends in both receptions (112) and yards (957) from the slot over the last two seasons.

Under Sean Payton, Broncos tight ends have run 52.3% of their routes from the slot, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.@Broncos | #BroncosCountry https://t.co/aQ8Hsw7c9r pic.twitter.com/37ATNgaki0

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 13, 2025

Despite his low average depth of target (5.6 yards), Engram managed to post the second-highest yards per route run (1.89) of his career in 2024. Even at the age of 30, he's shown no signs of slowing down. If anything, he's proven himself again in Jacksonville in the last three seasons after some up-and-down years in New York to start his career.

Fantasy Football Losers of NFL Free Agency

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Pacheco started the 2024 season as the Chiefs' starting running back. However, a fractured fibula in Week 2 derailed his season. That led to Kansas City bringing back former Chief great Kareem Hunt. He stepped right in and became "old reliable."

Pacheco made his return in Week 13, but it was very much a split backfield between him, Hunt, and even Samaje Perine. Perine won't be there in 2025, but the Chiefs did go out and sign former 49er Elijah Mitchell in Free Agency.

And despite many thinking he's lost a step, the Chiefs prioritized re-signing Hunt after seeing what he brought to the table in 2024. That spells trouble for Pacheco, who never saw more than a 45 percent snap share in any game he played with Hunt last season.

But in practice, it made sense. Per PlayerProfiler, Pacheco's efficiency dipped dramatically from 2024 to 2025. He averaged just 3.6 true yards per carry (vs. 4.3 in 2024), 3.1 yards created per touch (vs. 3.6 in 2024), and 4.1 yards per touch (vs. 4.7 in 2024) last season.

Pacheco, a former seventh-round pick in 2022, was always going to face an uphill battle to secure consistent playing time in the NFL. It's unfortunate, but the fractured fibula in Week 2 last season might have been the proverbial nail-in-the-coffin for him.

Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Just a few weeks ago I wrote about McMillan as a possible breakout candidate in 2025. Well, we can probably put that to bed with Chris Godwin re-signing with the Bucs for three more seasons. Not only is he returning to Tampa Bay, but he reportedly turned down a lot more money from the Patriots to do so.

That spells trouble for McMillan, who only got going in his rookie season once the Bucs lost Godwin for the year. Before Godwin's injury, the rookie wideout averaged 1.7 receptions for 18.2 yards on just 3.5 targets per game.

McMillan experienced a "mini-breakout" after the team's bye week, but even still, he never saw more than seven targets in any game during that time. He caught a lot of touchdowns (seven to be exact), but that's unlikely to translate into 2025 with Godwin back in the fold.

McMillan's time could come in a couple of years when Godwin and Mike Evans are finally on the decline, but for now, it doesn't appear as if the 2025 breakout is imminent. Instead, his fantasy value takes a major hit with Godwin back in Tampa Bay for the next few years.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

It doesn't feel good to be off the James Cook hype train once again in 2025, but I'm going to be doing it anyway. It might feel like an insignificant signing, but the Bills are bringing third-down back and pass-catching specialist Ty Johnson back for two more seasons.

It's not as if Johnson stole a ton of work away from Cook in 2024, but he did lower his opportunity. In 2023, when Johnson battled injuries and didn't see the field much, Cook averaged 13.4 weighted opportunities per game. He also had a target share of 10 percent that year, per PlayerProfiler. The 13.4 weighted opportunities were the 10th-most among running backs.

In 2024, with Johnson's snap share jumping from 13 percent to almost 30 percent, Cook's weighted opportunities decreased from 13.4 per game to just 11.5 per game. He went from being in the top 10 in weighted opportunities to just being in the top 25.

Often, looking at a team's usage after their bye week can be a great barometer on how they want to split up the work going forward. Before the bye last season, Cook averaged 16.8 opportunities per game. After the bye, he averaged just 12.8 opportunities per game.

However, Cook's fantasy managers likely didn't care about the decrease in opportunities as he averaged a career-best 1.09 fantasy points per opportunity as a result of his insane 7.5 percent touchdown rate. In 2023, Cook averaged just 0.8 fantasy points per opportunity on a 2.1 percent touchdown rate.

The true numbers probably lie somewhere in the middle, meaning Cook could be in for some regression in fantasy points in 2025.

And let's not forget the Bills still have Ray Davis, a second-year bruiser who has a lot to offer coming out of the backfield as well. Johnson and Davis being in the mix in 2024 led to a snap share of just 49 percent for Cook in 2024. With that kind of snap share, you're praying for elite productivity once again, and that's far from a guarantee.

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