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Andy Smith highlights which fantasy football wide receivers have increased value in PPR leagues compared to standard leagues heading into the 2024 NFL season.
With the NFL Draft behind us, team depth charts are beginning to take shape. Now, we can identify which receiving rooms have a lead alpha that will carry large target shares.
This can be very valuable when identifying which wide receivers will provide more fantasy points in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues compared to standard leagues. In PPR leagues, one reception is worth one point, while receptions are not scored in standard formats. A wide receiver who is given constant looks on every drive can be a PPR cheat code.
By preparing early and understanding your own league scoring system, we can gain a significant advantage in our drafts this summer. In this piece, we’ll delve into which wide receivers can carry a large target share and provide you with not only a safe floor every week but season-long upside.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Leading off this list is the clear No. 1 receiving option in Indianapolis. Last season, Michael Pittman Jr. finished as the WR13 wideout in PPR scoring and WR25 in standard formats.
Pittman caught the fourth-most passes among receivers with 109, but scored only four touchdowns. This suggests that the 26-year-old was a bit unlucky, but it also highlights his ability to get open and make receptions consistently.
Michael Pittman JR Appreciation Post 🦾
— Peyton2Luck™️ (@Peyton2L) June 8, 2024
Pittman's underlying metrics all point toward him being a target magnet again in 2024. He carried a stellar 28.5% team target share and 29.8% team air yards, which placed him in the top 96th and 87th percentiles among all receivers, respectively. These numbers indicate that he is a key part of the team's passing game and is likely to continue to be a high-volume receiver.
While volume is not a concern for Pittman, playmaking ability is, which is why he is more of a WR2-3 in standard leagues than a top-12 option in PPR. He posted a poor 7.8 average depth yards per target and 1.28 air yards per snap, which are not the makings of a big-play receiver. This is why Pittman only caught three passes last season that went for over 40 yards.
The current depth chart will be very similar, with Josh Downs as the No. 2 and rookie Adonai Mitchell as the new No. 3. More importantly, Pittman will be a popular investment in leagues this summer due to his quarterback, Anthony Richardson. Richardson is a rising star and could be in for a big sophomore season after playing in only four games last season.
Draft Pittman with confidence in PPR leagues this summer.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
After missing four games in 2023 and having subpar quarterback play, Diontae Johnson finished as the WR45 in PPR scoring and WR43 in standard scoring. Despite the challenges, Johnson's performance was still respectable, indicating his potential for even better results with improved circumstances.
From 2020-2022, the 27-year-old caught at least 86 receptions, with a high of 107 in 2021, compared to 51 last season. Looking at his track record, I am confident that his lack of receptions last season was a clear outlier and shines more of a light on how poor the Steelers quarterbacks were than Johnson's corresponding numbers.
Even with fewer receptions last season, Johnson still held a strong 18.1% of team targets and was targeted on 21.8% of his routes. These numbers, which are all significantly above average, suggest that Johnson was still getting open at an elite rate, as he has done in years past.
Diontae Johnson’s 2 drops for 2023
Both were on his 1st 2 targets of a rainy game vs Jax. His 3.8% drop rate was the best of his career per PFF pic.twitter.com/sf3T7T1hdL
— Unnecessary Bluntness Owner/Coach/QB (@DuncOnDemand) March 13, 2024
Now, Johnson joins a rebuilding Carolina team with a relatively empty wide receiver room. He will play alongside Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and rookie Xavier Legette. Johnson should be in line to lead this team by a large margin in targets, which would bode well in PPR.
However, will it be the same story with a poor quarterback in 2024? If you believe in Bryce Young, draft Johnson in every league this summer.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk finished as the WR47 in both PPR and standard leagues. Similar to Johnson, I have included Kirk more on optimism about his 2024 outlook than his previous year’s performance, like Pittman.
The Jaguars lost alpha wideout Calvin Ridley in free agency to Tennessee, who had the lion’s share of looks in 2023 in Duval County. Ridley saw 136 targets (top 15 in football), 22.6% of team targets, and 37.2% of team air yards, which placed significantly above average among receivers.
#Jaguars WR Christian Kirk one-handed catch at the first day of OTAs. pic.twitter.com/GbDiqL6giY
— Juston W. Lewis (@JustonLewis_) May 20, 2024
This is excellent news for Kirk, as he should see a significant bump in targets compared to the poor 85 he saw last season.
In fact, in 2022, Kirk was Trevor Lawrence's alpha wideout, and the season went quite well. He finished as the No. 12 receiver in PPR that season with a career-high 84 receptions. That season, he saw 23.2% of team targets and 30.1% of team air yards, which are incredible marks.
Kirk could be in store for the best season of his career and should be a steal in all PPR drafts this summer.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
To close things out, I wanted to include a wideout who is not the alpha in the room but is still very valuable in PPR formats. Jakobi Meyers was the No. 24 receiver in PPR last season, playing behind Davante Adams.
What makes him so interesting is that he saw 19.9% of team targets last season, placing him in the 85th percentile at his position, while Adams saw 33.0% of targets (the best among receivers). It is very impressive to see Meyers still draw a hefty amount of looks playing behind one of the best receivers in football.
WR’s with the highest reception % in the RZ for 2023 (min 10 targets)⤵️‼️
📍Jakobi Meyers - 75% (16 Tgts)
📍Zay Flowers - 73.3% (15 Tgts)
📍Rashee Rice - 72.7% (22 Tgts)
📍Jerry Jeudy - 72.7% (11 Tgts)
📍Courtland Sutton - 70.6% (17 Tgts)
📍Michael Pittman Jr - 70% (20 Tgts) pic.twitter.com/TcmsBk3C7m— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) April 24, 2024
However, he also makes this column because the Raiders lost running back Josh Jacobs to free agency. This opens up even more targets for Meyers, increasing his potential for high target shares. While Adams may get even more opportunities, Meyers will as well, and he should be a steal in all drafts this summer.
Do not be afraid to draft Meyers knowing he will be the No. 2 option in this offense.
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