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Fantasy Football Week 4 Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Lamar Jackson, Mike Evans, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon

Mike Evans - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The weekly busts column at RotoBaller is back for another week! We're far enough into the year that fantasy managers may be worried that some of their players are busts for the season, and not just a must-start having an off day. There are some players that fall into that category (Jahan Dotson, Kyle Pitts, Dameon Pierce, etc.) so far.

Most of the players in this column haven't busted often in 2023. In fact, one has been downright dominant with his play so far.

As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 4, make sure potential fantasy landmines stay on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 4 of the NFL season.

 

Lamar Jackson at Cleveland

Lamar Jackson is having his best statistical passing season when it comes to completion percentage but his yards gained per completion is in the single digits for the first time in his career. The touchdown numbers also aren't there. Plus, he's tied for the league lead in fumbles (four, with two lost).

Season Yards Gained Per Completion
2018 12.1
2019 11.8
2020 11.4
2021 11.7
2022 11
2023 9.7

Todd Monken's new offense hasn't quite clicked yet for Lamar Jackson and Co. and it probably won't click in Week 4, either. The Cleveland Browns' defense has only allowed one touchdown to quarterbacks (a 71-yard pass from Kenny Pickett to George Pickens in Week 2) and negative eight yards rushing to the position. Through three weeks, just 17.62 quarterback fantasy points have been scored against the Browns.

 

Jared Goff at Green Bay

I don't know Jared Goff personally, but I like to believe he is a homebody. How else do you explain the difference in his play at home versus the road since arriving in Detroit?

The former first-overall pick threw 23 of his 29 touchdowns inside Ford Field during the 2022 season. In Week 18 at Green Bay, Goff scored just 9.46 fantasy points. This season, in a victorious Week 1 against Kansas City, the Lions' signal caller recorded just over 14 points. In his other two home games, he's averaging 21.47 points (4 points per passing touchdown, -1 for interceptions).

Because the trend dates all the way back to his first snap as a member of the Lions, it's enough data to buy into the theory. Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, and *winces* Justin Fields against a horrible Denver defense are worth starting over Goff in Week 4.

 

Aaron Jones vs. Detroit

There's optimism that running back Aaron Jones (hamstring) returns to play Thursday night against the Detroit Lions. The former Pro Bowler is officially questionable. He was receiving limited work in practice before Week 3 but the Packers played it safe and held out their best playmaker (possibly due to the knowledge that it was a short week). If Jones does suit up, the assumption is that coach Matt LaFleur will ease him back into action.

The Detroit Lions are astounding against opposing running backs. The unit has allowed 152 yards on the ground out of the backfield on 53 attempts (that's 2.86 yards per carry for those who don't want to pick up the phone calculator).

Jones is not a sit this week but there is more than enough reason to be cautious of a bust game. If he ends up coming through for fantasy managers, it will be through the passing game.

 

Brian Robinson Jr. vs. Philadelphia

Through three weeks, we've collected a clear picture of how Washington head coach Ron Rivera wishes to deploy his running backs. If the Commanders are ahead, Brian Robinson Jr. takes control. If they're playing from behind, Antonio Gibson plays a majority of the snaps.

The Commanders trailed the Bills essentially the entire game in Week 3. That resulted in Robinson receiving 10 carries (and no catches) for 70 yards. This is actually decent production on the limited touches but seven points aren't ideal for fantasy managers. Gibson, on the other hand, played 61% of the snaps (but did even less for fantasy football and lost a fumble).

Commanders Snap Shares Brian Robinson Jr. Antonio Gibson
Week 1 (20-16 W) 60.6% 35.2%
Week 2 (35-33 W) 52.1% 47.9%
Week 3 (3-37 L) 37% 61.1%

Two major matters are working against Robinson in Week 4. Washington is once again a heavy underdog (8.5 points at the time of this writing). Robinson's snap share could suffer if the oddsmakers are correct and the Commanders fall behind early. The Eagles have yielded the least amount of rushing yards and no runner has scored against the Philly front seven yet. Even if the Commanders surprise us and they're in a positive game script, running space will be hard to come by.

 

Breece Hall vs. Kansas City

The New York Jets' offense is the laughingstock of the NFL. You can see it on the face of Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay when he's asked about Zach Wilson.

He's not wrong. The Jets would love to rely on the running game but Breece Hall is still working his way back from his ACL tear and Dalvin Cook is more like Dalvin Cook(ed). Hall's snap percentages have steadily grown week-to-week (31%, 34%, and 49%) but teams are selling out to stop the run. Because of that, his yards per attempt has tumbled.

Wilson's confidence is pushing daises and the Jets have only scored ten points in each of the last two games. Until there's a changing of the guard at quarterback, nobody on the Jets can be trusted, even one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL.

 

Joe Mixon at Tennessee

The numbers haven't clarified which teams have strong pass defenses in the NFL this year. We have an idea, but a few more weeks of data will do wonders. It is, however, no mystery who the good run defenses are. The Tennessee Titans are legit.

Joe Mixon hasn't been awful for fantasy football this season. The running back out of Oklahoma hasn't dipped below 10 points in any game this season but he also hasn't gone over 15 points. Consistency has kept him in the top 15 among running backs through three weeks. Depending on how much work he gets in the passing game, this could be the week that Mixon finds himself scoring in the single digits.

 

Jerome Ford vs. Baltimore

Running back Jerome Ford bailed out fantasy managers with a pair of touchdowns in Week 3. His 10 carries went for a total of 18 yards. A three-yard plunge salvaged his work on the ground and Nick Chubb's replacement also caught a 19-yard touchdown pass. Two touchdowns on 12 touches and 51 total yards is not a sustainable rate.

The defense Ford faced in Week 3 was the Tennessee Titans, who currently surrender the least amount of yards per carry in the league. His Week 4 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, isn't quite as stout but it's no slouch either. They've allowed zero touchdowns in the running game (Zack Moss did catch a touchdown in Week 3).

Tennessee Titans Baltimore Ravens
2.6 yards per carry allowed 3.8 yards per carry allowed
208 rushing yards allowed 277 rushing yards allowed
1 touchdown allowed 0 touchdowns allowed

Kareem Hunt is likely to get more involved in his second week back on the roster as well. The veteran saw 14 snaps against Tennessee, compared to 40 for Ford and eight for Pierre Strong Jr. Be wary about counting on a touchdown again to give you a fantasy performance worth celebrating.

 

Mike Evans at New Orleans

We've reached the next installment of what may be the biggest rivalry between two players on opposite sides of the ball: Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore. There have been fights, ejections, and more than enough words.

Through all of that, the main theme of the matchup has been Lattimore's dominance. In the 13 games since Lattimore was drafted by New Orleans, Evans is averaging under three catches and 47 yards per game. Even when the Pro Bowl cornerback sits, the Saints seemingly have Evans' number.

The 30-year-old receiver is well on his way to his 10th-straight 1,000-yard season in 2023 and has found the endzone in every game so far. But he's also faced three of the eight worst pass defenses (in terms of yards allowed) so far this season. The Tampa Bay offense started to show signs of strain moving the ball down the field against Philadelphia.

It's hard to stress about the WR5 overall. Evans has given fantasy managers zero reason to sit him so far. A lengthy history of struggling against Lattimore and the Saints does some cause concern, though.

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Cincinnati

Ryan Tannehill and DeAndre Hopkins still haven't had enough time to develop a rapport. The new Titan received 13 targets in Week 1 but only 12 in the two games since. It's an understandable result in their game against the Browns, who boast one of the stingiest defenses in football, but Hopkins should have lit up the Chargers (narrator: he did not). The ankle injury he suffered in Week 1 may be lingering and hindering his ability to get open.

The Titans' offense has failed to find paydirt in two of three games this season. Derrick Henry is averaging 3.2 yards per carry (a whole yard worse than his previous low for a season). Treylon Burks is a drop candidate in fantasy leagues (if he hasn't been cut already) and Tannehill looks washed up. It's hard to trust the Titans' offense right now.

 

Quentin Johnston vs. Las Vegas

Fantasy managers drafted Johnston, a first-round pick by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023, with the thought that he would take over should Keenan Allen or Mike Williams miss games due to injury. Williams suffered a torn ACL in Week 3 and will be on the shelf for the remainder of the season.

The rookie out of TCU hasn't been seeing much of the field through the first three games. The 2023 first-round pick hasn't reached the 28% mark for snap share in any game this season. Third-year wide receiver Joshua Palmer played every snap opposite of Allen after the injury to Williams.

Johnston will be on the field more but everything the Chargers have done through training camp and the beginning of the season tells us that they don't believe the rookie is ready to contribute on a consistent basis. He's worthy of a spot on your bench to see if he develops into the big-bodied receiver that the Chargers now lack. Do not insert him into a lineup until Johnston produces.

 

Hunter Henry vs. Dallas

I figured I'd give Kyle Pitts a break from his frequent appearance in the column and single out Hunter Henry as a bust in Week 4. Just as fantasy managers were starting to believe in the veteran in 2023, he disappeared with two catches for 17 yards and no touchdowns in Week 3 against the Jets. The third tight end on the depth chart, Pharaoh Brown, got loose on a 58-yard touchdown instead.

Frankly, Henry may be the best playmaker on this Patriots' offense. Rhamondre Stevenson has looked slow and is losing snaps to Ezekiel Elliott. Kendrick Bourne exploded in Week 1 but lost playing time with the return of DeVante Parker. With a lack of playmakers, good defenses (like the Jets, who the Patriots faced in Week 3) can make things difficult for quarterback Mac Jones.

The Patriots visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. In Week 1, Darren Waller was a no-show against Dallas.  In Week 3, Zach Ertz was limited to two catches for six yards. (We'll skip Week 2 because Tyler Conklin isn't fantasy-relevant but he did have five catches for 50 yards). Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn should focus on Henry first, in his effort to shut down the Patriots' offense.

 



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