Fantasy Football Players With Misleading Numbers Worth Reconsidering In 2024

June 8, 2024

Kacey Kasem looks at six fantasy football players and their situations to see how numbers from 2023 could be misleading. Which players could change their value in 2024?

Fantasy football is one of those games where numbers can be misleading. As we prepare for the 2024 season, looking at numbers from the previous season is crucial. Looking at the situation is also important when viewing those stats.

In 2023, we saw some players leap forward while others were disappointing. Although some stats look underwhelming, it is important to look at all the factors. Was there poor quarterback play? Did a player get injured during the season? Were there too many mouths to feed on the roster? There are plenty of reasons stats could be padded or look worse than they are.

This article highlights six players from the 2023 season who had misleading numbers, either positive or negative. I look at three players who had disappointing numbers in 2023 but are poised to come back strong. Additionally, I take a look at three players who won’t be able to live up to their 2023 seasons.

Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Is his age a misleading number?

The Kansas City Chiefs' 34-year-old superstar tight end finished the 2023 season as TE3 in PPR fantasy football leagues. For most tight ends, this would have been an incredible feat. Those who drafted Kelce in 2023 were disappointed in the numbers he posted throughout the season.

Kelce missed the first game of the 2023 season due to an ankle injury. In 2023, he finished the season with 93 receptions, down from the 110 he gained in 2022. Additionally, Kelce saw his yardage numbers dip from previous years, with the tight end posting 984 yards. His 984-yard performance follows seven seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards. Kelce’s touchdowns were also down, with the veteran pass-catcher hauling in only five scores. He still had solid tight-end numbers, even if they weren’t your typical Kelce numbers.

TRAVIS KELCE TOUCHDOWN! 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/URfceWxlkm

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 28, 2024

Part of Kelce’s issues were drops. He was targeted a team-high 121 times but had seven drops. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes had to deal with most of his pass-catchers dropping the ball, something that needs to be cleaned up for the 2024 season. Kelce had eight dropped passes in 2022, so this has been an issue. Fixing the drops will drastically help Kelce’s numbers.

For those hesitant to take a shot on Kelce in 2024 due to his age and declining numbers, it makes sense. I don’t see a huge drop-off in Kelce’s production heading into 2024, and he’s still going to be a solid playmaker. Mahomes continues to trust him. And remember, Kelce did Kelce things in the postseason. In the four postseason games, he had 23 receptions on 37 targets for 355 air yards. He should continue this when the 2024 season starts.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks

Drafted in 2023 with two stud wide receivers ahead of him, should his role increase in 2024?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, taken by Seattle with the 20th overall pick. His rookie season was not one to write home about, as he had 63 catches on 93 targets, putting up four scores and 628 yards. He was drafted onto a team with two great wide receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, so the landing spot wasn’t ideal for Year 1.

Smith-Njigba missed valuable preseason time with a broken wrist. The preseason is important for rookies who are getting adjusted to playing in the pros. Although he was cleared to play in the first game of the season, it would have been beneficial for him to get that preseason under his belt.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s year two season is going to be so lit. pic.twitter.com/nXwf7vDMbH

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) December 19, 2023

The Seahawks wide receiver had a slow start to the season, but his route running carried over from his Ohio State days. He was drafted as a player the Seahawks didn’t need, but they had two first-round draft picks in 2023 and decided to take a shot on the best wideout on the board. His first season in the league wasn’t impressive by any means, but he was a luxury pick. Thinking he’d be a stud in Year 1 with two other capable wideouts around him was wishful thinking.

Now that new head coach Mike Macdonald and new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb are in town, look for Smith-Njigba’s numbers to improve. Macdonald and Grubb should figure out the perfect way to use Smith-Njigba, and if he can be more than just a part-time slot receiver, it’s worth chasing his upside.

Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Touchdowns and yardage down, but can we blame a lot of it on drops?

Another Chiefs player to take a look at when it comes to misleading numbers is quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He finished the 2023 season as QB8 in PPR fantasy football leagues. Many took Mahomes as QB1, so he disappointed when it came to ADP. In his 2023 season, Mahomes tallied 4,183 passing yards with 27 touchdowns. The veteran QB attempted 597 passes and completed 401 of them.

The Chiefs had the worst drop issues in the league in 2023. They posted an average of 2.6 drops per game, the most in the league. Mahomes’ pass-catchers dropped 44 balls in 2023, with a 6.9 percent drop rate. Seven players on the Chiefs roster had three or more drops, with Rashee Rice dropping eight balls and Travis Kelce dropping seven.

Patrick Mahomes had made 2 FANTASTIC throws to MVS and Watson that could've been big time plays, but both had been dropped

League high 26 drops for the Chiefs offense and they had 2 more massive ones at the absolute WRONG time pic.twitter.com/a3fnvTjdkl

— Dalton Feely (@dfeely14) November 21, 2023

In 2022, the Chiefs had 2.0 drops per game, ranking 19th in drop percentage. 2023 saw Kansas City dropping 2.6 balls per game, moving it to first in drop percentage. Keegan Abdoo with Next Gen Stats stated Mahomes lost 363 expected yards to drops in 2023.

Mahomes has had two 5,000-yard passing seasons and had one season where he threw for 50 touchdowns. Tyreek Hill’s departure from the Chiefs was one of the reasons Mahomes’ numbers haven’t been as good as they once were. Now, Kansas City has Marquise Brown on the roster, someone who can be that big-play guy for the Chiefs. They also spent a first-rounder on Xavier Worthy in the 2024 NFL Draft. Mahomes needs his playmakers to catch the football, something they’ll be working on this season.

Raheem Mostert - RB, Miami Dolphins

Will this be the year Father Time catches up to Raheem Mostert?

Last season, Mostert had a career year. He was a top running back for fantasy football and was taken late in drafts. One thing to look at is his touchdown numbers. He had 18 rushing scores in 2023, the most by a running back. Additionally, he was tied with Christian McCaffrey for total scores by a running back with 21. It would be hard to repeat that in 2024. Mostert’s fantasy numbers were padded with touchdowns, which is part of the reason his overall fantasy numbers were so good in 2023.

What Mostert did last season was incredible, but time will tell if he can continue to put up those numbers. 21 total touchdowns would be hard to repeat, especially now that De'Von Achane will get more opportunities. Mostert is in his age-32 season, and it would be reasonable to think his best days are behind him.

Given the Raheem Mostert news, there are lots of questions about De'Von Achane.

I had a chance to analyze and evaluate a few things.

Achane is a high-end RB2.

In many scenarios you should start him.

Please repost. 😎pic.twitter.com/3U5tpIcQ5W

— Moody (@EricNMoody) December 31, 2023

Mostert totaled 14 rushing scores and 19 total touchdowns in the eight seasons before 2023. Regression is coming, especially after suffering knee and ankle injuries at the end of the season.

The Dolphins drafted running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s an explosive runner who could eat into Mostert’s playing time. With a crowded backfield and age being an issue, Mostert won’t have the monster season he did last year.

David Njoku - TE, Cleveland Browns

Was the quarterback the reason his numbers were so good?

David Njoku burst back into the scene with a productive 2023 season. Of course, just like we expected, Joe Flacco was the quarterback who helped Njoku have a big year, not Deshaun Watson. With Watson under center, Njoku averaged 38.3 yards on 5.8 targets per game. Flacco and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback saw Njoku gain an average of 65.2 yards on 8.8 targets per game.

Njoku totaled five single-digit fantasy weeks. He had two monster games in Week 14 and Week 15, with 27.1 PPR fantasy points and 26.4 PPR fantasy points, respectively. He also had career highs in receptions (81), targets (123), receiving yards (862), and touchdowns (six). Most of this was due to Flacco taking over when Watson was injured.

FLACCO TO NJOKU 🎯

pic.twitter.com/ItvaWwzJo8

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 13, 2024

Not only will Watson come back as the starter in 2024, but the Browns roster has changed a bit with wideout Jerry Jeudy coming over from the Broncos. Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore are also on the roster. Njoku’s numbers should go down with Watson tossing the ball to these targets.

He should be a solid tight end for fantasy football but don’t expect his numbers to look like they did in 2023. Flacco was the best thing for Njoku’s fantasy value.

Davante Adams - WR, Las Vegas Raiders

League-high target share, but does that equate to anything?

In 2023, Davante Adams played in 17 games, catching 103 passes for 1,144 yards and eight touchdowns. The 31-year-old veteran wide receiver had a league-high target share last season with 33% of the targets. He was targeted in the red zone a total of 30 times. Throughout the season, his production was up and down.

Having substandard quarterback play was one reason for Adams' decline. In 2022 with Derek Carr under center, Adams had 15.2 yards per reception and 14 scores. With Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O'Connell at quarterback in 2023, Adams had 6.5 yards per target. His 1,144 yards ranked him as 15th in wide receiver receiving yards.

Davante Adams with a BAD drop here 😬 pic.twitter.com/F2hQb8Jnv5

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 31, 2023

With the impressive target share, it would be expected that Adams would go for more than 1,144 yards. He had eight drops in 2023, which was the sixth most by a pass-catcher. This season, Adams will have either O’Connell or Gardner Minshew II throwing him the ball.

This doesn’t bode well for his fantasy stats as the Raiders didn’t draft a quarterback. He’ll need O’Connell or Minshew to step up and get him the ball if his numbers want to improve from 2023. The target share is there, but can he do anything with it?

More Fantasy Football Analysis