Dynasty Football Mock Draft Analysis (Rounds 4-9)

February 3, 2019

The Rotoballer staff started their first dynasty football startup mock of the 2019 offseason. Cliff Clinton highlights the best picks, worst picks, and how strategies are forming for these dynasty mock teams in rounds 4-9.

As we await the Super Bowl, the RotoBaller staff has already started preparing for the 2019 season with a Way Too Early Dynasty League Startup Mock Draft. We've just put a bow on this thing, after spending the last couple of weeks making excuses about each pick, insulting each other, and generally having the time of our lives while slow drafting.

This is a 12-team, one-quarterback, PPR dynasty league. To add some more context, we were unable to trade draft picks and the incoming 2019 rookie class was not made available since draft declarations were not yet finished, so keep that in mind when looking over the picks. Rookies being added will change where some players go in the next mock draft we conduct.

Let's take a quick look at the fourth through ninth rounds and the highlights for each and every drafter. Playing catch up? Check out our round one recap here, then rounds two and three here. If you're curious what the whole draft board looks like, check it out right here.

Dynasty Mock Draft Board

Rounds 4-9 Analysis

Cliff Clinton

Pick 4.1, Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Pick 5.12, Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Pick 6.1, Kareem Hunt (RB, FA)
Pick 7.12, Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Pick 8.1, Lamar Miller (RB, HOU)
Pick 9.12, Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)

Best Pick: He is going to come up a lot in these articles going forward, but I was excited to find Kareem Hunt dropping to me at the beginning of the sixth round. It didn't take long for publications to start circling the wagon for adding Hunt to their team (Lions and Bears, oh my god it's only been a few months...), and both NBC Sports and ESPN are reporting that Hunt has multiple suitors.

Much like Ezekiel Elliott in 2017, you find yourself moving past if and deciding on when, and if you're ok adding Kareem Hunt, this will be about the lowest you can take him. For dynasty purposes, I find myself with a wealth of RBs

Worst Pick: What's worse, using my seventh-round pick on an injured QB or using my ninth round pick on a second injured QB? Cam Newton and Jimmy Garoppolo are both going to be great dynasty pieces going forward, but taking anyone injured that high, let alone both, were stupid picks that became more running joke than legitimate strategy.

One Big Thought: My strategy for any new dynasty league is more about setting myself up long-term. Fine, that's not anything new, nor is it interesting in any way. But I'm willing to throw the first year out if I think it'll set me up better for future years. If Kareem Hunt and Cam Newton only play part of the year, I'm certainly set up fine for the future with a very young WR corps.

Dominick Petrillo

Pick 4.2, Leonard Fournette (RB, JAX)
Pick 5.11, David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Pick 6.2, Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)
Pick 7.11, Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Pick 8.2, Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Pick 9.11, Jay Ajayi (RB, PHI)

Best Pick: Leonard Fournette owners will not be going back to Leonard Fournette with any great enthusiasm, and it's certainly the riskiest RB pick in the fourth round. But consider this; Fournette is a 24-year old in a make-or-break season, who will still likely end up in a more favorable situation in 2020. You don't need Fournette to be the best this year, but there's as much short-term bounce-back potential as there is potential to achieve a long-term ceiling.

Worst Pick: I didn't mind the Jay Ajayi pick at the time, and I still don't know if it's the worst pick among this grouping, Ajayi's ACL injury and impending FA leaves me thinking that the once-trendy RB will be damned to the middle of a committee. If I already know I'm dealing with a guy who will be fighting for playing time, why not go with Ronald Jones or D'Onta Foreman and get some longterm potential out of this pick?

One Big Thought: If I'm Dom, I'm trading immediately to better myself at the WR position at the risk of sacrificing one of two excellent QBs or a bounty of RBs. There is as much potential in this crop of young players as there is a chance for it to backfire.

Kyle Richardson

Pick 4.3, Marlon Mack (RB, IND)
Pick 5.10, Mark Ingram (RB, NO)
Pick 6.3, Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Pick 7.10, Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)
Pick 8.3, Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA)
Pick 9.10, Tre'Quan Smith (WR, NO).

Best Pick: We're going to get to the point in this draft pretty quickly where we talk about what picks are good for this year and what picks are good for future building. Being able to grab both Tyler Boyd and Tre'Quan Smith is ultimately both, keeping this team young while also not relying too heavily on the unproven players to carry your team. There was a collective groan when Tyler Boyd came off the board, because he's a #2 receiver in his offense with the 2019 fantasy floor of a BYE week fill-in (if he's like the second half of the 2018 season) with a ceiling of a WR2 (as he was much of the first half.) Tre'Quan Smith is less sure in this case, but he's a bench piece that is absolutely worth the roll of the dice, arguably drafted a round too late.

Worst Pick: Everyone will rise and fall with the gossip surround Le'Veon Bell's landing spot, but Kenyan Drake would be banished to the final-round dungeon if Bell got his way and ended up near the shores of Miami. Drake is 24, and could be due for a bounce-back if he's gotten the trust of whoever his new coach ends up being, but that is a big ask after the back has languished in an offense that could have used his potential steadiness if it indeed existed. Normally I am for picking up the exact type of player I just described at just about player #100 in the draft, but I think Kyle could've set himself up better here with one of the remaining RB's (Matt Breida, mostly) or his first QB

One Big Thought: This team checked every box that doesn't involve a TE or a QB. Get a whole bunch of quality RBs and WRs, keep them under a certain age (he nails this move save for Mark Ingram, but I can't fault him for that pick) and just keep drafting quality over need. It's almost certainly going to work out for short-term and long-term needs, now we would ideally wait for 2019 and the remainder of the picks to see what happens next.

Matt Terelle

Pick 4.4, Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Pick 5.9, Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Pick 6.4, Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
Pick 7.9, James Washington (WR, PIT)
Pick 8.4, Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Pick 9.9, Nyheim Hines (RB, IND)

Best Pick: Nyheim Hines is a sneaky pick at about the time everyone is loading up on dynasty hold-ons and veteran dart throws. The pass-catcher had a season with bookend success, but saw his role shift with Marlon Mack's return. Analysts will likely throw "Hines" and "handcuff" together and say there's upside, but in reality there could be a significant role for the young back in an offense where Luck may be coaxed into throwing short and often.

Worst Pick: I get why you look at Derrick Henry here after his dynamic fantasy playoff run campaign and think it's sustainable, but unless you're in the room and hear the new offensive coordinator take a blood oath that he will run Derrick Henry on downs 1-4 or so help him, you cannot pick him this high. We've seen Derrick Henry start the season as the no-brainer starter. We've understood that the 25-year Crimson Tide product should have been smoking defenses awhile ago. There is so much we think about Derrick Henry as a potential player, and have only started to see what that could look like.

It means that Matt is either a trusting man building his dynasty with the right piece while we all missed the obvious breakout, or it's too early, even in dynasty. We'll find out.

One Big Thought: There are enough "hopefully he gets better" players on this list that Matt's team isn't primed to be competitive immediately, and if things don't swing just the right way, at all. Godwin, Penny, and Washington are all square pegs in the "let's hope he gets the workload and trust" holes, and too many of those guys on the same team means a chance for more misses than hits.

Justin Carter

Pick 4.5, T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
Pick 5.8, Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Pick 6.5, Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Pick 7.8, Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
Pick 8.5, Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Pick 9.8, Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)

Best Pick: It's insane that TY Hilton was picked in the same round as Derrick Henry, as if they are both question marks for success. Yes, T.Y. Hilton is 29 years old and the universal rule of thumb is don't lean on a guy in his 30s for a dynasty rebuild. But Hilton is set up for 2-3 years of WR1 success, and there's a serious argument to be made for him being as valuable long-term as Antonio Brown. I love this pairing with Michael Thomas, I love it with Justin's young RBs. I love the whole thing.

Worst Pick: I can't blame the Christian Kirk choice on Justin, because Larry Fitzgerald announced his return to clog up the slot for the Arizona Cardinals for another year after Justin made this choice. Kirk feels like a reach in a round where so much quality talent came off the board, and though I think he's another good long-term fit, it could've waited another round or two.

One Big Thought: We all fell asleep and let Justin draft a wonderful team, and he's set at all positions through nine rounds in a way that most of us will be envious of. The Kirk selection aside, you cannot find another miss here.

Keith Hernandez

Pick 4.6, Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
Pick 5.7, Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI)
Pick 6.6, Royce Freeman (RB, DEN)
Pick 7.7, Dante Pettis (WR, SF)
Pick 8.6, Keke Coutee (WR, HOU)
Pick 9.7, Antonio Callaway (WR, CLE)

Best Pick: Keke Coutee was taken in just the right place here, if not slightly too low, if he can stay healthy. He'll fight with Will Fuller V to be the #2 receiver on the Houston Texans, and benefit immediately if anyone else gets injured. He saw a handful of games with a great workload and obvious trust from Deshaun Watson. He goes in the eighth round. These are all facts, facts that should actively discouraging you from instead choosing a guy like Kenyan Drake in this round instead.

Worst Pick: I would've been mad at another apart from the Phillip Lindsay owner picking Royce Freeman, but I'm mad at anyone picking Royce Freeman in the sixth round. It feels just like last round I was saying the sixth round was chock with talent that fell and was ripe to be picked apart. Freeman ain't that, unless he suddenly ends up somewhere else.

One Big Thought: Keith front-loaded his draft with quality talent, but his 5-9 rounds are a bit rockier than I would feel comfortable with. In six rounds, he's gotten all of one backfield wrapped up and a handful of "could be" receivers.

Frankie Soler

Pick 4.7, AJ Green (WR, CIN)
Pick 5.6, Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL)
Pick 6.7, James White (RB, NE)
Pick 7.6, Evan Engram (TE NYG)
Pick 8.7, Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)
Pick 9.6, Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)

Best Pick: How come no one believes in James White? Frankie's 4-9 rounds are a tale of two RB's for me (we'll get there in a second), but White finished as a top-10 RB in PPR whose only crime is not being quite as dominant in the playoffs as he was in the regular season. White is 27, meaning that in a notoriously fickle Patriots offense, he may not be the absolute best dynasty play, but picking him in the sixth round means that Frankie has a win-now piece that was drafted for a bench price.

Worst Pick: Tevin Coleman will be a 26-year old free agent when 2019 rolls around, and I wonder if teams will think of Coleman the way I do; the running back who could never quite hold onto the job actually saw less work after Devonta Freeman went out, never topping more than 15 rushing attempts after the team's BYE in week 8. Coleman is a fine value pick, but I'd rather have him somewhere in the 7th or 8th and see how the situation ends up playing out. Truthfully, I can't see Coleman being someone that should be reached for, even in most backfield situations.

One Big Thought: Every pick in these analyzed rounds puts Frankie in a win-now position. Age or disqualifying elements were not factored in here, each time (save for the one) picking the best player available despite age or injury. Frankie's first four picks were setting up the best RB/WR core, and everything else constituted smart depth or line-up picks for a team trying to win now. Even if it's not my strategy, this team should ideally be deep enough and have success to be competitive.

Pierre Camus

Pick 4.8, Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Pick 5.5, Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Pick 6.8, Will Fuller (WR, HOU)
Pick 7.5, Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Pick 8.8, Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Pick 9.5, D'Onta Foreman (RB, HOU)

Best Pick: Pull out the hot take fire engine, because I'm very much on board with grabbing Baker Mayfield a little early in dynasty. The seventh round is probably about where you'd have to take him in a re-draft, but Pierre grabs the fifth quarterback off the board, and after a likely Offensive Rookie of the Year season, it's exciting to grab that talent. I would even go as far to argue that with so little RB talent available there, grabbing your favorite dynasty QB as he enters an improved system is a hard choice to pass up.

Worst Pick: After two straight years of thinking I'm buying low on Corey Davis, he is yet another Tennessee Titan who went in the fourth round of this draft that made absolutely no sense. Davis is still the target leader on this Titan team, who never had double-digit receptions in a single game, and only topped five receptions twice in eight games. Davis is a should player. Should be the guy. Should be getting more work. Should have a better relationship with his QB where factors like "trust" and "dependability" aren't the nagging factors at his heels. Should's be damned, Davis still isn't, and the thought of owning him for multiple seasons has me exhausted already.

One Big Thought: Pierre went young here. Really young. There's no one in this round over the age of 25, which is exciting. But it means that with this team, Pierre is either gonna have immediate success or a long drought while he waits. If we knew which was going to happen, we'd be making money on ludicrous fantasy betting and not sharing it online.

Chris Mangano

Pick 4.9, Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Pick 5.4, Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Pick 6.9, Sammy Watkins (WR, KC)
Pick 7.4, Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Pick 8.9, OJ Howard (TE, TB)
Pick 9.4, Julian Edelman (WR, NE)

Best Pick: Chris will tell you how Chris did in podcast form I'm sure, but I have to give him credit for two picks here. O.J. Howard is a top-5 TE in 2019, if not possibly the best player at that position in dynasty. Hell, I'll be trying to trade for him before this article publishes. Julian Edelman is on the other end of the spectrum, but an equally enjoyable and crafty pick; he'll be 33 when the season kicks off, and yet a top-20 receiver despite missing the first four games of 2018 via suspension. Why not grab a guy in the NINTH round who is worth at least a year of WR2 fantasy success as a ceiling. He's building a great young team that is also equipped to win now. That's a hard task that, if done correctly, can make you unstoppable in this format.

Worst Pick: After praising the Baker pick above, I have to point to Jared Goff in the seventh with cartoon question marks above my head. With Wilson and Cam available later on in this round, I'm left wondering why pick a guy who defenses were starting to figure out at the end of the season as the pick that demands the most reliability? It's an easy criticism to scoff at considering, again, Mayfield turned the ball over the exact same amount of times.

But in 2017, I wrote that Jared Goff was a deep ball wizard whose value was being misunderstood, a value pick for the 2018 season who could eliminate the turnovers and find some crazy value for his owners. Instead, Goff almost doubled his interceptions alone, with nine total turnovers in the last five weeks. Considering this problem is getting worse and not better, I'm just a little apprehensive about grabbing Goff here.

One Big Thought: Chris's team, ultimately, has no fault, simply Achilles Heel's. There are a lot of great pieces, a lot of talent, and as noted above, the potential to navigate success as long as he's got decent rookie drafts in the coming years. This team does need to get younger at the pass catcher position overall, but that problem can be solved on waivers and with rookies.

Gage Bridgford

Pick 4.10, Andrew Luck (QB, IND)
Pick 5.3, Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Pick 6.10, Damien Williams (RB, KC)
Pick 7.3, Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Pick 8.10, Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF)
Pick 9.3, Eric Ebron (TE, IND)

Best Pick: Unless the Chiefs go and draft a running back in the first two rounds, Damien Williams is the starting running back in the AFC's most dynamic offense. The team has him catching passes and running out of the backfield enough, and his situation is so good it's hard not to take him here, if not earlier. Williams will either skyrocket out of this spot or drop to a dramatic degree, all dependent on the team's off-season moves.

Gage also had really smart picks in Calvin Ridley, who finished as WR #22 and the clear number two option in an offense run by one of the leagues best (and most underrated) QBs in the NFL, and Tyler Lockett, who finished at #16. Neither guy is yet 27, with great QB situations and dynamic relationships. It helps shore up a position that Gage arguably left hanging far too late, but he maneuvered it beautifully.

Worst Pick: It's fun that I get to do this finally; No One. Seriously, even if I'm nervous about Ebron repeating a stellar season, or am left wondering if Marquise Goodwin is gonna stay healthy, not a single one of these even qualifies as a pick that shores up question marks. The right players. The right place. The right time. Each and every one.

One Big Thought: Gage had my least favorite selections of the previous rounds, but is my clear favorite for best picks in rounds 4-9. It's rare you can make up for early misses, but Gage's team may be just strong enough to do it now.

Richard King

Pick 4.11, Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI)
RB 5.2, Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)
Pick 6.11, Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Pick 7.2, Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF)
Pick 8.11, Golden Tate (WR, PHI)
Pick 9.2, Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Best Pick: I had to get Jerick McKinnon in the fifth round of drafts last year, and though I immediately suffered the cruel fate of lady injury, McKinnon's had a full year to rehab and is now catching balls from a similarly-rehabbing Jimmy Garoppollo. They hoped he'd have a bell-cow season last year, and the team really looked to him to carry the weight. Matt Breida was fine, but a healthy McKinnon should have the run of this backfield, and he's the last player of that talent and potential to come off the board. The potential value is appetizing.

Worst Pick: Golden Tate is entering his age-31 season as a WR rapidly losing standing on his own team, with 12 total receptions in the last four games of 2018. He went before Julian Edelman. If you can explain it to me slowly about why this is anything but uninspiring bench depth, I'd welcome it.

One Big Thought: I'm having trouble putting together a big grade for Richard's team. I like his first three rounds just fine. I like his 4-9 rounds just fine. Aaron Rodgers should be better. Devonta Freeman should be healthy. Tarik Cohen should be good. These are... fine. I'm just having trouble finding anything to be overexcited or comforted about. There's always one of these teams.

Steve Rebeiro

Pick 4.12, Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Pick 5.1, Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Pick 6.12, Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)
Pick 7.1, Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)
Pick 8.12, Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Pick 9.1, Matt Breida (RB, SF)

Best Pick: Chris Carson in the fourth round is the stuff ZeroRB fan-fiction novels are made of. Not yet 25 until a few weeks into the season, Carson has long erased the debate that the de facto guy in the backfield in Seattle is up for grabs, even with the drafting of Rashaad Penny. Steve may have found grabbing Penny early or trading for him a way to take care of the backfield as a whole, but man, I have to simply salivate at this pick.

Worst Pick: I don't begrudge anyone taking Dak Prescott, and I already noted how I ruined the QB portion of the draft with my recklessness, but if you're not committing to taking one of the young studs early, you certainly don't need to reach for the second or third round of guys before double-digit rounds (where we saw Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, and Drew Brees go).

One Big Thought: Steve also hoped to engineer a younger upside team, reminding himself that Jarvis Landry has a few years left of prime production left in Cleveland, and betting on Chris Carson, Anthony Miller, and Matt Breida to outperform their 2018 and deliver in a big way. I wish he would have committed to the strategy and stayed away from guys like Doug Baldwin, but not a lot to critique here either; simply a strategy that I think could have been executed more fully.

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