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We’re rounding around week four of the fantasy baseball season. I know it takes some time to settle in, but there is no time to waste. Fantasy baseball necessitates hyper-vigilance, especially in deeper leagues where the waiver wires are quickly stripped of talent. This weekly article will outline the upcoming schedule, two-start pitchers, and a few waiver targets that are rostered in less than 5% of leagues.
It’s good practice to maximize at-bats and starts. A quick look at upcoming schedules for the second week of the MLB season could end up giving you the edge in this week’s play. There are plenty of two-start pitchers this week who should end up providing great value.
This article will discuss some deeper-league fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for week four, April 17 through April 23. Often, guys who make hot starts typically extend them until at least June, so even if it is just the first week of the season, the waiver wires are the hottest they’ll ever be. Rostered percentages can change quickly. So be quick to check your leagues for their availability. Key point - this list will focus on rostered players in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues.
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Fantasy Baseball Schedule Outlook
This week has some great schedules to target for fantasy. There are still no teams with eight games on their schedule this week. Sadly, we have our first scheduled five-game week. Avoid waiver wire pick-ups of Orioles and Nationals players if you can. There are a couple of teams with a full slate of games this week. Powerhouse teams like the Dodgers, Mets, and Padres are all good teams to target this week.
In this week’s weather report: the Minneapolis area is projected to see eight inches of snow this Sunday and two more inches next Friday. With that level of snowfall, their weekend series against the Nationals may now be in peril. Outside of that, an inch of rain in the Georgia area, but that likely won’t be heavy enough for cancellation.
- 7 Games- BOS, LAA, NYM, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, CHC, CIN, ARI, COL, LAD
- 6 Games- CLE, CWS, DET, HOU, SEA, TEX, LAD, MIA, KC, TOR, ATL, MIN, NYY, OAK, TB, MIL, STL
- 5 Games - BAL, WAS
Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers
With the season settling in, there are starting pitchers of varying quality in this week’s two-start list. For more insight, check out Justin Raffone’s article on this week’s two-start pitchers.
- Merrill Kelly (@ STL, vs. SD)
- Drey Jameson (@ STL, vs. SD)
- Spencer Strider (@ SD, vs. HOU
- Hayden Wesneski (@ OAK, vs. LAD)
- Marcus Stroman (@ OAK, vs. LAD)
- Hunter Greene (vs. TB, @ PIT)
- Nick Lodolo (vs. TB, @ PIT)
- Kyle Freeland (vs. PIT, @ PHI)
- Jose Urena (vs. PIT, @ PHI)
- Dustin May (vs. NYM, @ CHC)
- Clayton Kershaw (vs. NYM, @ CHC)
- Jesus Luzardo (vs. SF, @ CLE)
- Corbin Burnes (@ SEA, vs. BOS)
- David Peterson (@ LAD, @ SF)
- Tylor Megill (@ LAD, @ SF)
- Zack Wheeler (@ CWS, vs. COL)
- Bailey Falter (@ CWS, vs. COL)
- Rich Hill (@ COL, vs. CIN)
- Vince Velasquez (@ COL, vs. CIN)
- Ryan Weathers (vs. ATL, @ ARI)
- Alex Wood (@ MIA, vs. NYM)
- Alex Cobb (@ MIA, vs. NYM)
- Jack Flaherty (vs. ARI, @ SEA)
- Jordan Montgomery (vs. ARI, @ SEA)
- Chris Sale (vs. LAA, @ MIL)
- Corey Kluber (vs. LAA, @ MIL)
- Hunter Gaddis (@ DET, vs. MIA)
- Lance Lynn (vs. PHI, @ TB)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. CLE, @ BAL)
- Cristian Javier (vs. TOR, @ ATL)
- Jordan Lyles (vs. TEX, @ LAA)
- Shohei Ohtani (@ BOS, vs. KC)
- Sonny Gray (@ BOS, vs. WAS)
- Clarke Schmidt (vs. LAA, vs. TOR)
- Kyle Muller (vs. CHC, @ TEX)
- Chris Flexen (vs. MIL, vs. STL)
- Jacob deGrom (@ KC, vs. OAK)
- Kevin Gausman (@ HOU, @ NYY)
Deeper Infield Waiver Wire Pickups
Yuli Gurriel (1B), Miami Marlins
4% Rostered
The former Astros fan-favorite was left stranded in free agency. The Marlins took a chance on the 38-year-old in the 11th hour with a minor-league deal. As a major-league backup, Gurriel has delivered a .300/.323/.433 line through eight games.
The veteran is still among the league’s best when it comes to plate discipline, with just a 14.3% whiff rate and a 12.9% K rate. The rest of his numbers are mostly in line with his career averages. As a career .776 OPS guy, you’ll want Gurriel on your fantasy team.
The main flaw with Gurriel is the irregularity in his playing time. However, as the only quality first baseman on the Marlins, it won’t take much for Gurriel to become fantasy relevant. It’ll take an injury or slump to one of Avisail Garcia, Garrett Cooper, or Jorge Soler for Gurriel to become an everyday starter again. There’s a good chance that the Marlins reshuffle their lineup to have gold-glove winner Gurriel at 1B after a few more games of Avisail Garcia and his .174 wOBA.
Nick Maton (2B/OF), Detroit Tigers
2% Rostered
Nick Maton came along with Matt Vierling in the Gregory Soto trade. As a Philadelphia Phillie last year, Maton slashed .250/.341/.514 with five home runs in 25 games. With more playing time expected in a shallow Tigers roster, there was hope that Maton would be a more productive option in fantasy. On the surface, it doesn’t look too good. The 26-year-old is batting under the Mendoza line and has a 30.2% strikeout rate.
However, there’s still some fantasy appeal for Maton. He already has three home runs on the season, giving him a surprise power appeal. Maton has also often batted lead-off for these Tigers, giving him decent roto appeal. And that .194 batting average doesn’t look all that horrible when you notice the .355 wOBA.
Maton delivers in the Nick of time! pic.twitter.com/bqKoiDToru
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) April 15, 2023
The Tigers lineup seems like a talentless abyss, but better days are in store if talented guys like Nick Maton can get bat-to-ball.
Justyn-Henry Malloy (3B/OF), Detroit Tigers
0% Rostered
One of the reasons that there could be better days for the Tigers is their seventh-ranked prospect, Justyn-Henry Malloy.
Malloy was one of the pieces the Tigers acquired from the Joe Jimenez trade. The third-baseman has been great in Triple-A this year with a .364/.533/.477, one home run, nine RBI, and a 23.3% walk rate through 13 games.
Every Jonathan Schoop start is another 40-pound weight on the camel’s back. It will get to a certain point where the Tigers feel that they have to release/DFA their washed-up third baseman. And when that day comes, Justyn-Henry Malloy is likely the Tigers’ first call-up.
The Georgia Tech product has been incredibly successful in the minors and will be incredibly valuable in OBP leagues if he can adjust well to major-league pitching. With the Tigers in a rut, Malloy should be called up sooner rather than later.
Deeper Outfield Waiver Wire Pickups
Eddie Rosario (OF), Atlanta Braves
3% Rostered
If there's a sleeper out there, it is Eddie Rosario. Eddie Rosario has a wRC+ of 65 and a .225 batting average; that does not look good. But a quick look at his expected statistics, and you'll be tripping over your feet running to get him off your waiver wires.
Rosario has a .310 xBA, a .586 xSLG, and a .394 xWOBA. Of course, expected statistics are never something you should solely rely on. The Puerto Rican native holds a career-high average exit velocity of 89.3 mph and has a barrel rate of 12.5%. With an elite lineup surrounding him in Atlanta, it's likely a matter of days before Eddie Rosario is rostered heavily.
Franmil Reyes (OF), Kansas City Royals
3% Rostered
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Believe it or not, it has only been two years since Franmil Reyes was a 30-HR guy. But after a 2022 season where he held a .208 wOBA, it feels like all hope is lost with the 27-year-old. His abysmal 2022 season may still stick in our memories, but the version of Franmil Reyes we all loved is still locked away, but itching to come out.
The Dominican Republic native is still mostly doing all of the good things he did in that 30-homer 2021 season. He already has two home runs this season. His average exit velocity of 93.6 mph is in the 91st percentile of the league. He’s barreling more than he ever has, and his 8.6% walk rate is an improvement over last year’s 6.3% mark.
The only thing troubling Reyes is the inability to make contact. His 60.7% contact rate is a career-low, and a 35.3% O-Contact rate is deeply troubling. The fix to that would be a focus on not chasing as often. Reyes has a chase rate of 33.3%, but his career average chase rate is 28.1%.
For now, Reyes is a good power bat who may tank your average. However, he can be a very productive fantasy bat if he can get back to the plate discipline of his past. If you can withstand the tank in AVG for a couple of weeks, Reyes is one of the best waiver wire pickups for power.
Conner Capel (OF), Oakland Athletics
0% Rostered
In a team as lowly as the Athletics, you wouldn’t imagine their backup outfielder is any good in fantasy baseball. You imagine wrong.
Capel is having a decent 2023 season, slashing .292/.370/.333 with three stolen bases in 11 games. A lack of playing time has doomed the Texas native to fantasy irrelevance. But with starting outfielder Seth Brown out for at least a month, it’s time to hop aboard the Conner Capel train. Having only 27 at-bats means there isn’t much to react to when it comes to Statcast data, but Capel generally profiles as a net-positive player.
His 40% K rate stands out, but that is a serious deviation from last year’s 16.9% K rate and his projected 22% K rate. He hasn't offered much in the power department this year, but he hit three dingers in 22 games last year. His steal numbers speak for themselves, and even with expected regression, he's an average hitter (that's a good thing for an Oakland Athletics player). That's a solid fantasy cog if I've ever seen one.
The Capel train engines are choo-choo-ing; buy your tickets and hop aboard.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF), Toronto Blue Jays
5% Rostered
Kevin Kiermaier is not a name that usually comes up in fantasy baseball conversations. Despite playing on some powerhouse Rays team, the defensive-first outfielder has never been touted as a sleeper pick. His brand recognition has accordingly sunk, and he is now only rostered in 5% of Yahoo leagues.
Now with the Blue Jays, Kiermaier is slashing .366/.366/.537 with a home run, six runs, and six RBI. With only 11 games on the season, there shouldn't be an overreaction, but Kiermaier is generally performing much better in the areas that hurt him in the past. Most notably, his batting average against breaking pitches has gone from .156 in 2022 to .231 this season.
As an everyday player in a very productive Blue Jays lineup, Kiermaier is a great waiver-wire pickup.
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