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Wide receiver Corey Davis signed as a free agent with the New York Jets in the 2021 offseason. Dom Petrillo evaluates the fantasy football impact of this move and Davis' early draft value at WR.
It would be easy to say Corey Davis is going to be a great number one receiver in New York. It would also be a lie.
The truth is, we do not know yet. Not just because of his up-and-down career but also due to the question at the quarterback position for the 2021 season.
Let's evaluate his situation for fantasy purposes based on what we know right now.
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Empire State of Mind
Sam Darnold might be there, he might not be. It could be Zach Wilson. Oh wait, it might be Justin Fields. Maybe Deshaun Watson! The fact is, we still don't know and we will not know until after the NFL draft at the earliest. Going on the assumption that Houston is dumb enough to not trade Watson or he winds up somewhere else, we have to then think the QB will either remain Darnold or be a rookie. For our purposes and since he is still on the roster, we will presume Darnold is the starting QB this season but stay tuned. Neither scenario lends a lot of hope for the upcoming season. With this in mind, we trudge on and hope the Jets can, somehow, get back to relevance in the AFC East.
So far in his young career, Darnold has been a disappointment. This may sound unfair as he was dealing with a lot over the first three years of his NFL tenure, not the least of which was the terrible coaching of Adam Gase. With Gase finally gone, he has a chance to get a lot better with Robert Salah manning the ship and OC Mike LaFleur calling the shots.
Also, look at the surrounding cast the Jets provided him with. They thought they had a good TE in Chris Herndon but that fizzled out quickly. Even in 2020, while finally playing all 16 games. Herndon only managed 31 receptions for 287 yards and three TD catches. Even with the limitations of the Jets' offense, these numbers are mediocre at best. Especially in a season when the Jets finally made moves on the offensive line, including the selection of Makhi Beckton in the first round to shore up protection for Darnold.
At receiver, Jamison Crowder had another solid season as the de facto number one option. While this was good for him, having your number one option be a slot receiver is not optimal for success in the NFL.
Drafting Denzel Mims out of Baylor in the second round was supposed to lend a spark to the offense. The 6’3" and 207-pound Mims was a workout warrior at the combine. His 4.38 40-yard dash was giving people Calvin Johnson vibes. There is always one player who is overhyped and compared, unfairly, to a Hall of Famer. In 2020, it was Mims. But this did not show during the season. Dealing with injury, Mims only played in nine games. In those games, he managed only 23 catches and 387 yards. While these numbers are not great, the 16.8 y/c average shows his ability to get down the field and spread the field. This will be a great second option to Davis coming into this season.
Davis will immediately take over as the WR1 in New York. After finally having a breakout year in 2020, Davis cashed in during free agency. This was good for him, but we have to wonder how he will do without a monster like A.J. Brown opposite him. If Mims is able to progress, he could be that type of big target. If this happens, Davis will be much better. If not, Davis could fall flat as a number one.
At 6’3" and 209 pounds, Davis will be another huge target for Darnold to find in the red zone. While he had a modest eight red-zone targets in 2020 and only two inside the five-yard line, this was mainly due to Tennessee's offense centering around the beast that is Derrick Henry. Coming of his finest season in which he had 65 catches for 984 yards and five TD in 14 games, Davis wants to show everyone why he was taken at number five by the Titans in the 2017 draft. If the Jets can further upgrade their offensive line, he may just do so.
Mims and Davis are both big-bodied WR with down-field ability. Sam Darnold was great at throwing the deep pass in college but has not had the offense to do so in the NFL. This could change greatly this season with both of them in the fold. Do not get me wrong, this is not going to be enough for the Jets to be good this season, but for fantasy, they will be more fun to watch. And that is all we can really ask for.
2021 Outlook
This move does make Davis more intriguing this season than he was in 2020. Still not a top-15 WR but he easily could be a top-30 receiver and someone who, on the Jets, is sure to get overlooked a bit in fantasy drafts. If you are willing to take a shot on the Jets offense being better, Davis is a great target for you in the middle rounds of your draft. Taking him in the top six rounds is too much. If you can manage to get him in the seventh round or later, he would make a solid WR3 for your team. So, do not be afraid of him after only one good season. Unlike the receiver who signed for the other New York team, John Ross, Davis actually has talent and will help your team.
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