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Corbin Young's 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Cody Bellinger, Michael Harris II, Ben Joyce and more.
Most of us love drafting, whether it is fast, slow, or an auction. Some drafters stick to projections, others go by feel, and many use both. We have biases and players we love, and sometimes the data will lead us to love or hate them more. Everyone loves to find sleepers and discuss potential busts, but the lies in winning and talking about bold predictions.
We have several RotoBaller writers giving us their bold predictions. In the education world, we love operationalizing definitions. What does a bold prediction look and sound like? It's like how I want my spicy foods, medium spice. We're lucky to hit on one or two of my 10 bold predictions for 2025.
Like any of my work, we have data for these bold predictions. As an optimistic person, we'll have four positive ones for hitters and pitchers and a concerning prediction for each. Besides being optimistic, we'll lay out the downsides of this going wrong to stay level-headed. Let's dive into my 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions.
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James Wood Earns First-Round Value in 2025
Wood teased us in his rookie season with nine home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .264 batting average in 336 plate appearances. The heavy groundballs (55 percent) will limit the power ceiling, but Wood destroys line drives and fly balls. That's evident in Wood's 12th-best average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives at 96.9 mph. Wood tied with Brent Rooker and Rafael Devers for context among hitters with 150 batted ball events.
Wood is an athletic specimen like Aaron Judge, listed at 6-foot-7 and 234 pounds with power and speed. The Nationals led the league in stolen bases (223), as one of three teams with 200 or more steals. Among the 48 teams with 200 or more stolen bases in history, three came in 2024 (Nationals, Brewers, and Reds). However, the other recent instances occurred in 2007 (Mets) and the 2000s. Wood boasts a 24 percent stolen base opportunity rate, leading us to drool and dream over an Elly De La Cruz-type season in 2025.
Mike Trout Hits 40+ Home Runs
Trout hit 40 home runs in the 2022 season, the only season where he sniffed 500 plate appearances (499) since 2019. Besides the 2020 season, Trout averaged 283 plate appearances from 2021 to 2024 after averaging 642 plate appearances per season (2012-2019).
Trout's power skills were elite in 2024, with a 158 Expected Power Index (xPX), 11.1 percent barrels per plate appearance, and a 101.8 mph (No. 71) Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) in the small sample of 82 batted ball events in 2024.
The visual below shows hitters with an above-average contact rate (Ct%) sorted by the highest xPX, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. Trout ranked third in xPX among this filter.
Assuming health, Trout's power metrics point toward a hitter who smashes 35-40 home runs.
With the news about Trout moving to right field, there's a narrative to paint a scenario where he remains healthier than in recent seasons. ATC Projects Trout for 27 home runs in 463 plate appearances, and there's a good chance he bounces back from a health perspective, leading to being mispriced in 2025.
Cody Bellinger Hits 40 Home Runs
Bellinger joins the Yankees with a home ballpark that ranks third in the Statcast Home Run Park Factor to left-handed hitters behind the Reds and Phillies. Meanwhile, the Cubs' home park ranked 23rd in 2024.
He used a pull-heavy (42.6 percent), flyball (46.1 percent) approach in 2024, similar to his career averages. That should bode well for Bellinger when playing at home. Unfortunately, Bellinger's power skills have dipped to a 104 xPX and 4.7 percent barrel per plate appearance rate. We'll note those power metrics have been mediocre.
The 2023 season might be the floor with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a .307 batting average. However, Bellinger goes from one of the worst home parks for homers to one of the best for lefties, helping us to dream of him pushing toward 40 dingers.
Dylan Crews is the NL Rookie of the Year and Best Rookie Hitter for Fantasy Baseball
Identifying rookies who could smash in the regular season is tricky because we have some unknowns in the offseason. That's especially true when a player gave us a limited sample, with 132 plate appearances for Crews in 2024. Crews had three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a .218 batting average.
So how does Crews break out in 2025? Crews showed average chase and contact rates in the minors, plus his brief MLB stint. He rocked some high-end 90th percentile average exit velocities of 106.3 mph. Crews had a higher average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives in the majors (98.3 mph) versus Triple-A (95.3 mph). This data comes from Chris Clegg's Minor League Leaderboard.
The 57.4 percent groundball rate in the majors and 42.1 percent across Double and Triple-A in 2024 could hinder the power ceiling in the short term unless he crushes fly balls and line drives. Crews had a 53 percent stolen base opportunity rate in the majors, higher than his rates in the minors. We'll want a piece of Crews in your portfolio.
Michael Harris II is the Biggest Hitter Bust Besides Rafael Devers Inside the Top 50 Picks
Harris has earned $21 (2022), $16 (2023), and $5 (2024) per BaseballHQ. They also have a metric that quantifies skills called Base Performance Value (BPV). However, they use BPX as a metric scaled to the league average at 100, like wRC+.
Harris's BPX has fallen from 200 (2022) to 182 (2023) and 110 (2024). He had a career-low batting average and xBA (.262), 15 points below his career xBA (.277). In 2022, Harris outperformed his skills, with a Power Index of 143 versus an Expected Power Index (xPX) of 109. Harris's xPX has been mediocre, though his 7.4 percent barrels per plate appearance sits over two percentage points higher than the league norm.
The defense should keep him in the lineup. He also possesses the speed and athleticism to provide the stolen base juice. Harris stole 20 bases in two straight seasons (2022-2023) before dealing with a hamstring injury in 2024. That caused his stolen base conversion rate to dip to 62 percent, with a career norm of 80 percent. The stolen base opportunity remains respectable, with 15 percent in 2024 compared to a career average of 19 percent.
Could Harris bounce back and post a career-best season in 2025? Yes. However, we could add the concern of Harris batting in the bottom half of the lineup in spots sixth through ninth 74.5 percent of the time in his career. Furthermore, nearly 40 percent of Harris's plate appearances came in the nine-hole. Typically, the hitters we target in the top 50 picks hit toward the top of the lineup to compile counting stats and plate appearances, leading to earned value.
Bailey Ober Finishes With the Highest Earned Value Among Twins' Starting Pitchers For an Ace-Like Season
After lacking the ace-like workload, Ober saw a career-high in innings (178) in 2024. Ober boasted high-end control with a 32.5 percent ball rate and a repeated career-best swinging-strike rate (14.6 percent), identical to 2023 with more innings.
In the age of velocity and stuff, Ober's 91.7 mph four-seamer doesn't pop off the page. However, his four-seamer possesses above-average induced vertical break (IVB) at 16.8 inches, which has been sneaky good via his elite extension (7.3 feet).
Ober saw career bests in his changeup's swinging-strike rate (22.7 percent), with the slider (12.2 percent) taking a step back compared to his career average (14.2 percent).
The market has been adjusting and buying into Ober as the second Twins' starting pitcher behind Pablo Lopez. It's not bold to have Ober finish ahead of Lopez since they go 20 picks apart. However, Ober goes as SP21 in NFBC Drafts and could take another step forward for an ace-like season in 2025.
Reid Detmers Finally Delivers a Breakout Season and a Top-100 Player - Never Wrong, Always Early
Detmers had a better xERA in three of the four seasons throughout his career. The lone season his actual outcomes (3.77 ERA) were better than his expected ones (4.17 xERA) was in 2022. Interestingly, Detmers rocked the highest swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent) in 2024.
Detmers' four-seamer possessed a career-high in IVB at 17.9 inches, typically meaning it's in the near-elite range for a four-seam fastball. He had the most extension of his career, with a vertical release point (6.1 feet) in 2024, similar to his 2021 season.
Meanwhile, Detmers' slider continued to elicit an 18.9 percent swinging strike rate in 2024, over one percentage point above his career average. The changeup is the wildcard since it boasts a 16.7 percent swinging strike rate in 2024, over three points higher than the career norm (13.4 percent).
Detmers' changeup is a wildcard because Detmers increased the usage against right-handed hitters to a career-high (19.7 percent), yet the career-best results (.384 wOBA, .334 xwOBA) don't inspire confidence. It's worth taking the chance on Detmers because of the price and skills hinting at a 2025 breakout season.
Shota Imanaga Provides Ace-Like Outcomes and Earns Top-25 Player Value
This one might not be bold enough since Imanaga was a breakout starting pitcher in 2024 going around pick 75. Imanaga boasts the skills to target with above-average control and near-elite swinging strike rates. That's evident in Imanaga's 15 percent swinging strike rate and 31.5 percent ball rate.
Imanaga's splitter (26.2 percent), slider (16.6 percent), and changeup (17 percent) lead his arsenal. Furthermore, Imanaga's four-seamer rocks 18.3 inches of induced vertical break, meaning it's elite, and a fastball that can typically induce weak contact and whiffs.
He has an arsenal to attack both sides of the plate and multiple pitches to generate whiffs. Imanaga's 3.75 xERA hints at regression, but the skills point toward an SP2 with an SP1-type upside.
Ben Joyce Leads the Angels in Saves
Before Kenley Jansen signed with the Angels on February 11, Joyce had an ADP inside the top 150 picks in NFBC drafts. Since then, Joyce's ADP fell about 100 picks to 250.
Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times wrote an article in February about Jansen mentoring Joyce. DiGiovanna referenced a similar situation with the Angels back when veteran Lee Smith mentored Troy Percival.
Narrative aside, Joyce has elite velocity (102.1 mph) and an above-average swinging strike rate. The four-seamer leads the arsenal, with a 16.2 percent swinging strike rate. Interestingly, Joyce's four-seamer has a below-average induced vertical break, generating 11.9 inches of arm-side run, a decent amount for a fastball.
Joyce uses his 6.7-foot extension and low 28-degree arm angle to make the four-seam become a scary pitch against lefties (.270 wOBA, .241 xwOBA) and righties (.280 wOBA, .299 xwOBA). He bumped up the sinker usage to righties (35.3 percent) and lefties (36.9 percent) as a way to induce groundballs (82.4 percent) and weaker contact (.298 wOBA, .311 xwOBA).
Two relievers that garnered save opportunities with similar groundball rates and swinging strike rates include Clay Holmes (66 percent groundball rate, 12.1 percent swinging strike rate) and Emmanuel Clase (56 percent groundball rate, 15.2 percent swinging strike rate).
Among relievers with 30 innings in 2024, Joyce ranked 19th in the game leverage index metric, leading the Angels, with Jansen at No. 6. That indicates the Angels relied on Joyce during high-leverage situations. Furthermore, Joyce ranked 13th in the FanGraphs Clutch metric, showing he performed better in high-leverage opportunities.
Take a shot on Joyce as an upside RP3 with the skills of a potential high-end closer.
Fade Several Dodgers' Starting Pitchers Besides Dustin May
Recently, we wrote about starting pitcher busts and fades in the National League, including two other Dodgers' starting pitchers. Part of the concern involves the injuries and workloads, though the skills tease us with their high-end skills. Blake Snell might be the "safest" early-round Dodgers' starting pitcher.
The Dodgers were one of seven teams with over $20 million in cash spent in 2024 coming from their injured starting pitchers. They had the sixth-most money toward starting pitchers and seventh for all positions from injured players in 2024.
If you're curious about who those pitchers were, here's a list below. That includes Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and May. Interestingly, Yoshinobu Yamamoto didn't show up on the list below. However, Yamamoto missed 88 days on the injured list, costing the team $2.3 million in 2024.
Maybe we're cheating, but May has the lowest ADP among the Dodgers' projected starting pitchers for Opening Day, going around pick 300. In July 2023, he projected to miss a year after having flexor tendon and UCL reconstruction revision surgery in his throwing arm. Unfortunately, as May ramped up into 2024, he dealt with a throat issue requiring surgery.
On March 11, Dodgers' Manager Dave Roberts mentioned May being in the starting rotation as their fifth starter to begin the 2025 season. May had a mediocre 10.7 percent swinging strike rate throughout his career, yet above-average horizontal movement profiles for the curveball, four-seamer, and sinker.
May's Spring Training swinging strike rate hasn't popped off the page at 10.2 percent, similar to the career averages, and one of the lower ones on the team. So what makes May special?
He typically used the sinker (.189 wOBA, .275 xwOBA) and curveball (.199 wOBA, .167 xwOBA) in 2023 against right-handed hitters, his two most effective offerings. Meanwhile, the cutter (.183 wOBA, .255 xwOBA) and curveball (.158 wOBA, .222 xwOBA) versus lefties remained his best offerings.
Take the discounted price on a Dodgers' starting pitcher because Blake Snell, Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, and Glasnow had injury issues in the past or heading into 2025. However, their skills have been near-elite, so it's a high-risk and high-reward situation.
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