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Corbin's starting pitcher fades and potential fantasy baseball busts, avoids for 2025. He thinks these pitchers are too expensive in drafts and may disappoint.
Like anything in life, everything has a price. When something becomes higher priced, we tend to be careful when investing based on our preferences. However, the interest rises when we find a similar product for a cheaper price. That's the case with fantasy sports, especially when drafting teams.
Injury risk aside, it's tricky to identify starting pitcher busts and avoids because we can usually find a path for optimism. A quick example would be Chris Sale, who averaged nearly 130 days on the injured list from 2021-2023 but saw the highest innings total and earned value since 2018. Sometimes, a player surprises us and stays healthy for most of the season, leading to an unexpected outcome.
As the draft goes on, the risk level tends to decrease, especially in the middle to later rounds. Identifying three starting pitcher busts/avoids involves looking at players within the top 100 picks that showed flaws in their profile. We'll also examine the skills and other factors to consider fading these starting pitchers at their price.
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Corbin Burnes, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
NFBC ADP: 39.8 (Since Feb. 1)
Burnes joined the Diamondbacks on a massive six-year deal worth $210 million in the offseason. He has been a workhorse, logging over 190 innings in three consecutive seasons. Burnes ranked third in total innings behind Logan Webb and Aaron Nola from 2022 to 2024.
After breakout seasons in 2021 and 2022, with over 230 strikeouts and an xERA under 2.90, Burnes saw his expected ERA shift in the opposite direction. Sometimes, when players succeed, it's a mixture of luck and skills, especially when we witness breakout-type outcomes.
Burnes had an xERA nearly 40 points above his actual ERA in 2023, which fell to a 70-point gap in 2024. While xERA might not be the sole reason to fade, it typically indicates the skills didn't align with the results, though there's some luck in his favor.
In the peak seasons for Burnes, he saw peak swinging-strike rates at 17.3 percent (2021) and 15.7 percent (2022). However, Burnes's swinging-strike rates fell to 12.4 percent (2023) and 13.3 percent (2024), though those remain above-average numbers. For context, Burnes boasts a career swinging-strike rate of 16.1 percent, showing the decline in recent seasons.
Burnes saw his curveball (14.6 percent), cutter (8.4 percent), and changeup (15.1 percent) swinging-strike rates decline by two to three percentage points each compared to the career norms. Only the slider remained similar to the career average, with a 25.6 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024.
Interestingly, Burnes saw increases in vertical movement compared to the average pitch in 2024, indicating most of his pitches added downward movement besides the cutter. Speaking of the cutter, the numbers regressed against right-handed hitters. That's evident in Burnes' cutter allowing a .335 wOBA (.343 xwOBA) in 2024 compared to a .291 wOBA (.322 xwOBA) in 2023 versus righties.
It's notable because Burnes primarily threw the cutter to right-handed hitters (39.6 percent), yet it was a career-low in usage, with most seasons having usage over 45 percent of the time. Burnes increased the slider usage to 22.6 percent versus righties, and it dominated, with a .209 wOBA and 46 percent whiff rate.
Thankfully, the pitch usage and results against left-handed hitters remained similar, showing he can still battle opposite-handed hitters. Burnes possesses above-average skills, but the breakout seasons showed near-elite to elite skills in 2021 and 2022.
Be cautious when investing early into Burnes in 2025. Look toward Logan Gilbert or Zack Wheeler earlier, or wait for Blake Snell, George Kirby, and Cole Ragans a little later.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
NFBC ADP: 59 (Since Feb. 1)
The Dodgers have several starting pitchers returning from injuries or with potential workload concerns. Yamamoto falls into that bucket after dealing with a triceps injury that went from an unserious one in the middle of June to something that caused him to miss nearly three months, returning in September.
Yamamoto's 3.44 xERA and 3.14 SIERA were close to his actual output (3.00) given his above-average skills, with the 22 percent strikeout minus walk rate and 12.6 percent swinging-strike rate. He controls the zone, with a 33.4 percent ball rate. Meanwhile, the splitter leads the arsenal with a 19.4 percent swinging-strike rate.
Yamamoto has an effective attack against left-handed hitters. That's evident in his splitter, which allows a .147 wOBA (.203 xwOBA), and curveball, which results in a .199 wOBA (.193 xwOBA) versus lefties. Unfortunately, his arsenal against right-handed hitters was decent but not dominant. Yamamoto's arsenal performed worse against right-handed hitters as the season progressed.
The splitter allowed the most whiffs (24.8 percent SwK) and weak contact (.308 wOBA, .258 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters. If the curveball can be a second effective offering versus righties, especially considering the elite levels of downward movement, it would boost the confidence in Yamamoto's arsenal. That's important because Yamamoto's four-seamer possesses mediocre induced vertical break numbers.
Sometimes, players will take a step forward even when the data points toward some red flags. That's true with Yamamoto, where you can find room for optimism.
However, he has the fifth-highest Vol per ATC Projections, indicating the projections disagree with him in 2025. Concerns around workload and injury, plus wanting better outcomes and skills versus right-handed hitters, might make us pause before drafting him.
Michael King, SP, San Diego Padres
NFBC ADP: 62.4 (Since Feb. 1)
In King's first season as a full-time starting pitcher, he posted a career-high in innings (173), strikeouts (201), and earned value ($15). He showed solid skills, with a 19 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate.
King changed his usage as a primary starter by using more changeups (11 percentage point jump), plus fewer sinkers (27.9 percent) and sweepers (17.8 percent). The changeup is the main option against lefties (37 percent), a nine to 11-point jump from the previous seasons.
King's changeup has been deadly, evidenced by a 20.6 percent swinging-strike rate overall and 21.5 percent versus left-handed hitters. His changeup added over two inches of downward movement while maintaining the near-elite levels of armside fade.
Unfortunately, King's sweeping slider took a step backward, with a 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate, two percentage points below his career norm (15.1 percent). However, the batted ball results improved, with a .262 wOBA (.294 xwOBA) in 2024 compared to a .343 wOBA (.297 xwOBA) in 2023.
The main improvements came via right-handed hitters, evidenced by a .236 wOBA (2024), down from a .344 wOBA (2023). King threw his sweeper slider more often in the zone, going from a 37.7 percent (2023) zone rate to 46.4 percent (2024).
It seems like King made a concerted effort to trade whiffs for weak contact in 2024, but can he sustain the success in 2025? King possesses two relatively effective pitches against both sides of the plate. He showed us he can have a heavier workload as a starting pitcher.
King's xERA was over 60 points higher than his actual ERA, suggesting some regression coming. Be cautious investing in King as an SP1 or SP2 in deeper leagues because we're paying for another step forward as the SP16 or a $23 player in drafts.
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
NFBC ADP: 102 (Since Feb. 1)
Fantasy managers should be cautious when a starting pitcher deals with an elbow strain in August, leading to a season-ending injury. That's especially true with Glasnow, who averaged over 50 days on the injured list over the past several seasons, not including 2020.
The per-inning skills from Glasnow remain high-end to near-elite, with a 25 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and a 14.6 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024. Glasnow's slider (20.1 percent) and curveball (19.3) have been his best offerings from a swinging-strike standpoint.
For context, his curveball elicits a swinging strike rate nearly six percentage points above the league average. Meanwhile, his slider sits over three points higher than the league average.
Unsurprisingly, Glasnow's curveball and slider have been decent against lefties and righties. Glasnow's curveball was the most dominant offering versus righties (.035 wOBA) and lefties (.176 wOBA). His slider also performed well against right-handed hitters (.265 wOBA) and left-handers (.220 wOBA).
The scary part about fading someone like Glasnow involves the skills of being near-elite. That's evident in Glasnow's xERA, which is better than his outcomes over the past two seasons and his career. While the upside exists, Glasnow's earned value peaked at $12 per BaseballHQ and $16.4 per FanGraphs in 2024, similar to the projected average auction value ($13) in 2025.
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