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Brenton Kemp takes a look at the Corbin Burnes trade and contemplates what fantasy baseball managers can expect from the hurler in 2024. Can Burnes help the Orioles become an American League favorite?
The Baltimore Orioles have a new ace as they recently acquired Brewers No. 1 Corbin Burnes in exchange for infield prospect Joey Ortiz, left hander DL Hall, and the club's 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (No. 34 overall). It's a massive add for the O's coming off a 101-win season and an AL East crown.
It's a move that instills fear into not only the AL East but across the entire American League. After leading the junior circuit in wins last season, the O's were able to use their glut of quality, young prospects (Ortiz) to grab a Cy Young-caliber starter to get even better. Ortiz is currently the No. 63 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline.
Slick-fielding Joey Ortiz lands at No. 5 on the @Brewers' Top 30 Prospects list after his acquisition in the Corbin Burnes deal.
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Scouting report, grades + more on the @NMStateBaseball alum: https://t.co/dnrfS6qKOy pic.twitter.com/cxe61y7JVY
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 2, 2024
While the deal serves both sides well, there could be a significant fantasy baseball impact here. Let's dive into what Corbin Burnes' fantasy baseball outlook looks like in 2024.
Corbin Burnes 2024 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
There is little doubt Burnes isn't coming off of his best season. He tossed a sub-3.00 ERA each season from 2020-22, doing so in four of his first five MLB seasons. In 2023, he worked to a 3.39 ERA, 4.02 SIERA, and a diminished 17.1% K-BB%, a far cry from his peak 30.4% clip in the 2021 season.
Nonetheless, Burnes has proven to be a true No. 1 workhorse, taking the ball for 65 starts over the last two seasons, tied for third in all of baseball. His 395 2/3 innings in that time rank seventh. Even in a down season (by his lofty standard), Burnes ranked in the 88th percentile or better in pitching run value, fastball run value, breaking run value, and offspeed run value. In other words, his arsenal was deadly, as per usual.
With Corbin Burnes being traded to Baltimore last night, here’s how his slider evolved throughout the 2023 season 🧹 pic.twitter.com/wvGsoxqY5H
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) February 2, 2024
Ranking in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity, 89th in hard-hit rate, and 86th in barrel rate doesn't hurt, either.
Despite a heavy workload over the last two seasons, Burnes didn't become a full-time starter until the 2021 season, in which he eclipsed 59 2/3 innings for the first time. Entering his age-29 season, he doesn't have the same wear-and-tear on his body that other aces across the league possess. It's not hard to envision him taking the ball at least 30 times in the 2024 season.
In fact, that's precisely what ATC is projecting for the right hander this upcoming season. The projection system has Burnes making 30 starts spanning 187 innings, but also slipping to a 3.52 ERA. His K-BB% is projected to increase to 19.5%, but that would still fall well below his 23.2% career mark.
One interesting debate is what this move means for Burnes in the wins department. The Brewers were no slouch in winning 92 games and the NL Central title in 2023 but there's little doubt the Orioles are the far superior club. At the same time, Burnes moves from a fairly weak NL Central to a powerhouse AL East, a division that had four teams finish over .500 in 2023, three of which made the playoffs. The last-place Boston Red Sox's .481 winning percentage was, by far, the best mark among last-place clubs.
It's a division loaded with teams trying to win on an everyday basis. Burnes is exchanging the likes of the Pirates and 71-win Cardinals for the 82-win Yankees and 89-win Blue Jays. He has won at least 10 games in three straight seasons and ATC projects 11 victories for him this time around.
“This now makes the @Orioles a legitimate World Series contender the day they walk into camp at Spring Training.”@JakePeavy_22 breaks down Corbin Burnes and what he will bring to the reigning AL East champs. #MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/hgny8LwfCj
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 2, 2024
Fantasy managers can look forward to a reliable, workhorse starter playing for a very, very good team in 2024. On the flip side, managers should note the fact Burnes has seen a dip in strikeout rate in each of his last three seasons and an increase in walk rate in each of his last two campaigns. A very nice 27% K% is projected for 2024, a figure every fantasy manager should take with a smile on their face.
Only Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani (who won't pitch this season) are pitcher-eligible players being drafted ahead of Burnes. That correlates directly to Burnes ranking fourth in RotoBaller's starting pitcher rankings. The floor is extremely high with this pitcher and given his resume, the chances of him out-pitching his projects are solid. Perhaps working with new Orioles pitching coach Drew French can help Burnes unlock some of his pre-2023 magic.
Nonetheless, Burnes is indeed a top-five fantasy baseball starting pitcher and needs to be trusted and treated as such on draft day.
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