RADIO
How fitting is it that my 350th article here at Rotoballer is this behemoth. It was these against the spread picks that first got me into sports writing in the first place. I have evolved into multiple DFS sports, but the challenge of picking every college football game against the spread is at times alluring, exhausting, elating, embarrassing, and just a hell of a lot of fun. I thank the powers that be for letting me continue over here. These pieces are the reason you get to read me ramble on about all kinds of things, not just sports.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I had a solid week 1, picking 27 of the 46 games right against the spread. I gained a healthy 14 betting points, so I consider that a good start for the year. Before the season I set a goal for myself to hit 55% of these. A solid week 1 helps me out.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I am 29-21 on the season so far with 14 points gained. Add that to my 28 points I started the season with, and I have a solid 42 points. Hey, I'll take it! It took me two years to get out of the hole of the dismal 2017 season.
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience. I've been waiting to bring this college football betting series over to RotoBaller since I started here back in February, so let's get to this!
Due to the lack of accurate spreads on FCS vs. FBS games, I won't make official picks on those. They aren't on the board at most Vegas casinos anyway (if you absolutely INSIST on betting these, you can come into the premium chat at Rotoballer and I will try to answer). Why wont I bet those? Ask Washington, Colorado State, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, and Tulsa. Those six scalps are now on FCS mantles. A special shoutout goes to Vandy and Colorado State, who didn't just lose. They got smoked by more than 20 points!
Illinois at Virginia(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line has stabilized after opening at -13. Look, the Illini losing outright to UTSA isn't much of an upset, even at home. The Roadrunners are better than a dozen power five teams. This line still looks high to me. Brennan Armstrong is a solid quarterback and Billy Kemp IV is a massive target. I still don't see an explosive Virginia team here. Give me the Illini, but I don't trust it enough to bet it.
Western Kentucky at Army(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place and it likely should be. Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe had some big games against FBS schools last year and threw seven touchdowns in his FBS debut against Tennessee-Martin. Zappe is outstanding, but we've seen Army ground high-flying teams before. Look what happened against Cincinnati last year (even though Army lost the game). The lack of a running game for the Hilltoppers will hurt here. I have to go Army at home.
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(12)Oregon at (3)Ohio State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Buckeyes wouldn't have even covered this against Minnesota without their best player for the last 20 minutes of the game. This feels too high. I see the Buckeyes winning, but probably not by more than two touchdowns. Fresno is a good team. There's no shame in the Ducks being tested by them. I'm taking Oregon and the points because of that half.
South Carolina(-1.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has already slipped to even in a couple of spots. The Gamecocks should have Kevin Harris back for this one, which in theory should help their quarterbacks. Harris, as good as he is, still can't help them hit open receivers. If the Pirates start fast, which they have been known to do at home, they can neutralize Harris and win this game. The Gamecocks can't throw to win. Give me ECU outright.
Pittsburgh(-3.5) at Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Calm down, Vols fans. It was Bowling Green. The Falcons haven't won a game since November 2 of 2019. They have eight wins in the past five years. There is some reason to be excited though. The offense started getting into a groove in the second half. Pitt's lack of a run game in the opener is surprising considering that is usually a strength for them. I don't know much about the Tennessee D considering Bowling Green isn't much of a barometer, but this offense looks good. They aren't tripping over themselves, which is a step up over the Jarret Guarantano years in Knoxville. Give me the Vols outright.
Miami(OH) at Minnesota(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points for the Gophers without Ibrahim. It feels like too many. I know the Redhawks got thumped by Cincinnati, but the Bearcats are much better than the Gophers without Ibrahim. The Redhawks aren't going to win this outright, but I don't know if Minnesota has a back or backs that can do what Ibrahim did. Give me Miami and the points. This is too many.
Tulsa at Oklahoma State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know the Cowboys struggled to run the ball against Missouri State, but the Dust Devils lost outright to UC-Davis. It may as well have been the Banana Slugs from UC-Santa Cruz. The Cowboys might have Spencer Sanders back this week, and I think we'll see more of Utah State transfer Jaylen Warren. This is too low. The Pokes roll.
(13)Florida(-28.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I see casinos offering -29 with no juice on the Gators. That's a bit concerning. So is the fact that they will have to cover this by running alone. Hell, NC State just did it last week and the Florida backs are almost as good as what the Wolfpack has. Add in the two running backs that sometimes throw wobbly ducks to say they are quarterbacks and it puts this over the top. Give me Florida.
Wyoming(-7.5) at Northern Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Huh? The Cowboys had all they could do to take out Montana State. The Huskies wrecked the Wreck in Atlanta with a two-point conversion of the outright win. I don't think Harrison Waylee will be able to run like he did last week, but Rocky Lombardi is solid enough to not lose the game for the Huskies. I can't say the same for Sean Chambers. Give me NIU outright.
Middle Tennessee State at (19)Virginia Tech(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
North Carolina State transfer Bailey Hockman was solid for the Blue Raiders in his debut, but he was awful against the Hokies last year. He only completed seven of 16 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. That was in Blacksburg as well. Give me the Hokies. They are going to scramble Hockman again no matter what uniform he's wearing.
Rutgers(-2.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Neither team is really prolific when it comes to passing, but Syracuse has a very good run game behind Sean Tucker. They're not losing this in the Carrier Dome. Give me the Orange outright.
Toledo at (8)Notre Dame(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The bottom is falling out of this line. I like Bryant Koback, but he's not going to be able to run on the Irish. There's no McKenzie Milton on the sidelines to lead the Rockets back when they get down big. This is going to get ugly. Give me the Irish.
Purdue(-34.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well, the Huskies just got spanked by Holy Cross, so yeah, give me the Boilers.
UAB at (2)Georgia(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The line is falling and I see why, but Tyler Johnston can't do this by himself. The Dawgs just ran into an elite defense last week. This week UGA shows off. Give me Georgia.
(5)Texas A&M(-16.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's something about the Ralphies in Boulder. There's also something about Haynes King making a ton of mistakes against Kent State. The Aggies win, but closer than this. I'll take Colorado and the points.
Ball State at (11)Penn State(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This defense was impressive in Camp Randall, but Ball State's passing game is surprisingly good. I do have questions about whether the line can keep Drew Plitt upright, but if they can, the Lettermans will keep this close. This feels like a bit of a letdown game for Penn State after a big win to open the season. They wont lose, but I'll say Ball State stays within 14-17 points. Give me the Lettermans.
Georgia Southern at Florida Atlantic(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Logan Wright went nuts on Gardner-Webb and the Eagles still almost lost. I have to take FAU at home. Expect a big game from Miami transfer N'Kosi Perry.
Boston College(-37.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hmmmm.....is UMass better than Colgate? Probably not. Give me BC.
Buffalo at Nebraska(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is laughable. I like Buffalo straight up. Nebraska makes too many mistakes and can't stop toss sweeps. A MAC team takes out a Big Ten(14) team every year. This will be this year's instance.
California at TCU(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Seriously? I'm not scared of the Cal offense either, but I think they can muster 10-13 points. There's no way TCU scores 24 on the Cal defense. I like Cal and the points (and the under).
Temple(-6.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Both of these teams are so bad I don't see either one winning by a touchdown. I would advise not watching this game even if you are a fan of either team. This is going to be ugly. I'll take Akron, but there's no way I would bet this.
Air Force(-5.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Air Force has a lot more returning than Navy. This early in the season, that still counts. Give me the Falcons.
South Alabama(-13.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I think the Jags are almost as good as Tennessee. This is way too low. USA rolls!
(10)Iowa at (9)Iowa State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
One team looked really good against a team that finished in the top ten last year. The other struggled against a top ten FCS squad. They are not equal. Hawkeyes straight up.
Houston(-8.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Since when is losing to Texas Tech a bad thing? This feels low. Give me Houston. That offense is still very good.
(15)Texas(-6.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I expected a close line, but this is too close. I haven't been scared of a Texas coach since Mack Brown had Vince Young. I'm scared of our defense against a Steve Sarkisian offense. Give me Texas.
Eastern Michigan at (18)Wisconsin(-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too high. Graham Mertz makes way too many mistakes to cover a line like this against a solid and improving Eastern Michigan team. I'll take the Eagles and the points.
Appalachian State at (22)Miami(FL)(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vegas is giving the Mountaineers the respect they deserve. I can see Miami winning about 20 or Appalachian State winning outright. Considering Miami usually underperforms, I'll choose the latter and take the Mountaineers and the points. They should keep this close.
North Carolina State at Mississippi State(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still think the North Carolina State rushing attack is going to be a lot for the Bulldogs to overcome. I like the Wolfpack to take this on the road. They aren't quite as explosive, but they are more reliable.
Texas State at Florida International(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
And here I thought the Bobcats might be favored. The line opened with them favored. I still haven't decided if Baylor is that bad or the Bobcats are just that good at home. It's coin flip time. Tails. Give me FIU.
North Texas at SMU(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The North Texas defense is mostly a disaster, but the offense is not. This is too many for a Metroplex rivarly. Give me North Texas.
Liberty(-4.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too low. Malik Willis is by far the best player on the field. I'll say the Flames by at least a touchdown.
Memphis(-5.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Memphis still has lots of talent at receiver and Brandon Thomas looks like the next in a long line of good Memphis backs. I don't see where the Red Wolves defense has improved even if the offense has. Memphis by double digits.
New Mexico State at New Mexico(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
In a rivalry? Maybe, but no chance I bet this. Give me New Mexico State, I guess....
Georgia State at (24)North Carolina(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Are the Heels going to be mad or dejected? How about the Panthers. I really have no idea. The talent level isn't really close though, so give me the Tarheels.
Missouri at Kentucky(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is slowly creeping upward, and I'll tell you that I'm a believer too. I like Kentucky by double digits. This offense is going to be fun to watch this year!
Washington at Michigan(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line predictably jumped and it's still not high enough. I've learned my lesson on Harbaugh, but the Wolverines can't possibly lose this, right? RIGHT? Nope, I don't think so either. I'll take Michigan unless the line goes over a touchdown.
Vanderbilt at Colorado State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
You really can't script it any better than this. Both teams lost to FCS schools by 20+ points last week. The difference is that South Dakota State is ranked 3rd in the FCS. This is too low. Give me the Rams. Vanderbilt is going to give Kansas a run for the title of worst power five team.
San Diego State at Arizona(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well I can honestly say that I wasn't expecting this. It was a nice performance by Arizona, sure, but a favorite against a team that runs like this? As long as SDSU doesn't throw more than 10 times, they'll win this. I see a big game from Greg Bell coming here. Give me the Aztecs straight up.
(21)Utah(-7.5) at BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really don't like that half. This is the Holy War and it's almost always close. Utah has won the last nine meetings. Make it ten. Give me the Utes.
Stanford at (14)USC(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Hey, it's not 42 points. This Stanford team isn't as good as the 2007 incarnation either. USC wins BIG!
UNLV at (23)Arizona State(-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck. I honestly think this is too many, but there's no way I would bet it either. Give me the Rebs and I'll hope the Sun Devils stay sloppy.
Hawaii at Oregon State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
How good are UCLA and Purdue? I honestly think they are both pretty good and the uncertainty at quarterback for the Beavers worries me. Give the Hawaii and the points.
I went a little more brave this week. I only have seven one-point picks and 14 two-pointers. That's pretty low. I ended up with 12 threes, nine four pointers, and three fives again. There's a lot on the line this week, but there's a lot I like. If I change anything, I'll try to post on Twitter Saturday morning. Good luck out there!
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