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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/6/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props: Randy Arozarena, Jose Ramirez, Brent Rooker, and more.
There are sixteen games today on a loaded slate of baseball. We have games in Coors Field, Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, George M. Steinbrenner Field, and Sutter Health Park. We have warm weather in Minnesota and Tampa Bay, and the wind is blowing out in a few spots. Let’s get into matchups and find our top hitters to go yard on Tuesday night.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our five hitters to go deep.
Read on to learn about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best price, since this gives you more value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/6/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, May 6:
- Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
- Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
- Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
- Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Ramirez was on my card yesterday against Jake Irvin, and with the rainout, I am going right back to the well. The intriguing part is that this game will be played during the day, with a wind blowing out to right field at 10+ mph. It could be a blessing in disguise that this game got postponed yesterday.
Irvin has always been a pitcher who is around the zone but also gives up the long ball. He has a 4.02 xFIP, 1.69 HR/9, and a 29.4% FB in 2025. Over his last two starts, he has a 4.03 xFIP, 1.83 HR/9, and a 41.4% FB. Lefties have crushed him this season to a .367 wOBA, .264 ISO, 2.3 HR/9, and he has allowed six home runs to the split.
This Guardians lineup is full of left-handed bats who hit right-hand pitching well, but none better than Ramirez. He has a .309 wOBA, .156 ISO, and a 30.0% FB against right-hand pitching this season. Irvin throws two pitches primarily to left-handed hitters: a curveball and a four-seamer. Ramirez hits these pitches, and his arm angle is good.
- Four-Seamer: 128 Pitches, .521 wOBA, .500 ISO, 27 LA, Four HR
- Curveball: 84 Pitches: .278 wOBA, .200 ISO, 23 LA, One HR
- Arm Angle: 40 Pitches, .824 wOBA, .889 ISO, 28 LA, Two HR
With the wind blowing out and good hitting conditions, Ramirez has an elite matchup with Irvin to go yard.
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+270 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I wanted to write up Royce Lewis here, but it is impossible to ignore Buxton here. Buxton has been elite against left-handed pitching over his career, and it hasn’t stopped this season. Buxton had a .370 wOBA, .202 ISO, 51.5% FB, and a 30.9% Hard Hit against southpaws last season and has a .466 wOBA, .364 ISO, and two home runs this season.
Cade Povich has allowed six home runs this season, all of which have come against right-hand hitters. Povich has a 4.37 xFIP, 2.5 HR/9, 34.7% FB, and a 28.0% Hard Hit against the split this season.
We have excellent hitting conditions in Minnesota tonight. It is warm with wind blowing out, and the temperature will be in the low to mid-80s at first pitch, making this one of the better hitting spots on the slate. Look for Buxton to pull a dinger in the left field seats off Povich.
Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Riley Greene and the Detroit Tigers will travel to Coors Field to square off against the Colorado Rockies. As we all know, by now, Coors Field is the best park in the big leagues for runs and home runs and is always a place we want to go hunting for the long ball. It is a bit chilly, so it is not our standard conditions, but it’s still Coors.
Chase Dollander has struggled with the long ball this season. He has allowed eight home runs. Seven of those home runs have come against left-hand hitters. Dollander has a 5.22 xFIP, 3.6 HR/9, 51.3% FB, and a 33.3% Hard Hit this season against the split. There are a few lefties in this lineup who profile well, particularly two that were hard to choose from.
Greene and Kerry Carpenter were my top two choices tonight for the Tigers. I still love both, but Carpenter doesn't have a solidified full-time role and has a pinch-hit risk in any given spot in this game. I will side with Greene, who has been elite against right-hand pitching this season.
Greene has a .379 wOBA, .261 ISO, 32.9% FB, and a 35.7% Hard Hit. I don't love the fly ball data here, but Dollander allows a massive fly ball rate, which will help Greene create lift. Greene is red hot at the moment. He has a .595 wOBA, .429 ISO, and a 50.0% Hard hit over his last 21 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Riley rakes!
Riley Greene had at least one hit in all seven games from 4/28-5/4, including three multi-hit games. 💪 pic.twitter.com/s1p1N82rxK
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) May 5, 2025
The odds here are low because of Coors Field, but sometimes you must eat the chalk and hope it hits. I love Greene here in this spot.
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For our last two home run bets, we will be heading to Sacramento and betting on the same game. Sutter Health Park has been one of the best parks in the big leagues for home runs in 2025, and it will be 70 degrees tonight with wind blowing out to left field at 10+ mph.
Arozarena sat on Monday night but is expected back in the lineup against the lefty Jeffrey Springs. Springs has not given up many home runs, but his fly ball rate is a significant concern in this park on a night like tonight. Springs has a 5.13 xFIP, 1.31 HR/9, and a 49.1% FB this season. He has given up all five of his home runs to right-hand hitters this season.
Randy Arozarena says that he expects to be back in the Mariners’ starting lineup tomorrow.
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) May 5, 2025
Behind Dylan Moore, Randy is the best right-handed bat against left-handed pitching in this lineup. In 2025, Arozarena has a .345 wOBA, .211 ISO, and a 40.7% FB this season against southpaws. He has a 44.4% FB, 37.0% Pull, and a 40.7% Hard Hit against the split. After the night off, I like Arozarena's chances of a big fly tonight.
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)
On the other side of this game is a go-to for us in this article: Brent Rooker. I have written up Rooker twice in this article, and he is two for two for us, so let’s stay hot. I usually like playing Rooker against lefties, but the matchup is great here against Emerson Hancock, who has shown reverse splits this season.
Brent Rooker rockets one to dead center for his 9th home run of the season 🚀 pic.twitter.com/VXNCXpGzJr
— MLB (@MLB) May 3, 2025
Hancock has a 3.84 xFIP, 1.53 HR 9, and a 33.3% FB this season. He has allowed a 3.59 xFIP, 2.0 HR/9, and a 32.4% FB against right-hand hitters this season. He has allowed two homers this season against the split.
Rooker has been elite this season against right-hand pitching. He has a .336 wOBA, .224 ISO, and a 30.1% FB against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .365 wOBA and a .250 ISO against the split over his last 27 PA. Rooker has a 47.4% Pull this season against right-hand pitching, and with he wind blowing out to left field, look for him to elevate and celebrate.
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