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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/5/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, and more.
We've got a smaller slate of MLB action on Monday with 10 games on the schedule, so we have to dig a little deeper to find value in today's home run prop picks. Today's hitters include Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Lawrence Butler, Manny Machado, and Mookie Betts. Each of these players has 30+ home run power with intriguing batter-vs-pitcher data in tonight's matchup.
The process behind finding home run props is to consider a few key points, such as batted ball metrics (Barrel%, xwOBA), lefty-righty splits (wRC+ vs LHP/RHP), weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure that we're getting an appealing price, as you never want to pay an inflated price, especially on such a volatile market like home runs.
Read on to learn about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, May 5, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best price, since this gives you more value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/5/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, May 5:
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
- Lawrence Butler, Athletics
- Manny Machado, San Diego Padres,
- Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings)
Pete Alonso remains on some sort of tear. He has three extra-base hits in his last five plate appearances, including two doubles in two at-bats today.
Alonso is batting .356, second in the Majors behind only Aaron Judge. He leads the NL in all three triple slash categories. pic.twitter.com/MqhE9gNYFn
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) May 4, 2025
Alonso is mashing at the plate this season, slashing .345/.473/.664 with eight home runs in 146 plate appearances. Both plate discipline (16.4% walk rate, 15.1% strikeout rate) and batted ball metrics (20.0 Barrel%) have significantly improved for Alonso this year.
The Mets' first baseman has two homers in his last four games, including one yesterday against the Cardinals. This player is clearly in the middle of a bounce-back season, looking to secure the bag after settling for a below-market deal this past offseason. Remember that Alonso has a player option to opt out of his contract in 2026.
Up next is a matchup against Ryne Nelson, who the Diamondbacks have moved from the bullpen to the rotation to make a start today due to the injury to Corbin Burnes, which has forced him to miss a start. While Nelson has a 5.82 ERA, his 2.60 SIERA indicates he deserves better results.
It's a good spot for Alonso, as he's put up three home runs with a .796 xwOBA in only nine plate appearances against Nelson throughout his career. While this is a small sample, hitting that many homers tells me Alonso knows what to expect from Nelson.
Even with this expensive price at (+290) odds, I'm willing to take a shot on Alonso because he's been one of the best hitters in MLB this season. I can't pass up this spot against a pitcher that he's crushed in the past.
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)
Matt Olson goes deep! pic.twitter.com/u6empK7d8H
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 3, 2025
Olson has been a bit underwhelming this season, putting up a .230/.379/.407 slash with five home runs in 140 plate appearances. But if we look a bit deeper, we see that the Braves slugger deserves better results this season.
This player has shown terrific plate discipline, including an 18.6% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate. We're seeing Olson crush the baseball, as highlighted by an 18.2% barrel rate. On top of that, Olson's expected stats look promising, featuring a .573 xSLG, much higher than his actual .407 slugging percentage.
While the Braves first baseman has only one homer in his last 10 games, he's been well above league average in xwOBA in his last 100 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant. In other words, Olson continues to hit the ball hard, which is an encouraging sign for a potential power binge soon.
We've got a good spot for Olson up next against Brady Singer, as the veteran slugger has one homer with a .405 xwOBA in nine plate appearances against the right-hander.
We're getting some solid value on an elite power hitter at (+400) in this matchup, so let's ride with Olson to hit his sixth homer of the season.
Lawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)
Lawrence Butler grand slam to crack it open! pic.twitter.com/tSz3ezLBRp
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 1, 2025
Butler is another hitter who doesn't have a stat line that impresses you too much on the surface, including a .242/.312/.414 slash with five homers in 141 plate appearances.
But the batted ball metrics still look good, as highlighted by an 11.8% barrel rate. This is a hitter who slugged 22 homers in only 451 plate appearances last season, so there's a lot of power upside here.
The main appeal of taking Butler tonight is the matchup against Bryce Miller. The A's outfielder has one homer in seven plate appearances against the Mariners' righty. This also includes a .765 xwOBA, so it's clear that Butler has been able to hit the ball hard vs Miller.
We also need to acknowledge the park factor here, as Sutter Health Park has been one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball so far this season. Playing in a minor league stadium like this can make it easier to hit home runs due to the smaller dimensions.
At (+400) odds, we're getting a reasonable price on Butler to go yard tonight, so let's add him to our list here.
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Chandler Simpson ROBS Manny Machado of a home run 😮 pic.twitter.com/ptLgb1Ecwo
— MLB (@MLB) April 27, 2025
Machado has gotten off to a slow start in the power department so far, including a .280/.344/.441 slash with only three homers in 131 plate appearances, although he was robbed of one by Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson as seen above.
But perhaps the veteran third baseman is at the start of a hot streak, as he homered against the Pirates yesterday. The batted ball metrics look good as well, as highlighted by a 12.4% barrel rate.
Up next is a tough matchup on paper in Carlos Rodon, as the Yankees' lefty has given up a combined two earned runs in his last three starts. However, Machado has succeeded against Rodon, putting up one homer with a .515 xSLG in 22 plate appearances versus the veteran lefty.
It also helps that Machado has performed well against southpaws throughout his career, registering a .215 ISO against them.
At (+475) odds, this is an appealing price on a hitter with 30+ HR power.
Mookie Betts OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+700 DraftKings)
Betts is slashing .267/.353/.448 with five home runs in 133 plate appearances this season. The Dodger outfielder has two hits in his last four games, including a homer against the Braves on Friday.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Sandy Alcantara, a pitcher who Betts has had success against, putting up two homers in 17 plate appearances vs the righty, including a .465 xwOBA.
You have to love getting a longshot price of (+700) odds on a hitter with 30+ homer power that's facing a pitcher that he's mashed in the past.
It also helps that Alcantara has gotten off to a poor start this season, including a 1.38 HR/9.
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