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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/18/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
The warmer weather has started to help the number of home runs increase around the league. While hunting for warm weather and favorable winds is one way to target home run spots, it's not the only way. There's no must-play park today with incredibly favorable conditions, so I will be digging deeper into the matchups, platoon splits, and batted ball data to bring you my favorite home run hitters on which to wager.
On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, May 18, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. I like to target guys with higher odds in these articles, so keep that in mind when reading!
Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also essential to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/18/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Sunday, May 18:
- Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
- Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
- Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
- Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I've been asked lately if I think Andrew Abbott has turned the corner and is now a good pitcher. While a lot of his underlying stats suggest that he's improved this year, I still think there's regression coming for the lefty, and I'm going to go after him today for a home run with one of the better power hitters against LHP over the last five years - J Ram.
José Ramírez crushes a 401-foot homer 💥 #RivalryWeekend pic.twitter.com/RAjiFaRK3F
— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2025
Abbott is still an extreme fly-ball pitcher with only a 25% ground ball rate. Pitching in the bandbox that is the Great American Ball Park with that tendency is going to catch up to him eventually. Today, we have a fairly light seven mph wind blowing out to center field that could help hitters if ever so slightly.
Ramirez also happens to be heating up at the plate, swatting three big flies over his last four games. He's two for five against Abbott in a very small sample size of BvP, but Ramirez against all lefties this season is slashing .394/.450/.667, and seven of his nine home runs have come as a right-handed hitter.
As a switch-hitter, Ramirez maintains his platoon advantage against any right-handed relievers that come into this game. I think we're getting a very nice price on a great hitter in a really solid hitting environment today.
Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+430 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sticking with the theme of hot hitters on the right side of their splits, Greene has homered twice in his last three games and is facing right-hander Jose Berrios of the Toronto Blue Jays today.
Riley Greene, last 20 games.
85 PA, .351/.412/.714, 4 2B, 8 HR, 20% K#RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/f44lfZaAnG
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) May 17, 2025
Greene has been heating up for some time now and trails teammate Spencer Torkelson by just one home run for the team lead (Greene has 11, Tork has 12).
Berrios has given up nine long balls already this season, and while four of them have come against lefties, his overall splits are still traditional with LHH hitting 50 points higher and earning a .363 wOBA against him. Greene has looked locked in at the plate lately, and even went opposite field for his home run against Bowden Francis on Friday in Game 1 of this series.
Junior Caminero OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+540 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I know my buddy Casey Wilson, who writes this column on Tuesdays and Thursdays, would never bet on a home run prop in Miami, as this park plays much more favorably to pitchers. However, I can't help but want to pick on Miami starter Cal Quantrill, who has some of the worst stats of any starting pitcher toeing the rubber today.
Quantrill enters this game with an ERA of 7.00 and an xERA of 6.14, which is the second-worst mark on the slate behind only Chase Dollander. He's allowing a 37% hard-contact rate and an 11.6% Barrel%.
Quantrill has shown sharp reverse splits, with righties slashing .417/.442/.694 against him this season. Four of the six home runs he has allowed have come to right-handed hitters, too.
Tampa's offense has been brutal, but Junior Caminero stands out as the best option here with how well he has hit for power against RHP. Six of his eight home runs have come against righties. The matchup is about as good as it gets for the young slugger; he should see some pitches from Quantrill that he can do some damage against.
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Will Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Smith doesn't have the volume of home runs under his belt like Jose Ramirez, but he's a well-known lefty-masher with some gawdy splits against Southpaws, too. Smith is slashing .393/.541/.750 against lefties this season and is walking as often as he's striking out.
Smith has something that a lot of other hitters don't have, and that's multiple MVPs and All-Stars hitting ahead of him and behind him. That elite lineup protection means he should see some good pitches to hit today from lefty Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi's surface stats look okay, but his batted ball metrics show that he's allowing 35% hard contact and a 10.3% barrel rate. With just a 40% GB%, he still has a fly-ball tendency, and he's shown some drastic splits this year with righties posting a .453 SLG% against him compared to just .216 by lefties. All seven home runs he has surrendered have come to right-handed hitters.
We have eight mph winds blowing out to right-center field at Dodger Stadium, which has the best park factor for right-handed home runs over the last three seasons (see pic below).
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)
After struggling to hit for power for much of last season, Carroll has rediscovered his power swing this season with 14 home runs through the first two months of the season.
Corbin Carroll's power is on full display this season, and it's just one facet of his game that has him firmly in early NL MVP discussions 👏 pic.twitter.com/gatUaFBfbJ
— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2025
These two teams (Arizona and Colorado) combined for 26 runs and seven home runs in yesterday's contest, so targeting this game today makes a ton of sense, especially with Rockies rookie Chase Dollander on the bump. While the youngster has shown a live fastball with a ton of velocity, he has also been hit very hard by opposing hitters to the tune of a 6.22 xERA and a whopping 17.5% Barrel%.
That's bad...like really, really bad. It's not just a product of pitching at Coors either, he's been lit up on the road a few times, too.
There are several worthy targets on the Snakes here for home run props, but I am going to keep it simple and just roll with their best overall hitter, Carroll. His price is significantly better on FanDuel today (where all five hitters have the better odds, in fact). We get Carroll on the right side of his splits and Dollander on the wrong side of his as the rookie has allowed five home runs to lefties and a .525 SLG%.
Conclusion
As the weather heats up and the long ball becomes more prevalent, savvy bettors know it's the perfect time to dig into MLB player props, especially home run props.
While today’s slate doesn’t feature any must-play weather or park conditions, sharp handicapping based on platoon splits, batted ball data, and recent form can uncover serious value.
When betting home run props, remember that shopping around for the best odds is crucial, and bankroll management is key due to their volatile nature. With the right research and a bit of luck, today’s MLB player props could deliver big returns. Stay sharp, trust the data, and enjoy the ride as these sluggers aim to go deep on Sunday’s slate.
Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!
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