Last But Not Least! Fifth Starters With Upside - Fantasy Baseball Sleepers for 2026

March 24, 2026

Thunder Dan's starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers - fifth starters with upside to target in 2026 drafts. His top SP picks include Rhett Lowder, Andrew Painter, more.

When examining the potential opening day rotations for all 30 teams, it's pretty clear that the quality of rotations varies greatly. The Dodgers have pitchers competing for their fifth spot in the rotation who could slot into one of the top two or three slots on most other teams, while the Colorado Rockies have a rotation made up of pitchers who would likely struggle to make most other rosters.

As we draw closer to Opening Day, I wanted to take a draw your attention to some battles for the fifth rotation spot across the league.

Some are veterans, while others are younger pitchers trying to latch on with the big league club out of camp. I'm not here to highlight well-established pitchers who are being drafted in the early or middle rounds. Instead, I'll be focusing on pitchers who are readily available late in drafts or who could be waiver wire pickups early in the season if they have some success out of the gate. All ADP used is from the NFBC over the last two weeks.

American League Potential Fifth Starters

I'm not going to Houston here, as they are pondering a six-man rotation with both Lance McCullers Jr. and KBO import Ryan Weiss in their final two slots - and I am not too keen on either of those pitchers, to be honest.

Mick Abel, Minnesota Twins

ADPs: 334

Abel appears to have won the fifth starter job in Minnesota, thanks to his league-leading 23 strikeouts this spring. That leaves Zebby Matthews on the outside looking in, but still a pitcher I don't mind stashing in the meantime.

Minnesota Twins' starting pitcher Mick Abel worked up to 79 pitches on Thursday after throwing 71 in his previous Spring Training outing. Abel's 14% swinging-strike rate was solid on Thursday against the Red Sox.

🥵Abel peppers his four-seam in the upper third of the zone
🪝He… pic.twitter.com/oaNUrU40ZM

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) March 20, 2026

But back to Abel, he has flashed some high-90s velocity and quality secondary pitches. If the command sticks, we're looking at a steal this late in drafts. His stock is certainly rising, so prepare to take him ahead of ADP.

Zach Eflin, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 354

This is a late addition, as Baltimore was expected to go with a six-man rotation, but just sent Dean Kremer down to Triple-A on Saturday.

Eflin was pretty bad last year, there's no getting around it. But at his best, he's one of the top control pitchers in baseball and an innings-eater with some WHIP potential.

He was impressive this spring with seven scoreless innings and ten strikeouts. He's worth a flier in the late rounds in case he bounces back this year.

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 314

IT HAPPENED! I had this section originally written up with Logan Allen as the fifth starter and a "hang in there, Messick drafters," message, but it was Allen who was sent to Triple-A, not Messick!

Messick is a crafty lefty who pitched well in his limited MLB innings last season. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but he had excellent batted ball results without having an overpowering fastball. I'm a big fan of his arsenal and have been taking him with one of my last few picks in standard drafts.

Luis Gil, New York Yankees

ADP: 330

You want the good news first, or the bad news? The good news is that Gil saw his strikeouts return this spring (26% K%) and kept his walks down (6% BB%). The bad news would be that he allowed six home runs and pitched to an ERA over 6.00.

He's not a pitcher I am actively targeting, but there's strikeout upside here. I do think he's the first starter to get kicked to the bullpen when Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon return, with Will Warren having a leg up on him to stick in the rotation.

Boone: Yankees will use 4-man rotation to begin season, via @ChrisKirschner:

Max Fried
Cam Schlittler
Will Warren
Ryan Weathers

TBD if Luis Gil will make Opening Day roster.

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) March 22, 2026

Johan Oviedo, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 433

The former Pirates prospect appears to have the best lead on the fifth spot in Boston's rotation, with the Red Sox likely opting to send down both their talented lefties (Payton Tolle and Connelly Early) to Triple-A. Oviedo had a strong spring, sporting an ERA of 1.59 over 11 innings with a 29% K%.

The walk rate is still a concern, but this is a pitcher with a lot of raw talent who is available late in drafts. I'm interested in deeper formats, for sure.

Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 687

Now here is a guy who came out of nowhere this spring. Hancock has finished with an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00 in his first three seasons, but finished behind only Mick Abel in spring training strikeouts with 21, while walking only one hitter.

Seattle Mariners' pitcher Emerson Hancock faced a depleted Brewers' lineup on Wednesday, but the four-seam was cooking, with a 36.8% swinging-strike rate. That was significantly higher than Hancock's four-seam SwK at 11.2% throughout his MLB career.

🚨Pitch mix change:
-Hancock… pic.twitter.com/yqBfUenQC1

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) March 19, 2026

He still had an ERA of 5.40, but the strikeouts are something to watch as we get started. He can be comfortably left on waivers for now, but add him to your watch list!

Luis Morales, Athletics

ADP: 616

Morales got his first taste of MLB competition last season, pitching 48 innings for the Athletics and finishing with a respectable 3.14 ERA. He's not a big strikeout guy (just 22% last year and 19% this spring), but sits 97 mph on his heater with a big slider.

Trusting any Athletics pitcher when they have to pitch at Sutter Health for half their starts is tough, but this is a young guy to keep an eye on, and maybe stream in some good spots on the road.

Steven Matz, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 617

I am sure there are a lot of  Ian Seymour fans out there who are disappointed that Matz and Nick Martinez are starting in the rotation over him, but you probably can't draft Seymour right now, as his promotion is anything but imminent.

Matz is a durable veteran who has solid control and can keep the ball on the ground. He's not all that exciting for fantasy, but he'll have a solid home ballpark factor, and I won't be surprised if he's solid for Tampa

National League Potential Fifth Starters

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 288

I have been fading Painter in drafts since he really struggled last season at Triple-A, coming back from TJ surgery, but I am ready to be wrong if he pitches well this season. It's usually a few years before pitchers return to their pre-TJ form (if they do), and Painter was once regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Andrew Painter lowered his 2026 Spring Training ERA to 2.31 after striking out 3 batters in 4 scoreless frames for the @Phillies today. pic.twitter.com/Kz5BAP9oRn

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 18, 2026

He started spring training slowly, but finished it up on a nice roll. He's not a target of mine, but someone in your league is drafting him, and I'm definitely not saying that he won't be good; he certainly has the talent.

Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 394

I guess if you like completely boring pitchers who could maybe help out your ratios, then Taillon is an option late in drafts. That's a bit harsh, sure, but his K% has dipped to 18% the last two seasons and was only 10% this spring. I'm just not all that interested in him; there are a lot of cheap pitchers with more upside. He's also been hit around this spring, inspiring very little confidence in his ability to miss bats at this stage of his career.

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 487

The Reds announced that they will keep Chase Burns, Lowder, and Brandon Williamson up with the team for Opening Day. What we don't know is if they'll go full with a full six-man rotation, or use Lowder and Williamson to "piggyback" every fifth start or behind Burns even, as they work up his pitch count.

I like Lowder's profile, and I think he's certainly worth monitoring since there is an opening in the rotation with Hunter Greene out at least half the year. But you can probably watch his progress from the waiver wire.

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 605

Soroka is set to crack the Snakes' rotation out of camp, after splitting time between the Cubs and Nationals last season, and the White Sox in 2024.

He wasn't really on my radar all spring, but struck out eight over five scoreless innings in his final spring start. He'll occasionally pop off like that against weaker lineups, but it's hard to trust him to be a consistent fantasy performer. Leave him on the wire until we see him do it a few more times.

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 559

Whether Roupp is the fifth, fourth, or even third best starter in the Giants' rotation is debatable, but at 27 years old, he's by far the youngest of their hurlers. He was very inconsistent last season, but definitely showed some upside with one of the nastiest curveballs in the game.

Landen Roupp, Wicked Curveballs. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/JL4lXF1aRo

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 11, 2025

A 27% K% this spring is a good reminder of his potential, though the 12% BB% also shows that control is still a bit of an issue. He's probably not a draft target in anything but the deepest of leagues (or NL only), but certainly a pitcher to keep tabs on this season.

Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

ADPs: 402, 546

The Brewers' rotation is quite fascinating. They may or may not have Brandon Woodruff back by the start of the season, leaving Jacob Misiorowski and Chad Patrick as the only two holdovers from last season as Freddy Peralta is now in New York.

Quinn Priester will start the season on the IL, and Milwaukee just sent Logan Henderson (a favorite among touts) and Robert Gasser (a lefty with a nasty curveball) down to the minors. That leaves Harrison and Sproat as the last two pitchers left to man the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation.

Harrison is very intriguing to me. He was one of the top prospects in the Giants organization before being shipped to Boston last year, where he pitched mainly at Triple-A with only 12 innings in the majors.

He's still just 24 years old and posted a 32% K% and 6% BB% in 10 spring training innings. Milwaukee has a solid track record with pitchers, so don't be surprised if they figure out how to get the most out of Harrison.

Sproat comes over in the Peralta deal from the Mets and offers significantly less upside in my opinion. His metrics last season were pretty poor, and I think he's probably a placeholder for Logan Henderson, who looked great in the big leagues last year and seems to be working his way through an early-season injury.

Keep an eye on Gasser and Henderson and this entire situation, it's quite possible we see all four of these young pitchers toss some significant innings for the Brew Crew in 2026.

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