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Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 2 of 2025. He looks at surprising performances from Daniel Jones, Javonte Williams, Quentin Johnston, Emeka Egbuka, Juwan Johnson.
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is officially in the books. We were treated to some really good games, like the shootout between the Bills and Ravens, and we also saw some unlikely faces emerge as top fantasy options.
But are those "unlikely faces" going to be regulars near the top of the fantasy scoring leaders list? Or should fantasy managers expect that it was just the weirdness of Week 1 at play?
Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme. Below, you'll find my analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 1. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?
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Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Week 1 stats: 22-of-29 for 272 yards and one touchdown, seven carries for 26 yards and two touchdowns -- overall QB3
There are two ways to talk about what Daniel Jones did in Week 1.
The first is to acknowledge that 12 of his fantasy points came via a rushing touchdown. Just one time in his entire NFL career has Jones rushed for more than two touchdowns in an entire season. If his ability to be a high-end fantasy quarterback is dependent on his ability to find the end zone as a runner, we can go ahead and mark Week 1 down as an anomaly.
The more interesting way to talk about Danny Dimes, though, is to talk about what he did with his arm, which I think might be sustainable. Obviously, if you take the rushing touchdowns out of the picture, this week's performance looks much worse, but he can potentially be a solid QB2 play.
Jones completed 75.9 percent of his passes in the opener, a mark that's pretty high considering his career numbers. But the six games he played in 2023 saw him post what was, at the time, the highest completion percentage of his career before a torn ACL ended his year.
Maybe Jones was still recovering from that knee injury when he stunk up the joint in 2024, and maybe a healthy Jones can be a solid quarterback this year. He had the league's lowest interception rate in 2022, his last full season. He has a decent cast around him in Indianapolis. He won't be a star or a consistent QB1 play, but there are worse streaming options.
Verdict: Fiction, but he might be a streaming play depending on the matchup
Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Week 1 stats: 15 carries for 54 yards and two touchdowns, two catches for 10 yards -- overall RB3
It's hard to believe in Javonte Williams this year, though the lack of other talent at running back in Dallas means he can probably be deployed in your lineups most weeks. Just don't expect the kind of RB1 production you got out of him in Week 1.
15 carries for 54 yards and two catches for 10 yards are pretty pedestrian numbers. They aren't, like, awful, but they don't scream "great running back" at you. His day was salvaged big time by the two rushing scores.
So, the question here becomes this: Can Williams continue to find the end zone? To that, I'd say ... probably not?
There's always some randomness involved in scoring touchdowns, but Williams entered this season with 11 total rushing scores across the first 54 games of his NFL career. That's not a great sign for continued success.
Getting goal-line work means Williams should have the highest touchdown number of his career, but it's still hard to view him as more than a high-end RB3.
Verdict: Fiction
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 1 stats: five catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns -- overall WR2
For all the talk about this being Ladd McConkey's year or about the return of Keenan Allen, it was Quentin Johnston who caught two of Justin Herbert's three touchdown passes and led the team in receiving yards.
It's a sign that people who wrote Johnston off back in 2023 were wrong to do so, but it's going to be hard to sustain this level of production simply because of the aforementioned McConkey and Allen.
Johnston led the team in yards, but both McConkey and Allen had more targets and receptions than he did. The touchdowns are nice, but touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict.
The Chargers are going to throw the ball a ton this year, so Johnston has appeal as a flex option, but the fact that he's competing for targets with two other players, including a veteran who has extensive experience with Herbert, will limit his appeal.
Verdict: Fiction, but he has decent upside going forward
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1 stats: four receptions for 67 yards and two touchdowns -- overall WR3
I was skeptical of Emeka Egbuka this offseason. He's a very good wide receiver, but going to a Buccaneers team with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin seemed like a recipe for a slow start to his NFL career.
However, I wasn't accounting for the slow recovery of Godwin from his ankle injury, which has kept him sidelined to begin the 2025 season. With Egbuka getting additional snaps with Godwin off the field, the rookie completely smashed in his NFL debut.
EMEKA EGBUKA. THE ROOKIE. AGAIN.
TBvsATL on FOXhttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/pLyQEvaSG4
— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025
Egbuka caught four of his six targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns. He also added one carry for nine yards.
So, now what? Egbuka has shown that he needs to be on the field as much as possible, but with Godwin expected to return in Week 5, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, this run might be slowed down fairly soon. There will be a lot of mouths to feed in Tampa then, and Egbuka tied with Sterling Shepard for second on the team in targets without Godwin in the way.
Verdict: Fact, though watch for a fall off once Chris Godwin returns
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints
Week 1 stats: eight catches for 76 yards -- overall TE4
So, are we going to fall for Week 1 Juwan Johnson again this year?
Last year, Johnson found the end zone in Week 1, then didn't do so again until Week 11. In 2023, his 36 yards in Week 1 were his most until Week 11. In 2022, his 43 yards were his most until Week 10. In 2021, he had two Week 1 touchdowns, then scored just two more touchdowns all season.
There's just something about the first week of the season that really ignites something in Johnson, and it happened again in 2025. This year, the numbers feel like they might actually mean something, as Johnson was targeted 11 times, catching eight passes for 76 yards. It was the most targets he's seen since Week 17 of the 2023 season, and he ran more routes on Sunday than any other tight end did in Week 1.
Most Routes Run by a TE in Week 1:
1) Juwan Johnson - 42
2) Sam LaPorta - 39
3) Hunter Henry - 37
4) David Njoku - 36
5) Kyle Pitts - 35
6) Travis Kelce - 33
6b) Trey McBride - 33
8) Harold Fannin Jr. - 30TE1 usage might be coming for Fannin with the Browns 12 personnel focus.
— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) September 8, 2025
It was clear that Spencer Rattler relied heavily on his tight end. It was also clear that the Saints are ready to just play things straight up in the Kellen Moore era, with Johnson playing 99 percent of snaps, by far the highest rate of his career. With Taysom Hill injured, the Saints are just putting their starters on the field for a ton of snaps and seeing what happens.
I want to believe in Johnson. We need a sixth-year breakout tight end because it's just always fun when we get a guy who randomly breaks out like that. However, I'm not ready to say we're going to get there. Johnson probably just had another good Week 1 that will fade into our memory over the next month, just the same as every year.
Verdict: Fiction ... probably
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