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Thunder Dan Paylo's deeper 2025 fantasy football draft sleepers that could be breakout performers. These are his later-round lotto tickets to target in drafts.
If you showed up 15 minutes late to your draft and the autodraft feature picked your first four picks for you, would you still be in a decent position to compete in your league? As long as you didn't get stuck with an injured player or something wonky, I think you would! The first 30 or 40 picks in any draft are fairly predictable, with the top rushing and receiving options on each team being obvious choices. But can you navigate the rest of the draft and snag players who will deliver value at their ADP and round out your roster?
Make sure you aren't the manager who is unfamiliar with the top running back handcuffs or rookies who are set to start further down on the depth chart.
In this article, I'll give you my six favorite late-round lottery tickets. These are high-upside picks that have a path towards fantasy viability this season if things go just right.
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Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB - Washington Commanders
- Sleeper ADP: 234
- Baller Move: 202
Let's start with a player who could prove to be the biggest lottery ticket out there. If you haven't been tuned into Washington's training camp this summer, the seventh-round rookie has been turning some heads with his shiftiness and hard-running style.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt pic.twitter.com/uqzVqE5BQs
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 9, 2025
JCM, who goes by the nickname "Bill", was already starting to become a trendy pick in the final few rounds of drafts, and then the rumors surrounding Brian Robinson Jr. grew louder and gained some legitimacy.
Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.https://t.co/TlcIx3Av1n
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 17, 2025
And then it happened. Robinson was indeed dealt to the 49ers, leaving JCM, Austin Ekeler, and Chris Rodriguez as the remaining backs in what looks like a running back-by-committee situation, at least to start the season.
Ekeler is best-suited for a complementary role as a pass-catching back, while JCM and Chris Rodriguez Jr. should share the early-down work in what should be a pretty good offense again in 2025. Commanders' head coach Dan Quinn recently said that Rodriguez would function as the short-yardage back, but it remains to be seen how those valuable carries get allocated.
Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt goes by "Bill"
Bill just went 27 yards to the 🏠
Watch on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/UD9tot9Iau— NFL (@NFL) August 19, 2025
There's some merit to drafting each of the three Washington backs in the late rounds, but JCM stands out as the guy who has the most upside and the best chance of leading the trio in touches by the season's end.
Woody Marks, RB - Houston Texans
- Sleeper ADP: 201
- Baller Move: 185
Another rookie running back who could see an opportunity early in the season to contribute is Woody Marks. After spending four years at Mississippi State, Marks went to USC in 2024 and ran for 94 yards per game while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Marks' strong super-senior campaign led to his selection in the fourth round of the 2025 draft by Houston.
Houston's incumbent lead back, Joe Mixon, is dealing with a foot injury that could keep him out Week 1 or even beyond. Mixon is backed up by Nick Chubb, who has looked a step slow in camp and is coming off a disappointing season in Cleveland. Chubb hasn't been the same since his season-ending injury in 2023, and Dameon Pierce is the only other back competing with Marks for touches.
Houston Texans Round 4 rookie RB Woody Marks - every rush/target - preseason game two pic.twitter.com/BfFVB1Ziz4
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 17, 2025
Pierce has already had his shot at being the lead back, and Dare Ogunbowale is just a third-down back, and Marks could even usurp the passing down work since he caught 261 passes over his college career.
Marks has made a big impression in camp and should be drafted as a handcuff for the Mixon/Chubb duo. A slow recovery for Mixon could get Marks into the mix for touches, and we know that Chubb has had his share of injuries over his career as well. Betting on Marks's talent and youth makes sense late in drafts.
Dont'e Thornton Jr., WR - Las Vegas Raiders
- Sleeper ADP: 188
- Baller Move: 172
While there were many receivers taken ahead of Thornton in this year's draft (he was selected in Round 4), he might end up being in one of the best positions to produce fantasy value in year one.
Thornton has both the size (six-foot-five) and speed (4.3-second 40-yard dash) of a prototypical NFL receiver. It didn't take him long to make an impression in Raiders workouts and practices, and he's set to enter the season as the WR2 on the depth chart.
Dont'e Thornton Jr. with a 4.30U!
HE'S 6'5 by the way! 🤯
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/sSLmT3iqq0
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) March 1, 2025
While Jakobi Meyers will operate alongside tight end Brock Bowers as the top options in the passing game, Thornton should function as the deep threat and should line up out wide. If the Raiders play a lot of 12 personnel (with Bowers and Michael Mayer as tight ends) and focus on running the football with Ashton Jeanty, then Thornton and Meyers would be the top two receivers on the field.
Despite being taken two rounds later than fellow rookie Jack Bech, Thornton has moved ahead of him on the depth chart and offers more upside with his ability to stretch the field and give Geno Smith a big play option in the passing game.
Elijah Arroyo, TE - Seattle Seahawks
- Sleeper ADP: 204
- Baller Move: 182
Arroyo offered some big-play ability last year in Miami, where he averaged over 17 yards per reception in his junior season, catching 35 passes for 570 yards and seven touchdowns.
At just 235 pounds, Arroyo is built more like a wide receiver than a tight end. That could lead to some struggles in the run game if he's asked to block some very big and strong defensive linemen. However, the release of Noah Fant should open some playing time for Arroyo, who offers more upside as a receiver than AJ Barner or Eric Saubert.
Good look at the pace Elijah Arroyo can move at to stretch the 2nd level. pic.twitter.com/KaHcGyKMiu
— Max Toscano (@maxtoscano1) August 16, 2025
Last season, Sam Darnold targeted his starting tight end, T.J. Hockenson, at least five times in every game from Week 12 on. With the departure of DK Metcalf this offseason, Seattle will be looking for help in the passing game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will surely be the top option, but there are plenty of targets up for grabs after that.
Adonai Mitchell, WR - Indianapolis Colts
- Sleeper ADP: 252
- Baller Move: 216
There have been nothing but good things said about Mitchell in Colts' camp as he enters his sophomore season in Indianapolis. He's coming off a rookie campaign where he was mainly a non-factor, both in fantasy football and in this Colts' offense.
Mitchell caught just 23 of 55 targets for 312 yards and no touchdowns. His 41.8% catch rate was one of the lowest in the entire NFL. He was limited to fewer than two receptions in all but two games last year, with a Week 10 performance where he went 6-71 against the Bills as his only big game.
Tons of praise for Adonai Mitchell, "He has been terrific. I mean, he has been, without question, the best separator on the field. He is he's always open." pic.twitter.com/VOmquVwTcw
— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) August 16, 2025
Many of Mitchell's struggles for consistency were linked to the inconsistent play of Anthony Richardson Sr. He had a very high aDOT of 14.1 yards as he was often targeted on deep routes, but so many of those targets were uncatchable as Mitchell had just four drops of those 32 incompletions. Mitchell's separation score of 2.6 was just fine, on par with players such as Courtland Sutton, Tank Dell, DK Metcalf, and Jakobi Meyers.
This year, he's shown an even better ability to get open thus far in camp. He should get plenty of playing time in two receiver sets, but the question will remain as to whether or not his quarterback can get him the ball consistently. With Daniel Jones being announced as the starting quarterback for Week 1, I am operating on the premise that Mitchell will see more catchable targets with Jones being a more established passer with better accuracy than Richardson.
His ability to take the top of the defense is something the Colts are going to need, as Michael Pittman Jr. is more of a possession receiver, and Josh Downs operates underneath as the primary slot receiver.
Mitchell is a boom/bust pick late in drafts, but he has the potential for some big spike weeks this season, similar to what Marvin Mims Jr. did last year in Denver, with his ability to get open down the field.
Isaac TeSlaa, WR - Detroit Lions
- Sleeper ADP: 239
- Baller Move: 224
Last year, the Detroit Lions' offense was an elite unit that provided massive fantasy value weekly. Jared Goff had some huge weeks, while Jahmyr Gibbs dominated, and both Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta had big spike weeks as well.
What the Lions lacked was a reliable third option at wide receiver. Neither Tim Patrick nor Kalif Raymond was able to fill the void left by the departure of Josh Reynolds. TeSlaa could be that guy this year and offers Goff another big target (six-foot-four) on the field along with LaPorta.
Isaac TeSlaa with an electric TD grab for the @Lions!
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/fhQhYqb4rA
— NFL (@NFL) August 16, 2025
TeSlaa has two touchdown catches this preseason already, and while he didn't post big numbers in college, he is a physically gifted player who continues to draw rave reviews from his coaches and teammates.
Let’s not forget Isaac TeSlaa is the 11th most athletic WR ever tested at the NFL Combine 👀
(via: @MathBomb) pic.twitter.com/GPYpSKxFtB
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) August 15, 2025
If we expect the Detroit offense to continue to churn out yards and put up big point totals, then grabbing as many pieces of this offense feels like a good idea. Teslaa is already 23 years old and is showing that he has the mentality and physical gifts to be a successful receiver in the pros. Investing in a Teslaa breakout early could pay big dividends down the stretch if he can carve out a meaningful role at some point this season.
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