MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/12/2025)

July 12, 2025

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/12/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, Jackson Chourio, Zach Neto, and Bo Bichette.

All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are on Saturday's schedule, with 15 games spread throughout the afternoon and evening. Most of the action is in the afternoon, with 11 games on the board before four more under the lights close out the day of action. Saturday sets up to be another fun day of home run props with plenty of options on the board. While there are a few aces to avoid, several of Saturday's starting pitchers have looked very smashable this season, setting up some strong home run props to consider.

The weather looks relatively cooperative today with some rain possible in Cincinnati and St. Louis, but not too much risk of postponement based on the forecast coming into the day. The forecast for a few parks includes some significant wind, so be sure to check the conditions before placing home run prop bets. Weather is one of several key factors to consider, along with park factor, game environment, matchup, current form, batted ball metrics, and platoon splits. Another important factor to consider is the odds themselves, since playing volatile outcomes like home runs at short odds can quickly burn through your bankroll without replenishing it enough when the picks do hit.

Below, you'll read about five of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 12, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile. You can also combine these props with other picks into SGP or round robin plays that provide even more potential upside. I typically play a small unit size on home run props, but round robins and SGP create the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one player prop hits.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/12/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, July 12:

• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
• Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
• Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
• Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DK)

The Braves are getting ready to host the All-Star game next week by facing the Cardinals in St. Louis. As long as the rain isn't a factor, they'll have a solid matchup against righty Erick Fedde. While it has been a disappointing season overall for the Braves, there have still been some bright spots, including Matt Olson's production.

Matt Olson appreciation post 👏🏼

.264/.364/.479
.842 OPS
134 wRC+
47 R
86 H
22 2B
16 HR
56 RBI
13.4% BB
23.0% K
156 Total Bases

8 OAA
5 FRV
3.4 bWAR
2.7 fWARpic.twitter.com/e5BQPBDCYd

— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) July 5, 2025

Olson has 17 homers on the season, including two in his last nine games. He has a 54.1% hard-hit rate on the season and an even better 56.0% hard-hit rate over that nine-game span. He has hit 13 of those 17 homers against right-handed pitching with a .371 wOBA on that side of the split.

The veteran will be on the strong side of the splits against Fedde, since lefties have hit eight of the 10 homers against Fedde this season with a .357 wOBA against him. Fedde has also been a better matchup at home, where he has a 5.65 ERA and 1.23 HR/9. Against lefties at home, his HR/9 jumps to 2.93.

Olson was just announced as the replacement for Ronald Acuna Jr. in the home run derby, and he can get his home run swing warmed up with a long ball this Saturday in St. Louis.

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DK)

Ramirez is another veteran doing work despite a struggling offense around him. He and the Guardians split a doubleheader against the White Sox on Friday and will be back in action Saturday afternoon against Sean Burke. The wind is forecast to be strong in Chicago, but it may be more of a cross breeze than a carrying wind blowing out. Either way, Ramirez has shown enough power potential to be a strong play.

The 32-year-old veteran switch-hitter has 18 homers on the season, with five in his last eight games, including this blast in Friday night's game against Chicago.

José Ramírez obliterates this baseball for the lead 💥 pic.twitter.com/n7XfttEbDz

— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2025

He has hit 10 of his 18 homers on the road and 14 of them against right-handed pitching. He will be on the strong side of both of those splits against Burke on Saturday afternoon.

Burke has allowed 16 homers in 18 games this season for the White Sox, posting a 4.40 ERA, 5.22 FIP, and 1.57 HR/9. Left-handed hitters have smashed nine of the 16 homers against Burke this season with a .346 wOBA. More of those homers have come at home than on the road as well.

Ramirez will look to stay hot against Burke on Saturday afternoon, and getting him at almost +300 feels like great value based on his recent form and how good this matchup is in Chicago.

Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DK)

The Brewers will face a second straight southpaw in their series against the Nationals, going against rookie Shinnosuke Ogasawara. The Brew Crew kept rolling on Friday night with their fifth straight win to move within one game of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.

Ogasawara gave up four runs on seven hits in 2 2/3 innings in his major league debut, after going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and two homers allowed in 24 innings in the minors before his promotion. He gave up a home run to Trevor Story in that loss, and the Brewers will look to continue his rude welcome to the majors in this outing.

Chourio is one of the Brewers' best right-handed bats and brings plenty of power, so getting him at these odds feels like a good value play. The 21-year-old has 15 homers on the season, and five of those (33%) have come against lefties in just 27% of his total plate appearances. He has also been productive at home against southpaws, hitting .290 against them at American Family Field with a .398 wOBA.

He hasn't homered since this lined shot almost a week ago, but he has a 52.2% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 93.3 miles per hour over his last eight games, which are dramatic improvements on his season-long numbers of 37.9% hard-hit rate and 87.8 miles per hour for exit velocity.

JACKSON CHOURIO GOES DEEP!! Chourio puts the Brewers on the board with a 2 run home run to left field!

Career Home Run # 36
Career RBI # 133
Career Hit # 243#Brewers#ThisIsMyCrewpic.twitter.com/N4PoknL2ud

— Jackson Chourio Hit List (@ChourioHitList) July 6, 2025

Last year, Chourio caught fire as the weather warmed up in June and July, and he's hitting the ball very well again this summer. Improved home run results could be just around the corner, starting with Saturday's matchup against Ogasawara or the struggling Nationals bullpen after the starter leaves the game.

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Zach Neto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400DK)

Neto is coming off back-to-back games with home runs after starting off the night right for the Halos on Friday against Ryne Nelson with this blast:

Zach Neto 🤝 leadoff homers

name a better duo 🤷 pic.twitter.com/mLOfPxZhFD

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 12, 2025

The Angels' 24-year-old shortstop has been outstanding after getting a late start to the season following offseason shoulder surgery, and he has 15 homers in his 75 games this season. Overall, he's hitting .275 with a .348 wOBA, but at home, he's hitting .291 with a .359 wOBA. He also has a .291 batting average against righties, including 11 of his 15 homers, giving him a .360 wOBA on that side of the split.

Neto has five homers in his last 17 games and a 48.8% hard-hit rate to go with a 16.3% barrel rate over that span. Hitting leadoff gets him a few more opportunities, and so far, he has been taking advantage of them.

On Saturday night, he'll get a good matchup against Arizona's struggling Zac Gallen, who has allowed 20 homers in 19 starts this season. Right-handed hitters have hit 11 of those 20 homers, and 11 have also come on the road. Gallen looked much better in his last start against San Diego, but he has still allowed nine homers in his six most recent starts. Over that span, opponents have a 55.2% hard-hit rate and 17.1% barrel rate against him.

With Gallen giving up so much hard contact and Neto coming in with great form, this should be a great home run prop to target on Saturday night.

Bo Bichette OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DK)

Another shortstop in the night games that I think is a great option for home run props is the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette. Bichette was in my picks for Friday as well, but didn't deliver a home run in his team's 7-6 win. He did go 2-for-5 with a double and a run scored, but didn't get his 13th homer of the season.

On Saturday night, he'll face off with lefty Jacob Lopez in homer-friendly Sacramento at Sutter Health Park with the wind blowing out. Over his last 20 games, Bichette has helped fuel the Blue Jays' surge to the top of the AL East with four homers and a 44.4% hard-hit rate while hitting .326 with a .383 wOBA.

He has dropped out of the leadoff spot since returning from a knee injury, settling into the cleanup spot against both righties and lefties. His last home run came almost a week ago against the Angels when he went yard against lefty Tyler Anderson:

Bo Bichette ties the game with a solo shot 💥 pic.twitter.com/ITewUjKoFS

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) July 6, 2025

He'll look for a similar shot against another lefty on Saturday. While Lopez has been good for the A's, he has allowed eight home runs in just 50 2/3 innings. Right-handed hitters have hit seven of the eight home runs against Lopez this season, while posting a .341 wOBA against him.

Even without any home runs on Friday, the Blue Jays' offense kept right on rolling, but against Lopez, I think they'll take advantage of Sutter Health Park with some long balls. I like Bichette's odds to connect on one this Saturday night.

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