MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/6/2025)

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/6/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including

So much baseball today and with very few rain concerns (plus warm hitting conditions), we should see plenty of long balls. Now it's just a matter of predicting who hits them! I've got some ideas to share with you and some juicy targets - let's hunt some homers!

The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, July 6, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/6/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, July 6:

• Colson Montgomery - CWS
• Vinnie Pasquantino - KC
• Eugenio Suarez - ARI
• Michael Busch - CHC
• Marcus Semien - TEX

Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let's kick things off with an exciting rookie! Colson Montgomery has brought some offense and defense with him to the big league level as he recorded a web gem in his debut and then followed that up with a 3-5 performance at the plate yesterday, which included a triple.

Colson Montgomery picks up his first 3 career hits in a @WhiteSox win 👏 pic.twitter.com/Nj0IHlEnHT

— MLB (@MLB) July 6, 2025

I want to continue to target Chase Dollander with lefties at home. Dollander's rookie season has been brutal, especially at Coors Field, where he owns a 9.62 ERA. Dollander has given up 15 home runs this season, with nine of those coming to lefties.

I strongly considered Andrew Benintendi here, but the odds on Montgomery are so tempting. He had 11 home runs at Triple-A before coming up and 18 in 2024, so he has some solid power for a middle infielder.

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The next two props come from the same game. We have two HR-prone pitchers facing off in the Royals-Diamondbacks game as Michael Lorenzen faces Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitcher we have referred to as "Disco" over the years is making his first start of the season for the Snakes but has a 4.82 ERA in four appearances out of the bullpen. He's allowed three home runs over his first nine innings in Arizona, not a good sign that he's on his way back to being a productive pitcher.

Disco missed all of last season but struggled with home runs in his final two seasons in San Francisco, posting a 1.35 and 1.89 HR/9 in 2022 and 2023.

Lefties have often been his Kryptonite, and the Royals just happen to have a big, powerful first baseman in their cleanup spot who hits from the left side of the plate.

Vinnie Pasquantino homers twice and drives in 6 as the @Royals pick up a win in the desert. pic.twitter.com/BCKZcXHxXm

— MLB (@MLB) July 5, 2025

Pasquantino hit two bombs in the opening game of this series on Friday. I like his chances of crushing one again today - if not off Disco, then possibly off the Arizona bullpen.

Eugenio Suarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Suarez continues to be one of the most feared power hitters in the game. He's sitting at 28 HR with a week left to play before the break and has homered in two of his last three games.

Eugenio Suarez has traditionally been a second-half player and if he gets even better in the second-half this year then oh boy 😅 pic.twitter.com/8R80yeRX5g

— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) July 5, 2025

Lorenzen makes for a good target here as he's a low-strikeout, high-contact pitcher who also has a fly-ball lean and some reverse splits.

Righties have clubbed ten homers off Lorenzen already this season, while he's allowed seven more to lefties. Righties are slugging .508 against him while compiling a .354 wOBA. At +400, Suarez is our worst odds today, and I'll happily take him there as I think it's a pretty good price for a hitter of his caliber in a solid matchup.

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Michael Busch OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Am I willing to chase a Michael Busch home run today? Yes, I think I am!

Busch is about as hot as a hitter can be right now. The Cardinals simply can't get him out as he's racked up four home runs in the first two games of the series.

Michael Busch’s last 7 AB’s:

7-for-7
4 HR
6 RBI
5 R
1 2B

Unreal pic.twitter.com/iiSi2okts9

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 5, 2025

The good news for St. Louis today is that the wind is going to be blowing in and not out, as it was yesterday. However, the bad news for St. Louis is that they have to send Erick Fedde to the mound to face these elite left-handed power hitters from the Cubs.

Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have been two of the best lefties in baseball this season, and now Busch is surging with a .293 average and 18 home runs of his own. Fedde has some dramatic splits, with lefties slugging 120 points higher than righties this season. Lefties have hit eight of the ten home runs that Fedde has allowed, too.

I expected to see Busch's odds around +300 after his recent barrage, but at +450, I am more than willing to take another shot at him. He's locked in right now and I wouldn't be surprised if he crushes one in the first or second at-bat against Fedde.

Marcus Semien OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Kyle Hart has found his way back into the Padres' rotation, but his results so far this season in six starts have not been good. Hart's ERA is over 6.00, and his 2.81 HR/9 is the third-worst on today's slate. Right-handers have done most of the damage against him, too, as they are slashing .338/.381/.688 with a .449 wOBA. Big Yikes!

The Texas righty that I like the most here is Semien, especially at these odds. While the veteran second-baseman struggled for a long stretch to start the season, he's been having a strong June and July and is helping to carry this Texas offense.

Semien has nine home runs on the season, but two of those have come in the last five games. He's had strong platoon splits throughout his career, though this year he's done more damage against RHP in terms of power.

At +600, I will take my chances on a guy who has been one of the best power-hitting infielders of the last decade.

Good luck if you are tailing these bets today, and remember to bet responsibly! Thanks for reading and for making RotoBaller your one-stop shop for all things baseball!

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