Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em and Sit 'Em For Week 16

December 19, 2024

Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of the 2024 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 16 lineups?

If you're reading this, chances are you are officially in the fantasy football playoffs. If that is the case, congratulations. The job, however, isn't done. There are two more weeks until fantasy football glory. To do that, we need to win on the margins.

You'll find my top 25 rankings for Week 16 in this article. These are broken down into four categories -- must start, strong start, preferred streamer, and desperation start. This week, we'll also identify some tight ends with the best and worst matchups. Fantasy managers should attempt to target or avoid these players.

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Must Starts

1. Trey McBride

2. George Kittle

3. Brock Bowers

4. Jonnu Smith

5. Sam LaPorta

6. T.J. Hockenson

Strong Starts

7. David Njoku (didn’t play last week due to a hamstring injury. Reports are optimistic he’ll return this week, but this requires monitoring. He did not practice yesterday)

8. Travis Kelce

9. Pat Freiermuth

10. Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews has played 10 games against PIT ... 0 TDs

Mark Andrews has played 26 games against CLE and CIN ... 18 TDs

— Adam Aizer (@AdamAizer) December 18, 2024

11. Tucker Kraft

12. Jake Ferguson

13. Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid's per-route rate ranks among 31 qualified tight ends in 2024:

- TE2 in targets per route run
- TE7 in yards per route run

Even with only two TDs, Kincaid ranks in the same range as David Njoku, Evan Engram, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta in PPR points per route. pic.twitter.com/w6KiM93xh1

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 16, 2024

Preferred Streamers

14. Brenton Strange

15. Cade Otton

16. Hunter Henry

17. Zach Ertz (suffered a concussion last week, which will require monitoring throughout the week. He did not practice yesterday)

Desperation Starts

18. Chig Okonkwo

19. Dalton Schultz

20. Stone Smartt

21. Kyle Pitts

22. Mike Gesicki

23. Cole Kmet

24. Juwan Johnson

25. Noah Gray

Matchup Upgrades

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Njoku missed last week due to a hamstring injury, but the Browns gave him a chance to play on Sunday. He tested it out pregame but was ultimately ruled inactive. Head coach Kevin Stefanski called him “day-to-day” late last week, and Njoku stated he intended to play. All those things lead me to believe he’ll return to the lineup this weekend.

However, Jameis Winston has been benched, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be the starter at quarterback. That’s a significant downgrade for Njoku and the entire Cleveland offense. Yes, Winston turned the ball over a lot, but he also was able to move the football and put up box score numbers, even if they didn’t always lead to wins.

In DTR’s three starts last year, Njoku had 31 targets, 19 receptions, and 161 yards. He had at least seven targets in all three games, along with at least six catches and 45 yards. He had outputs of 7.6, 8.9, and 9.1 half-PPR points with no touchdowns. Good volume and a solid floor but a limited upside.

Cincinnati allows the most points to tight ends this season. They’ve given up 13.8 half-PPR PPG, but those same tight ends are averaging just 10.5 for the rest of the season. That means Cincinnati allows a 3.3 half-PPR PPG increase to tight ends this season.

If Njoku is active, he’s as close as you can get to a must-start. The quarterback switch creates some concern regarding upside, but DTR peppered Njoku with targets the last time he was under center. He finished with a 28.7% target share.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth has been on a roll recently. He’s found the end zone in three straight weeks, averaging 49 yards per game over the last four weeks. Over that time, he’s averaging 11.4 half-PPR PPG and is the TE5. George Pickens has missed the previous two games and may miss this one, too.

Freiermuth has an 18.7% target share without Pickens. While we always love to see a player’s production increase, with Freiermuth, we can point to why, which is even better. His volume and utilization have increased in recent weeks. As previously noted, in the last two weeks, he has had an 18.7% target share. Over his last four, his target share is 17.5%. That’s notably higher than earlier in the season.

On top of that, Freiermuth has a great matchup in Week 16 against the Ravens. While these games have historically been low-scoring, it has a 44.5-point implied total. The Steelers could be playing from behind, increasing their passing volume. Baltimore has given up 10.2 half-PPR PPG to tight ends this season. That’s the 11th-highest in the league.

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

Okonkwo is coming off one of his best games as a pro. He had ten targets, eight receptions, and 59 yards against the Bengals. They’ve been the easiest matchup for tight ends, but it was still nice to see Okonkwo deliver. That’s because he has another great matchup this weekend.

The Colts allow the third-most fantasy points to tight ends at 12.8 half-PPR PPG. Tight ends have seen a 3.4 half-PPR PPG increase while facing Indianapolis. The tight ends Indy has played this year are scoring just 9.4 half-PPR PPG when not facing the Colts.

It’s another excellent matchup, and the quarterback switch from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph should be viewed as a positive for all the Tennessee pass-catchers. If there’s one concern here, outside of the obvious (Okonkwo’s lack of consistency throughout his career), it's that this game could be a low-scoring, defensive affair.

Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars

Strange started four weeks early in the season and averaged 4.5 targets, 3.0 receptions, and 30 yards per game. He had one game over 25 yards. However, he got the start again last week with Evan Engram on IR and finished with 12 targets, 11 receptions, and 73 yards en route to a 12.8 half-PPR point performance.

Jaguars TE Brenton Strange made a bunch of tough catches with many big hits while fighting for YAC pic.twitter.com/pwlkUXOCr4

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 17, 2024

He’ll get the start again this week in another favorable matchup. The Jaguars play the Raiders, who have given up 12.5 half-PRR PPG to tight ends this season. That’s the fourth highest. A matchup against the Raiders has been worth 2.6 more half-PPR PPG games this season for tight ends.

Mac Jones looked competent last week. It’s another great matchup, and Strange looks locked in as Jones’ No. 2 preferred target. While touchdowns may be tough to come by, he should have plenty of volume to give fantasy managers a quality outing.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay has been one of the worst pass defenses in the league this year. They’ve allowed the third-most yards and the 12th-most passing touchdowns. That generosity has translated well for opposing tight ends. The Bucs have allowed 11.8 half-PPR PPG, sixth highest in the league. Tight ends have scored 2.1 more half-PPR PPG in matchups against the Buccaneers than they have compared to their seasonal average.

Cooper Rush has been a solid starter for Dallas and kept the offense on track. In his last five starts, he’s averaging 22 completions, 239 yards, and 1.8 touchdowns per game. During that time, they’re averaging just over 24 points per game. Dallas vs Tampa Bay has the highest-implied point total for the Week at 48.5. This could very well turn out to be a shoot-out. If that's the case, Ferguson has a great matchup.

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Schultz is tough to trust. He has just three games with more than 35 yards this season. He has only one touchdown. The production has not been there. One would think the matchup between Houston and Kansas City could be high-scoring, but it has just a 40.5-point implied total. That’s the second lowest of the week.

However, the Chiefs have been vulnerable to tight ends. They’ve allowed 12.4 half-PPR PPG to them, the fifth highest. That’s 2.9 half-PPR PPG higher than the seasonal average of the tight ends they’ve faced this season. It’s an appealing matchup, but it’s still one to be cautious of.

Matchup Downgrades

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Kmet has just four targets, four receptions, and 40 yards in the last three weeks. You’d have to be desperate to put Kmet in your lineup. As hopeless as you may be, the matchup doesn’t even give you a slimmer of hope.

Detroit has given up just 6.3 half-PPR PPG to tight ends this season. That’s the fewest in the league. Injuries have decimated their defense, but their safeties are still healthy and elite. The last time Kmet played the Lions, he had three catches for 26 yards, finishing with 4.1 half-PPR points.

Tight ends have scored 2.4 half-PPR PPG, the fewest against Detroit compared to their other games this season. Kmet has averaged 6.3 half-PPR PPG. If we take away 2.4, we get 4.0 half-PPR, roughly what he scored last time. Avoid.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Maybe Michael Penix Jr. can give this passing offense some life. Kirk Cousins has been dreadful the past couple of weeks and was sent to the bench. Not just from an efficiency standpoint, but they’ve drastically lowered the passing volume due to the poor inefficiency. It’s a double-edged sword effect, and it’s been bad news for the Atlanta pass-catchers.

Penix, however, is still a rookie, but he does get the Giants. That’s been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks and receivers, but not so much for tight ends. They’re scoring just 7.3 half-PPR PPG against New York, which is the third lowest in the league.

Just one tight end has scored double digits against the Giants all season. A matchup against the Giants is worth 1.0 half-PPR PPG less than their seasonal average. They’ve handled the position well, and Pitts is in the midst of another disappointing season. The matchup is terrible. The quarterback situation adds unknowns. The implied point total for this game is just 41.5, third lowest of the week. Pitts has been terrible.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders

Ertz suffered a concussion last week, so his availability throughout practices this week will need to be tracked. He didn't practice yesterday. Ertz is averaging 7.7 half-PPR PPG for the season and is currently TE13.

Zach Ertz (concussion) doesn't practice Wednesday.

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) December 18, 2024

Ertz scored 15.7 half-PPR points in his last matchup against Philly; however, almost all of that came on their final drive when they were down 26-10. On the game's final drive, Ertz had four catches, 22 yards, a touchdown, and a two-point conversion, equaling 12.2 of his final 15.7 points. He had just 3.5 half-PPR points through 92.6% of the game.

Now, garbage time points count the same; however, counting on them, depending on them, or making future decisions based on them is something else entirely. Philadelphia has been a brutal matchup for tight ends this year.

The Eagles have allowed just 8.2 half-PPR PPG to them, sixth lowest. Tight ends have scored 1.7 fewer half-PPR PPG facing Philadelphia compared to their other games this season. It’s a matchup I’d rather avoid if I can.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Since Drake Maye took over, Henry is averaging 6.9 targets, 5.1 catches, and 50.6 yards per game. Over a 17-game schedule, that would equate to 117 targets, 87 receptions, and 859 yards. The volume has been good. The problem is that he has just one touchdown.

That’s not just bad luck. Maye is only averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game. There are not many scoring opportunities for the New England offense right now. Henry is a volume-play, someone you trust not to bust.

However, there’s not much ceiling. Henry is TE12 from Weeks 6-15, averaging 8.3 half-PPR PPG. In nine games with Maye, he has three double-digit games and none higher than 13.2 half-PPR. He’s been consistently unspectacular.

This week’s matchup presents more risk. Buffalo is allowing just 8.3 half-PPR PPG to tight ends this year, the seventh lowest in the NFL. They’ve allowed just two tight ends to score more than 8.5 half-PPR points this season.

The first is Noah Gray. He had four catches and just 25 yards. He just happened to fall in the end zone on two of them. The other was Sam LaPorta, in that wild 48-42 game where Jared Goff finished with 494 yards passing and five touchdowns.

Do you trust Henry to catch two touchdown passes or Maye to throw for over 450 yards? If not, you should be lowering Henry in your rankings this week. A matchup against Buffalo for tight ends has meant 2.0 fewer half-PPR PPG compared to their seasonal average.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

The days of Kelce being a set-it-and-forget-it tight end starter are gone. He’s TE6 for the season (I’m not counting Taysom Hill) with an 8.8 half-PPR PPG average. He’s still a strong start, but the Kansas City passing attack hasn’t been what we’ve been accustomed to, and Kelce isn’t the same player he once was.

This matchup has a 41.5-point implied total. That’s the second lowest of the week. Despite Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud as the starting quarterbacks, the books aren’t expecting any fireworks in this one. That’s red flag No. 1.

The other red flag is the Houston secondary. While they have given up the fourth-most passing touchdowns, they’ve also allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards. Houston has been stingy to tight ends, as well.

They’ve allowed just 8.3 half-PPR PPG to the position, tied for the seventh lowest. Tight ends have scored 0.4 fewer half-PPR points against Houston than their seasonal average. Kelce should still be started but considering the low implied-point total and how well Houston’s defense has fared against tight ends, it’s best to lower expectations.

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