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Lauren looks at several fantasy baseball starting pitcher sleepers who could be in for a big season in 2024.
The four pitchers listed below will likely end up in their team's rotation one way or another, but the question is whether they can exceed expectations in 2024. Each flashed greatness in their own way in 2023, and all possess the potential and the stuff to have an even more successful year.
Fantasy drafts are already underway, and many will occur within the next month. Here are four fantasy baseball starting pitcher sleepers for fantasy managers to consider in 2024.
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Michael King, RHP, San Diego Padres
On the cusp of presumably losing reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell in free agency, the Padres added a new face to their rotation. Michael King joined San Diego as part of the deal for Juan Soto in December. The former Yankee has experience in the bullpen and as a starter. He appeared in both roles during the 2023 campaign. With the Padres, however, he's expected to take over as a full-time starter.
King began the year in the bullpen for New York, posting a 3.08 ERA across 64.1 innings, and even saved six games. He then seamlessly transitioned to a starter, making nine starts and pitching to a 2.23 ERA. He struck out 127 batters in a career-high 104.2 innings of work, good for nearly a 30 percent strikeout rate. The 28-year-old certainly boasts some major upside for the Padres, and he should benefit from the more pitcher-friendly Petco Park, his new home stadium.
STRIKEOUT NUMBER 13 FOR MICHAEL KING, WHAT AN OUTING! #NYY pic.twitter.com/CAXcmf6tZT
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) September 21, 2023
As long as King's arm isn't feeling depleted from last year's workload and he remains healthy, ATC projects him to toss new career-highs in innings (134) and punchouts (148) to the tune of a 3.59 ERA. An ADP of 146.7 and RotoBaller rank of 124 make him a great value pick in the middle-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts. King should definitely be a name to consider at his ADP.
Bryan Woo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have one of the strongest (and youngest) rotations in baseball with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Seattle added to that depth last season following the debut of Bryan Woo in June. He turned 24 in January and is expected to slot into the backend of the M's rotation in 2024.
Bryce Miller has a light session off the mound. He and Bryan Woo will be on a schedule similar to George Kirby last season. pic.twitter.com/s7l1uV1aLa
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) February 16, 2024
Woo made 18 starts last season and collected four wins while striking out 93 in 87.2 innings. The walks were a problem, though, as he gave 31 free passes. His 4.21 ERA and 4.36 FIP were also uninspiring, and he had a few rocky starts during his rookie year. On the bright side, Woo allowed minimal hard contact, resulting in an 82nd and 83rd percentile ranking in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, respectively. He's still experiencing some growing pains, but he boasts a five-pitch arsenal that's largely effective, particularly against righties. Right-handed batters hit just .179 and slugged .268 against him in 191 plate appearances. Meanwhile, lefties had an OPS of .928 when facing him in 180 appearances.
Because of how drastic these splits are, Woo might eventually move to the bullpen, but he'll still have SP eligibility. Assuming he wins either the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation, ATC projects Woo to have a 3.91 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 131 innings. He places 196th in RotoBaller's rankings, a good bit better than his 225 ADP.
Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Like Woo, Brandon Pfaadt also made his major league debut last season. Things didn't start out well for the 25-year-old, allowing seven earned runs against Texas in his first start on May 3. He was optioned to the minors in May and June but was finally called up for good at the end of July. From there, he began to find his footing in Arizona's rotation and eventually faced the Rangers in the World Series.
So, how exactly did Pfaadt go from having an ERA over 9.00 in the first half to earning starts during the D-backs' unlikely postseason run? Well, he drastically improved down the stretch for Arizona with a 4.22 ERA in 12 starts, striking out 73 batters in 70.1 innings. This refinement may be attributed to adding a sinker to his pitch arsenal and shifting from the third-base side to the first-base side on the mound.
Brandon Pfaadt in the NLDS/NLCS...
3 GS, 14 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 18 K (1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP)
He's a major reason why Arizona has made it to the World Series.pic.twitter.com/ijWQODDFqy
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 25, 2023
Strangely, Pfaadt's best outings of the season arguably came in the NLCS versus the Phillies. In the seven-game series, he made two starts and struck out 16 in 9.2 innings, allowing just two earned runs. He came back down to earth in the World Series, but the postseason experience will serve the youngster well. With his rookie year behind him and a spot in the rotation ahead of him, ATC projects 141 innings pitched, 134 strikeouts, a 4.33 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP for Pfaadt in 2024. His RotoBaller ranking of 232 closely aligns with his ADP of 250.7.
Cristopher Sanchez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Beyond starters Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez, the rest of the Phillies' rotation is somewhat of a question mark. Taijuan Walker will most likely serve as their fourth starter, but the fifth spot is up for grabs. Cristopher Sanchez, who debuted with the club in 2021, has the most compelling case for the job.
The 27-year-old turned in his best season yet in 2023. He had a career-best 3.44 ERA and 3.99 FIP across 18 starts for Philadelphia and set a career-high in innings pitched (99.1). Sanchez held free passes to a minimum, walking just 16 batters, which placed him in the 98th percentile in BB%. He's not typically a strikeout pitcher, and although he had 96 punchouts last year, his stunning ground-ball rate of 56.2% is where he got the most outs. However, his changeup was particularly nasty, generating a 43% whiff rate.
Cristopher Sanchez's 10 Strikeouts by Changeups. 😲 pic.twitter.com/j7zz0tPiRW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 25, 2023
Sanchez finding some semblance of consistency was huge for the Phils, and they're hoping he can continue to step it up in 2024 by taking control of their final rotation spot. Should he earn it, which seems to be the most likely outcome, ATC projects him to throw 137 innings to the tune of a 4.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 121 strikeouts. His RotoBaller ranking of 240 is significantly better than his 342 ADP, which he could be on track to outperform.
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