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With the 2023 season winding down, it's never to early to look ahead and start preparing for 2024. Yes, I'm aware it's still September and we have a few games left to go this season, but I wanted to look ahead to next draft season and project how I think the first two rounds of 2024 drafts will go.
I'll be diving into my projected first round today and will go over the second round later this week. The first 7-8 spots or so were very difficult to put in order and all of them can make a case for a top-3 selection. And really, the only easy spot in this entire article was slotting a certain Atlanta Braves' outfielder in the #1 spot.
And remember, these are not my personal rankings. This is simply how I believe 2024 ADP will shake out.
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2024 Fantasy Baseball: Projecting The First Round
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF - ATL)
This is going to be the easiest #1 pick in the history of fantasy baseball. There's literally zero debate and taking anyone other than Ronald Acuña Jr. is not advised and might even make your ancestors roll over in their graves.
One could argue that Acuña is having the best fantasy season ever. He needs just two steals over the final week to secure the first-ever 40/70 season and has 143 runs, 101 RBI, and a .336/.415/.595 slash line to go along with it. And on top of that, Acuña has trimmed his strikeout rate from 23.6% to 11.3%. With Ohtani not pitching in 2024, there's no one that can challenge Acuña for this top spot.
2. Mookie Betts (2B/OF - LAD)
After Acuña is where 2024 drafts get interesting. Honestly, you could take any of the next four players at #2 overall and I wouldn't have any issues with it. But for me, I'd go with Mookie Betts. The trio of Carroll, Rodriguez, and Tucker might be a tad sexier, but Mookie is as safe as they come and finishing up one of the best offensive seasons of his career. In 146 games, Betts is slashing .309/.410/.590 with 125 runs, 105 RBI, 13 steals, and a career-high 39 home runs.
Betts is still in the middle of his prime, in a loaded offense, and will retain second base eligibility along with his usual outfield heading into 2024. And depending on your league eligibility thresholds, maybe even shortstop as well. Getting this production with two or three position eligibility doesn't seem fair.
3. Corbin Carroll (OF - ARI)
In order for a rookie to be put this high in an article like this, they would have to put together a monster fantasy season like Corbin Carroll did this year. With a few games to go, Carroll already has 25 home runs and 50 steals with 111 runs, 73 RBI, and a .285/.361/.508 slash line.
There were high expectations for Carroll entering the season given his minor league track record and exciting power/speed blend, but he blew right past those expectations. There's no reason to believe Carroll can't push another 25/50 season in 2024 as long as his shoulder is fine.
4. Julio Rodriguez (OF - SEA)
After an 0/4 game on May 21st, Julio Rodriguez was slashing a disappointing .204/.280/.376 in 200 plate appearances, albeit, with seven home runs and eight steals. But since then, Rodriguez has been one of the best hitters in baseball once again with a .316/.368/.546 slash line in 486 plate appearances along with 24 home runs and 28 steals.
All in all, a 31/36 season after going 28/25 in his 2022 rookie season is a damn fine follow-up performance. Given his elite blend of power (52.3% hard-hit rate), speed (98th percentile spring speed), and performance over his first two seasons, Rodriguez is a lock to be a top-5 pick once again in 2024 and could go as high as #2 in some drafts.
5. Kyle Tucker (OF - HOU)
Part of me wanted to put Kyle Tucker higher than this, but it's just so difficult to do so with the names above him. In general, Tucker is 100% deserving of a top-3 selection as he's finishing up his second consecutive season with at least 25 home runs, 25 steals, and 100 RBI. You could also make a case that this has been Tucker's best all-around season to date as he's recorded career-best marks with a 13.3% strikeout rate, 12% walk rate, 87.3% zone contact rate, and 18.3% whiff rate. Let's just hope Dusty Baker continues hitting Tucker 3rd or 4th where he belongs and not down in the 5th spot.
6. Fernando Tatís Jr. (OF - SDP)
Fernando Tatís Jr is another player that has a strong case to be taken higher than this and probably will go inside the top-3 of some 2024 drafts. After missing the 2022 season, Tatís returned to his old ways with another 25/25 season, albeit, with a lower AVG, OBP, and SLG than he had in 2020 or 2021.
Tatís also saw his quality of contact metrics fall from elite levels to simply very good levels with a 11.2% barrel rate and 49.6% hard-hit rate. He's absolutely a top-5 talent, but he has slightly more rise than the five names ahead of him which is why he slots in at #6 for me.
7. Bobby Witt Jr. (SS - KCR)
Seriously, the top of the 2024 draft board is the most loaded I've seen in a few years. When I first thought about writing this, I envision Bobby Witt Jr being 4th of 5th. And I'm probably going to sound like a broken record here, but he absolutely has the talent to go a few spots higher than this. But just look at the names he's battling with.
After posting a 20-homer, 30-steal season as a rookie, Witt has taken a nice step forward here in 2023. In 668 plate appearances so far, Witt has racked up 29 home runs, 45 steals, 92 runs, 93 RBI, and a .273/.316/.489 slash line. He's improved basically across the board offensively, including in the whiff, chase, and zone contact rate departments. This is a five-category stud that absolutely could challenge 30/50 once again in 2024.
8. Aaron Judge (OF - NYY)
If Aaron Judge didn't miss about 1/3 of the season this year, he'd likely be a few spots higher for me. And honestly, he probably should be. Judge actually posted a higher barrel rate, AVG EV, and hard-hit rate this season than he did last season in his record-setting 62-homer season, which is simply remarkable. And even with the missed time, he still currently has 35 home runs, 71 RBI, and 74 runs scored.
The only reason why he slides to #7 for me is the fact that he's only exceeded 500 plate appearances three times in his career and I wonder how his larger frame will age as he progresses further into his 30s. If you want to take him a few spots higher than this, I won't have any argument.
9. Freddie Freeman (1B - LAD)
Is Freeman as sexy of a draft pick as the young power/speed starts that will be drafted around him? Not quite. But remember, sexy doesn't always win championships. Freeman has been arguably the most consistently elite players in the entire league.
- Has hit at least .295 in each of the last eight seasons and at least .276 in each of the last 11 seasons.
- Has posted at least a .388 OBP in each of the last eight seasons and at least .370 in each of the last 11 seasons.
- Has seven straight full seasons of at least 20 home runs
- Surpassed 100 RBI in three of the last four full seasons.
- Scored over 100 runs in each of the last four full seasons and led the league in runs for three straight seasons from 2020 to 2022.
There aren't many players whom you can basically guarantee first-round production from, but Freeman is certainly one of them.
10. Jose Ramirez (3B - CLE)
While Jose Ramirez's 2023 season wasn't quite as impactful as his 2021 pr 2022 campaigns, you can't argue with a 24/27 season from a 3rd baseman while adding 86 runs, 80 RBI, and a .281/.355/.481 slash line. This marks the 5th straight full season in which Ramirez has exceeded both 20 home runs and 20 steals, and barring injury, I'm not going to bet against him extending that streak to six seasons in 2024.
Getting your third baseman early will be a focus for many once again in 2024, and why not grab one that can also provide plenty of speed from a position that generally lacks impact in that department. Honestly, I might even be too low with having JoRam at #9 overall.
11. Trea Turner (SS - PHI)
If I did this article back in early-August, there's a strong chance that Trea Turner wouldn't have even been considered for inclusion. At that time, Turner was slashing a disappointing .236/.289/.367. Those that drafted him 1st or 2nd overall in 2023 drafts were rightfully pissed off. But I'm sure their feelings have pulled a 180 as Turner has been a fantasy force for the last two months and is now up to 26 home runs and 29 steals with a few games to go.
Since August 5th, Turner has slashed .332/.385/.680 with 12 doubles, 16 home runs, and eight steals. And even though the journey itself was as up and down as you can get, you can't be mad with a near 30/30 season. Turner won't be a top-5 pick for me in 2024, but he's still worth of a first-round selection and likely within the top-10 picks on draft day.
12. Juan Soto (OF - SDP)
While Juan Soto's 2023 season didn't start as poorly or last as long as Turner's did, the Goato was still slashing a measly .178/.339/.344 after an 0/5 performance in April 26th. However, since then Soto has been back to his old ways with a .292/.421/.544 slash like, 28 doubles, 29 home runs, 96 RBI, 10 steals, and more walks (105) than strikeouts (96). And over the last month, Soto is slashing a robust .347/.460/.663 with nine home runs, five steals and only 14 strikeouts in 125 plate appearances.
While the fantasy upside isn't quite as high as the names above him, Soto has one of the highest floors in baseball. You can pencil him in for more than 90 runs, around 30 home runs, an average north of .270, and he's a mortal lock to post an OBP north of .400 as he's done in each of his six Major League seasons.
13. Shohei Ohtani (UT - LAA)
Given the fact that he's having Tommy John surgery, figuring out where to slot Shohei Ohtani was challenging. For 2024, we'll only have the offensive side of this fantasy baseball unicorn, but I believe that's still worthy of a first-round selection, even with a UT-only tag which I'm sure will make some drafters shy away. But you can absolutely draft a UT-only player early and still build good roster around that.
Given his two-way prowess, we often overlook just how impactful each version of Ohtani can be as a standalone performer. Ohtani is coming off a 2023 season where he slashed .304/.412/.654 with 44 home runs and 20 steals while ranking in the top-5% of hitters in barrel rate, AVG EV, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBACON, hard-hit rate, and walk rate. Assuming he's able to hit with no restrictions in 2024, Ohtani should still be considered a first round selection.
14. Spencer Strider (SP - ATL)
Given that I'm modeling this after 15-team NFBC style formats, we're absolutely going to see a pitcher or two go in the first round on average. While Strider's ERA currently sits at 3.81, all of his ERA indicators are much lower including his 3.03 xERA. Even if he's not posting a sub-3 ERA, Strider's elite strikeout impact still makes him the #1 pitcher off the board for me. Leading into his last start of the regular season, Strider is sitting with a strikeout rate above 37% for the second consecutive season and has improved his contact, chase, and whiff rates this season as well.
15. Yordan Alvarez (OF - HOU)
Thankfully, Yordan Alvarez played enough outfield this season to avoid having the UT-only tag in 2024 drafts, but now I'd just wish that the guy would stay healthy for an entire season. Alvarez is wrapping up his third straight 30-homer, 90-RBI season while hitting above .295 for the second consecutive season. However, he's yet to exceed 600 plate appearances in a season and won't exceed 500 this season.
You know what you're getting with Alvarez. He's an elite four-category performer and arguably the best all-around hitter in the game. In each of the last three seasons, Alvarez has recorded a barrel rate above 15%, an average EV above 93 mph, and a hard hit rate above 52%. And in each of the last two seasons, he's had a walk rate above 13% and a strikeout rate below 19%. If you're more risk-averse or want speed from your first-rounder, I can absolutely understand going another direction here, but you can't deny that Alvarez is a first-round talent and could be a top-5 player capable of putting up an Aaron Judge type of season if he can sniff the 650-700 plate appearance range.
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