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Andrew Lalama identifies NFL rookies to avoid in fantasy football dynasty leagues for 2023. These are the top prospects that are overvalued or could bust in dynasty formats.
Rookies are extremely important in fantasy football. In dynasty leagues they ARE the draft and in re-draft leagues, they can be season-defining draft picks or waiver wire pick-ups. Even with all the content out there, I still think the fantasy football market generally underrates rookies in redraft fantasy football.
Drafters don't like taking players they haven't seen play yet or don't know much about, and drafters underestimate the impact of late-season contributions. Rookies are likelier to put up their best fantasy scores in the fantasy playoffs rather than at the beginning of the season.
In this article, I will lay out the case for five rookie draft avoids. By "avoid," I do not suggest fading these players completely if you play in a lot of leagues. I simply believe they are overpriced currently based on where the market is valuing them compared to other options.
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Quentin Johnston - WR, Los Angeles Chargers
The early reports are glowing. Quentin Johnston himself has proclaimed that he's already won a "starting job" and his Chargers teammates are already commenting on his talent. Even if you didn't love Johnston as a prospect (I didn't), an emphatic fade after the 21st overall draft capital and this off-season buzz would be unwise. To be clear, I will be mixing him in best ball depending on price.
However, drawing praise during the offseason program doesn't guarantee NFL success. There were real issues on film with Johnston's game, including a lack of extension at the catch-point, questionable hands, and some inefficient route-running. He's big and fast, but dominating Big 12 corners doesn't mean he'll do the same to pro defenders. For more, check out this thread:
The Chargers still have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen at WR, and Austin Ekeler commands targets as well. Joshua Palmer is still a trusted veteran, so I don't completely buy that Johnston has secured a 70+% snap share. Johnston's redraft value may depend on an injury to Williams or Allen, and although they haven't consistently stayed healthy, there are better bets in redraft leagues.
In 1-QB dynasty formats, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him at the 1.04 behind Bijan, Gibbs, and JSN, but I personally prefer Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid, De'Von Achane, and Marvin Mims.
Roschon Johnson - RB, Chicago Bears
It's smart to target the Bears' backfield this year. Chicago wants to run the ball a lot, and a mobile QB like Justin Fields should help open up running lanes. Chicago also used their first-round pick on a massive RT who could be an excellent run-blocker. I just personally prefer Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman a lot more than Roschon Johnson.
Johnson was the RB2 on his college team, which by itself is a red flag. Of course, the RB1 at Texas was Bijan Robinson, so I'm not holding that standing against Johnson. However, many fantasy analysts overrated Johnson before the draft, and when he only earned fourth-round draft capital, I expected his price to drop way more than it has. Johnson is still going 150 overall on Underdog fantasy, before D'Onta Foreman, who has proven to be a solid NFL runner.
The thesis behind Johnson as a fantasy asset is that he'll secure third downs and catch a bunch of passes. First, mobile QBs typically don't throw to RBs that much. Second, there is absolutely no guarantee he wins the third-down job. In fact, the Bears coaching staff is already raving about his ability on special teams. His film was just decent and there's nothing about his production profile that stands out. I'll be fading an unspectacular fourth-round rookie RB in a crowded backfield.
Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Didn't we do this last year? The Chiefs took a Day 2 WR, gave him an opportunity in a receiver room devoid of talent, and he failed to produce even while Patrick Mahomes had an amazing season. I'd contend that Skyy Moore was actually a better prospect than Rashee Rice.
Rice was productive at SMU but isn't the fastest athlete with 4.51 speed at just 6-1, 204. NFL.com's prospect rankings had him as the WR18. I didn't even have him in my Top 100. He's a Senior declare who was overdrafted in the real NFL Draft and is now being overdrafted in fantasy due to situation – something that has nothing to do with him as a player. The only data point in his favor is draft capital, but literally everything else makes him a sketchy bet.
And what's worse is that he's going in the top 150 picks in fantasy drafts on Underdog. That price is way too rich. I'd rather have Marvin Mims or even Jayden Reed.
Tank Dell - WR, Houston Texans
First of all, I'm a big John Metchie fan. I also don't think Robert Woods is complete dust yet. Tank Dell is a fun player, but I simply cannot recommend a 165-pound NFL player as a fantasy asset. Dell is simply too thin to be counted on to be more than a role player, and I'd rather spend draft capital on guys who can contribute during their rookie year. Dell on the below-average Texans screams redshirt.
In re-draft and best ball, Dell has been flying up the boards after showing out in preseason. I suggest you look elsewhere. In dynasty leagues, he's going 29 overall on average, and that is way too high. Take a chance with Michael Wilsonor Puka Nacua instead.
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