Lauren looks at four starting pitchers' debuts as fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups. What to expect from them as fantasy baseball sleepers and busts.
James Paxton... remember him? Yes, he still exists! The southpaw recently made his Red Sox debut nearly two years after inking a deal with the team. We'll take a closer look at his outing and what to expect from him this year. We'll also be examining Ranger Suarez's 2023 debut against the Rockies at Coors Field (which was surprisingly solid) and how the lefty can help Philadelphia's struggling starting rotation with some much-needed stability.
There's also Eury Perez, a towering, hard-throwing right-hander hailing from the Miami Marlins organization. Did I mention he's only 20 years old? And on top of all of that, Sandy Alcantara has taken the youngster under his wing. How will this impact his success moving forward?
And finally, we have Luis Ortiz, another righty who made his season debut for Pittsburgh last week. Hint: it was largely disappointing, but it's never too late to turn things around. It was his first start of the young season after all. Let's dive in.
The 34-year-old Paxton made his Red Sox debut on May 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals, his first start since April 6, 2021, as a member of the Seattle Mariners. Despite not being on the bump for a major league game in two seasons, the Canadian left-hander began his 2023 campaign in style. He struck out nine across five frames of work, allowing two runs on four hits. The Sox went on to lose the game to the struggling Cards, 8-6 (although they seem to have hit a stride as of late). What they saw from Paxton that day was encouraging.
Paxton initially signed with Boston in December 2021 as a free agent. He had just missed nearly the entire 2021 season for Seattle due to a left forearm strain. He was then shut down during 2022 Spring training for the Red Sox and underwent Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for another season.
Prior to his injury troubles, however, "The Big Maple" was a consistent piece in the Mariners' rotation. Between 2016-18 for Seattle, Paxton pitched to a 3.52 ERA alongside a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, and 10.4 K/9. He was 29-18 across 72 starts and tossed 417.1 innings -- including two complete games and a shutout.
The Mariners traded him to the New York Yankees in November 2018 in exchange for Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, and Dom Thompson-Williams. Paxton had a solid 2019 campaign for the Yanks with a 3.82 ERA in 150.2 innings of work. Unfortunately, a left flexor strain limited him to just five games during the 2020 60-game season. He eventually joined the Mariners again for a brief stint before landing with Boston.
A lot of uncertainty surrounds Paxton's season given the fact that he's made just seven starts since 2020. He allowed some hard contact in his Red Sox debut and learned to not leave a 95 mph four-seam fastball right over the plate to Nolan Arenado, which he inevitably drove over the Green Monster.
His fastball velocity peaked at 97.8 mph, one resulting in a strikeout of Paul DeJong. His off-speed stuff -- including his cutter and knuckle curve -- was able to fan Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman. His stuff looked decent, and he will likely be facing the San Diego Padres his next time out, making him well worth a stream.
As a Phillies fan, I was desperate for the 2023 debut of Ranger Suárez. He was sidelined with a left elbow strain in March that kept him off of the World Baseball Classic roster and instead on the injured list before completing a rehab assignment and returning to the team (unlike his teammate Bryce Harper, who isn't human at this point).
Although the Matt Strahm in the rotation experiment turned out better than expected, I've had just about enough of Bailey Falter. Having Strahm and Falter in the backend of the rotation simply wasn't sustainable for an entire year. Suárez has fulfilled a number of roles for Philadelphia, but really came into his own in the rotation. His calm demeanor on the mound is enough to put the average fan at ease.
The 27-year-old southpaw began his 2023 campaign on May 13 against the Rockies in Colorado. He threw 72 pitches in four innings, allowing three runs on seven hits while fanning four and walking one. Five of those seven hits were doubles, but that's the reality of making your season debut at Coors Field.
The outing put his ERA at 6.75 and ERA+ at 68, but he possesses a FIP of just 2.06. Of course, you can never judge a pitcher off of one start, especially when starting your first game of the year in such a hitter-friendly ballpark. Moreover, Suárez was excellent on the road last year, tossing 90 innings of 3.20 ERA ball.
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That's not to mention how he pitched under pressure during the 2022 postseason. In five appearances, Suárez allowed just two earned runs across 14.2 innings pitched, culminating in a 1.23 ERA. For these reasons, I'm anxious to see what the Venezuelan hurler will do this year. Suárez has a nasty pitch arsenal -- consisting of a changeup, sinker, curveball, cutter, and four-seam -- to get the job done against even the toughest of major league lineups.
The Marlins with an elite pitching prospect? Who would've guessed?! (Hopefully, the sarcasm was obvious here.) On May 12, Pérez made his MLB debut, and in turn became the first player in the majors born in 2003 (feel old, yet?). Granted, he faced the lowly Cincinnati Reds, but the 20-year-old looked sharp. He struck out seven in 4.2 frames of work and allowed just two runs on two hits (each home runs) and two walks on 88 pitches.
Eury Pérez struck out seven in his MLB debut for the @Marlins, generating 16 swings-and-misses while topping out at 99.1 mph: pic.twitter.com/2ehbCG81F9
The 6-foot-8 right-hander touched 99 mph on his fastball and mixed in a changeup, slider, and curveball as well. By all accounts, the rookie was hitting his spots, but didn't get much help from umpire Carlos Torres that night. A botched third strike call allowed the red-hot Jake Fraley to reach base on a 3-2 count, and a missed strike-two call on Tyler Stephenson led to a solo home run.
Pérez has already drawn comparisons in his mechanics to that of teammate and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. The kid has astounding potential, and Miami is excellent at developing its young arms. If Pérez hasn't already been rostered in your league, it would be wise to grab him while you can.
Another rookie. Luis Ortiz made his season debut on May 9 as the Pirates took on the Rockies in Pittsburgh. Ortiz didn't shine quite like Pérez did, only recording one strikeout and allowing five runs (two earned) on seven hits in five innings. Needless to say, Ortiz's defense didn't do him any favors, as an error by Tucupita Marcano led to three unearned runs in the fourth inning.
But his lone K shows that the 24-year-old wasn't on top of his game, as his two-plus pitches were highly touted prior to making his debut in September 2022. He even received a Tyler Glasnow comp. Likewise, in his scouting report, he was known to not allow much hard contact, but that is something he struggled with in his first start.
Uh this Luis Ortiz fellow on the Pirates is casually chucking triple-digit fireballs? pic.twitter.com/7F5TqSbYbf
Ortiz could benefit from a direct, aggressive approach as Glasnow did. As Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects notes, Ortiz "has a plus fastball, a plus breaking ball, and the seeming need for better control and a third pitch in order to stick in the majors as a starter." But maybe he doesn't need that elusive third pitch after all?
Should the Pirates elect to take the Rays' approach with Glasnow with Ortiz, perhaps the right-hander will find more success. Seeing how he fares against the Detroit Tigers on May 16 should be a good indicator of what he has to offer in the future. The flamethrower possesses tremendous upside and could be worthy of a stream. It's important to keep in mind that he tends to pitch around lefties, so he may not be the best pickup against a more lefty-heavy lineup.
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