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Eric Samulski analyzes early spring training 2022 news and rumors with some overreaction in the fantasy baseball world.
Baseball is back, spring training is here, and every tweet from every beat writer is getting scrutinized to an outrageous level. It's wacky season at its best, but instead of shying away from that, we're going to lean into it. I've found some bits of news that are interesting and also, at times, amusing, and together we can lose our minds about it. We'll look at tweets from beat writers and comments from players about their teammates and then give free rein to that part of our brain that wants to turn the amp up to 11.
But have no fear, there will be actionable information here and I will be discussing fantasy-relevant players. No, this won't be another version of Jeff Zimmerman's Mining the News and be packed full of insight gems. If Jeff's pieces are the beautifully-organized Princeton offense that took the basketball world by storm, this column is that version of basketball that's played on trampolines. It's kinda still the same, but we're just gonna say "Screw it" and get weird with it.
A.J. Puk, LHP Oakland Athletic
After these last two years of COVID, I'm not sure many of us know what putting on "good weight" means; however, the concept sounds great. Carlos Rodon also put on "good weight" last year and the added strength in his lower body helped create a strong foundation in his mechanics which led to increased health and his best season yet. I'm not saying Puk will have as good a year as Rodon, but I'm not not saying that. The left-hander has always been talented, and I think his raw stuff plays up in the bullpen. I know last year was bad for him, but I could easily see him beating out Lou Trivino and becoming the Oakland closer. He's one of my favorite late-round dart throws.
Craig Kimbrel, RP Chicago White Sox
The White Sox opened free agency months ago by signing Kendall Graveman. Then this weekend they added Joe Kelly to the back-end of a bullpen that also includes Liam Hendriks, Craig Kimbrel, Aaron Bummer, and Garrett Crochet. Given how many teams would like to have Kimbrel as their closer, he is surely a lock to be traded, no?
As someone who has so many shares of Kimbrel, all I can say is:
Maybe it's my investment in Kimbrel as a closer somewhere else talking, but I just can't see this being true. Of course LaRussa is going to say this. Kimbrel is on the team and the White Sox want teams to think they'll happily keep him in hopes of forcing a better trade offer. There's just no way I see Kimbrel remaining on the White Sox once the calendar flips to May, especially since the White Sox CBT payroll is currently $208 million, which is 5th in all of baseball, and moving Kimbrel would free up $16 million in savings. At least that's what I keep telling myself.
Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure, RHPs Pittsburgh Pirates
In his column in The Athletic, Rob Biertempfel discussed how the Pirates might proceed with highly-touted Contreras after he suffered a forearm strain last summer. Rob suggested, "Management likely will play it safe with Contreras at the beginning of this season and let him gain more experience at Triple-A." In the same article, he mentioned that Yajure, who was the other pitcher who came over with Contreras from the Yankees in the Jameson Taillon trade, could have a shot to break camp with the team: "Management is eager to see what Yajure can do. If he’s healthy in spring training, I think he begins the season in the Pirates’ rotation." As it stands right now, I'd be taking my shots on Yajure late instead of Contreras if you were just looking for locked-in innings, but Contreras likely will be the more exciting fantasy option due to his strikeout upside.
Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF Chicago White Sox
My early draft shares of Harrison are rejoicing! (unlike those of his current teammate, Kimbrel). Honestly, there couldn't be a much better landing spot for Harrison, who hit .279 with eight home runs and nine stolen bases in 138 games in 2021. He likely figures to take Leury Garcia's starting job at 2B and can back up at other positions when guys need a day off. If you took Harrison's ATC projections from before the signing and gave him the same amount of at-bats as last year, he would project to hit .266 with ten home runs, 60 runs, 56 RBI, and nine stolen bases. Given that he'll now be hitting in a loaded White Sox lineup, you could see .270 with ten home runs, 70 runs, 65 RBI, and nine stolen bases, which based on my projections, makes him the 130th ranked hitter and puts him around Frank Schwindel, Alejandro Kirk, and Oneil Cruz in dollar value.
Brett Phillips, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE! It's back, and we love it.
There's not much to react to here other than our love of this type of storyline. I fully expect Kevin Kiermaier and/or Austin Meadows to be traded, but I've already covered in an earlier article how I think that benefits Manuel Margot and, eventually, Vidal Brujan. But good for Phillips, who should be a good bet for 14+ stolen bases again if he gets 300 plate appearances as the Rays' 4th outfielder.
Gio Urshela, SS/3B, Minnesota Twins
Maybe he slept with it by his side in the offseason to remind himself how to use it. OK, I kid, I kid. But in all honesty, I'm out on Urshela. I'll have a deeper dive in an upcoming article, but a sense of it is: "Personally, I think Urshela's 2019 season was an outlier, and I know that's not a bold take. There weren't any clear meaningful changes in his swing before that season, so he may have been closer to the .284 hitter his xBA said he was. With pitchers potentially pitching him differently now and him also hitting more balls on the ground, he regressed from that .280 level to what we got in 2021. I think any adjustments should be treated as Urshela going back to being about a .270-.280 hitter. One who doesn't walk and isn't really a threat to break 20 HR again given his 51st-percentile exit velocity on balls in the air. So is a .270, 17 HR hitter with no speed but dual-position eligibility somebody you can draft? Sure, but it's not one I would draft with excitement."
UPDATE: With Urshela being traded to Minnesota, I'm especially out on him. The Twins seem likely to make a big play for Trevor Story at SS, and I think Jose Miranda kicks Urshela off of 3B by the summer.
Marcus Stroman (RHP) and Wade Miley (LHP), Chicago Cubs
Stroman and Miley and the two Cubs' starting pitchers with groundball rates over 50%, so they're the two I think will benefit the most from pitching in front of one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Yes, this is good for the whole staff, but these are the two guys I think could provide real value now. Remember that Stroman had a 3.22 ERA in 2019 and a 3.02 ERA with the Mets last year. He always gets dinged because his x-stats are not overly impressive, but he has a deep arsenal of pitches and now has a truly solid defense behind him with Simmons and Nick Madrigal (and likely Nico Hoerner in the OF). He won't help you with strikeouts, but an ERA in the low to mid 3.00 range with an elite WHIP puts him in the Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Michael Kopech range of starting pitchers for me. And, remember, Kyle Hendricks won 14 games last year in a career-worst year for a truly bad Cubs team, so don't tell me Stroman is a lock for a poor win total.
Clint Frazier, OF, Chicago Cubs
Everybody loves a BP showcase, and Frazier is certainly hitting the ball with authority here. It's been a few years, but remember that Frazier was a big-time prospect name before coming to the Yankees. It's possible that the constant jockeying in and out of the lineup impacted his performance. It's possible that he didn't perform well under the pressure of New York City. It's possible he's not as good as we once thought he was. However, at his ADP, he's not a bad shot in the dark. Plus, beards are great. Always move players up your draft board if they grew a beard.
Willians Astudillo, UTIL, Miami Marlins
I'm just happy he's back. Astudillo could easily make this Marlins team as a true super-utility player off of the bench, which could make him intriguing as a 4th catcher in draft-and-hold formats.
Nick Senzel, OF, Cincinnati Reds
One of these years Nick Senzel is going to remain healthy and be a strong fantasy asset. He had 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases in just 104 games in 2019, so there is a pretty solid 15/15 floor with a .260 average. If he can ever push for 500 plate appearances, you could be looking at a league-winning player based on where he's currently going in drafts. I had admittedly not spent much time thinking about Senzel, but he's moving up my draft boards right now as a high-upside late-round pick.
Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds
With Sonny Gray being traded and Tyler Mahle potentially following him out of town, there are rotation spots available in Cincinnati. If Greene were to win one right from Opening Day, we could be looking at the National League Rookie of the Year. I'm trying to get all the shares.
Forrest Whitley, SP, Houston Astros
Speaking of pitching prospects, did you know Whitley was still only 24-years-old? There's still plenty of time for this top prospect to right the ship. After all, he really just had one bad season. After a solid 2018, he floundered across four levels in 2019, despite maintaining solid strikeout ratios. Then the 2020 minor league season was canceled, and he got hurt. We definitely shouldn't forget about a former top prospect because of one bad year. But maybe a video of a curveball or facing a hitter would be good too.
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