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Jackson Sparks discusses Antonio Gibson as one of the top dynasty fantasy football fallers for 2023 after a disappointing 2022 NFL season.
Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson posted 1,042 total yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie in 2020, setting him up to be a valuable dynasty fantasy football asset for years to come. In year two, Gibson racked up 1,037 rushing yards, 294 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns -- another respectable campaign.
However, the presence of J.D. McKissic during his first two seasons in Washington proved to hamper his workload, especially in the receiving game. Even though McKissic went down early in the 2022 season, rookie Brian Robinson Jr. became the new thorn in Gibson's side, especially for Gibson dynasty managers. That said, he's taken a free-fall in dynasty RB rankings.
How did Gibson perform in 2022, what is his current dynasty trade value, and what can we expect from the former third-round pick from Memphis in 2023? Let's dive in.
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2022 Season In Review
In Weeks 1-3, Gibson got off to a nice start. He totaled 50 touches for 211 yards and two touchdowns as the Commanders' lead back, placing him as the RB13 in half-PPR leagues. However, his momentum would stop there.
After turning 16 touches into 60 yards and no touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4, Robinson (gunshot wound) would make his pro debut against the Tennessee Titans. Robinson immediately handled nine carries, while McKissic caught five passes. Meanwhile, Gibson got just six total touches (three carries, three receptions), totaling 39 yards. Needless to say, this was a concerning sign for things to come.
From that point forward, Gibson was given fewer than 12 carries in eight of his 10 final games and caught more than three passes just once over that stretch. He posted four RB16 or better finishes in those 10 games, but alternatively, he had RB27, RB28, RB37, RB40, RB44, and RB47 finishes.
Ultimately, he had some decent weeks fit for Best Ball action, but even then, he never provided a nuclear boom week to take teams over the edge. In traditional redraft leagues. Gibson was never a "set 'em and forget 'em" running back and had virtually no floor. Fantasy managers hoped he'd at least be a high-volume pass-catcher out of the backfield when Robinson joined the offense, but that was far from the case.
Overall in half-PPR scoring, Gibson was the RB28 in total fantasy points and the RB30 in fantasy points per game.
A significant portion of the fantasy football community believes Gibson is a solid all-purpose back, but he hasn't been able to reach his ceiling with the limited workload Washington has decided to give him.
Antonio Gibson Advanced Stats and Metrics (PlayerProfiler.com)
However, Gibson's rushing efficiency explains why the Commanders don't feel the need to rush him 15-plus times a game. As shown above, Gibson ranked outside the top 30 RBs in several rushing metrics, including true yards per carry, yards per touch, juke rate, breakaway run rate, and yards created.
However, he was a solid receiver in 2022, finishing inside the top 12 in target share, yards per receptions, yards per route run, and catch rate. He could be a nice fantasy piece if his receiving workload takes an uptick, but efficiency alone isn't enough.
Antonio Gibson Dynasty Value/Market
KeepTradeCut.com dynasty rankings, which are crowdsourced by the users who read the site, currently has Gibson as just the RB39. KeepTradeCut is a good source for examining the overall market of a player, but all dynasty leagues value players differently to some degree.
His RB39 status placed him behind Devon Achane, Alexander Mattison, Jamaal Williams, and Rachaad Penny. It's a fall from grace for the running back who was once viewed as a top-six player at his position, but the dynasty community has soured on him as his career has moved along.
That said, the RB39 spot feels like a massive overreaction and overcorrection as everyone becomes infatuated with the incoming 2023 rookie class. Gibson has posted respectable seasons in each of his first three years and his receiving skill set should always carry value. We'll dive into more of that below.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
While Gibson may not get back to his RB12 days as he produced as a rookie and sophomore, there are some reasons to be optimistic heading into his fourth season. We already dove into his receiving efficiency and upside, but Washington bringing in new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could give Gibson a fresh start with a new set of eyes on offense.
We can't simply project Washington's offense to look exactly like Kansas City's because they are far from having a Patrick Mahomes caliber signal caller, but if Gibson can get a 2022 Jerick McKinnon-like role, it could bode well for his fantasy value. Gibson is a more explosive and well-rounded back than Robinson, so the hope is Bieniemy chooses to feature him heavily in the new-look Washington offense.
It's unclear whether Sam Howell, Jacoby Brissett, or a rookie quarterback will lead the Commanders' offense next season, but hopefully, any of the three options will be a step up from Taylor Heinicke.
Ultimately, if the offense improves at all from last year, Gibson will be a steal at his current Best Ball ADP of RB44. Unless Washington adds more pieces to its running back room in the 2023 NFL Draft, it's hard to see any way Gibson finishes worse than a mid-level RB3. However, his upside could be in the high-end RB2 range in full-PPR formats.
Washington passed on just 52.81% of its plays in 2022 (23rd), while Kanas City's pass rate finished at 61.48% (eighth). The Commanders may not break into the top five in pass rate, but even a slight uptick in total pass attempts could be significant for Gibson in 2023.
At his current cost in dynasty leagues and early 2023 Best Ball drafts, he's a glaring target at running back, especially for those who prefer a zero-RB strategy.
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