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Betting on MLB games this season has already presented difficulties, including COVID-19 complications and, as recent reports suggested, a standard ball that isn't traveling as far as expected on average,
With about seven weeks left in this shortened MLB regular season, betting data is starting to look usable -- or, as usable as it can be in such a small sample. Of course, the baseball betting community needs to lean into variance and trust of what's seen through just three weeks a bit more strongly than usual.
This article will (1) compare some early MLB betting data from 2020 to the season-long results of 2019; (2) look at 2020 margins of victory; (3) determine whether baseball bettors can trust some more noteworthy statistics and records.
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2020 MLB Betting: Early Data
Through Monday's action, per Covers.com and TeamRankings.com:
Moneyline
- Home Teams: 119-110 (.520 win%) /// 2019: 1301-1155 (.530)
- Favorites: 138-89 (.601) /// 2019: 1481-985 (.601)
- Home Favorites: 85-56 (.603) /// 2019: 929-610 (.604)
- Home Underdogs: 33-53 (.384) /// 2019: 371-545 (.405)
The pace of success for a homefield advantage has held up in picking a straight-up winner in 2020 -- it's arguably even more important given how the pandemic has geographically limited the schedule.
Run Line/Against the Spread
- Home Teams: 110-119 (.480) /// 2019: 1118-1338 (.455)
- Favorites: 105-124 (.459) /// 2019: 1110-1356 (.450)
- Home Favorites: 64-78 (.451) /// 2019: 653-887 (.424)
- Home Underdogs: 46-41 (.529) /// 2019: 465-451 (.508)
Favorites have failed to cover less than half the time in three of these four splits.
Home underdogs, however, remain a solid bet to convert when you take the runs given to them -- even if the dog situation doesn't translate to an outright victory, as noted in the Moneyline section.
I've noticed run lines have been soft in general across these first few weeks, but that may change as the books continue adjusting as sample sizes increase -- though perhaps the randomness will continue to serve as an advantage for sharp bettors who can read tea leaves and time their wagers in favorable situations.
Over/Unders
194-244-20 (44.3% Over) /// 2019: 2336-2360-236 (49.7% Over)
As noted by the drop of 5.4 percentage points, concerns over how far the ball is flying so far seem to be manifesting. It's summer, the time when the ball should be soaring in most locales. The universal designated hitter is no match for saddening drag coefficients.
Don't shy away from Overs that offer overwhelmingly plus odds, but pick your spots.
2020 MLB Team Betting Trends
Best Margin of Victory (average runs), TeamRankings.com
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 2.4
- Colorado Rockies: 1.7
- Minnesota Twins: 1.5
- Oakland Athletics: 1.3
- Cleveland Indians: 1.3
- Atlanta Braves: 1.2
Assuming we believe in the Rockies' pitching success so far, all teams on this list have postseason credentials in this expanded 16-team format for 2020.
I worry about the sustainability for Minnesota and Atlanta to remain this high on the list. They each lost a key piece of their lineup: the Twins, Josh Donaldson (calf), and the Braves, Ozzie Albies (wrist).
Worst Margin of Victory (average runs), TeamRankings.com
- Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.9
- Seattle Mariners: -1.7
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5
- San Francisco Giants: -1.4
- New York Mets: -1.3
- Texas Rangers: -1.3
This looks about right; none of these pitching staffs give me much optimism for their fortunes to turn around. Keep picking on favorable odds against these clubs.
MLB Team Betting Trend to Buy
Los Angeles Angels
10-7 in Over/Unders (58.8%, 3rd)
Having already weathered a Mike Trout paternity leave absence and Shohei Ohtani's pitching woes, the Halos are on an optimistic track. Anthony Rendon (.400 OBP, two homers in 42 at-bats) should improve his power. Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney are flashing ace potential, and Ty Buttrey could become the answer in a volatile closer picture.
Plus, an Astros team without Justin Verlander (forearm) and Roberto Osuna (elbow) is more easily defeated.
WATCH: Tampa Bay Rays
If Blake Snell can stretch out a bit and the platoons get going, Tampa Bay could improve on its average margin of victory.
MLB Team Betting Trend to Fade
Kansas City Royals
11-6 against the Run Line (64.7%, T-3rd)
KC has kept things close just enough to pay off for those looking to double-up on favorable spreads.
showing an improved bullpen and surprising rotation to go along with their often-great offense. Still, despite the legit improvements among relief pitchers, led by new closer Trevor Rosenthal and the resurgent Greg Holland, I don't trust that to last -- nor do I believe in the early SP success or the streaky offensive start by Maikel Franco and the other lower-card members of the lineup.
Things should even out more closely toward a below-.500 record as this final month-plus rolls away.
ALSO FADE: Detroit Tigers
They're overachieving at the outset, especially in the rotation members not named Matthew Boyd.
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