August 30, 2017

Taylor Maxston profiles Baltimore Ravens running back (RB) Terrance West as a fantasy football sleeper and draft value for 2017 fantasy football based on ADP.

Running back sleepers can be especially volatile as far as predicting how successful they can be. Drafting a lesser known fantasy commodity within the first ten rounds of your draft requires that the runner have both a relatively safe floor and higher ceiling so as to be worth the investment. One of the ideal running back sleepers who fits that definition perfectly is Baltimore Ravens’ running back Terrance West.

It seems people are finally warming up to the Ravens’ offense as a place to draft useful fantasy assets, but West continues to get little love.  Many seem quick to forget about the success he had last season, defaulting to the assumption that his job is one that is up for grabs. He is currently going in the ninth round in 10-team standard mock drafts on fantasyfootballcalculator.com directly alongside offseason acquisition Danny Woodhead.

So why exactly should Terrance West be one of your go-to-guys in 2017 fantasy drafts? Let’s take a look.

The RB Herd Has Thinned

The way the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield is shaping up in August is quite different from conceptions early in training camp. It had originally been thought that the team would be deploying a “three-headed monster” at the position for 2017 with Terrance West, Danny Woodhead, and Kenneth Dixon all receiving snaps in some form or another. That all changed with Dixon undergoing meniscus surgery that will require him to miss nearly all of the upcoming season.

With a split between West and Woodhead in the cards, it becomes clear how to make an evaluation of their situational usage. West will likely occupy the early-down and goal-line work that he performed exceptionally well in last season while Woodhead will operate as a third-down/spell-back specialist out of the backfield. This primarily influences when West should be drafted across different scoring formats. With him likely to out-touch Woodhead in most games, he carries more value in standard formats and earns a seventh/eighth round grade there. In PPR, his stock takes a bit of a hit to more of the late eighth round, though he is by no means an incompetent pass-catcher.

West Has a Safer Range of Outcomes than Other Sleepers

With lead-back duties virtually on lock, what should we expect of Terrance West in 2017? To answer that question, we have to take a look back to his emergence last season.

In 2016, West led the Ravens in rushing attempts (193), yards (774) and touchdowns (five). He also had the team’s longest single run (41-yards) of the season and led the team’s running backs in receiving with 34 catches for 236 yards and one touchdown. All of those career-highs resulted in him topping the 1,000 total yard mark, making it clear how dynamic a player he is when given the opportunity. With a more consistent workload that will come from the Ravens’ offense handing him the reins instead of splitting carries with Dixon, it is all but guaranteed that he will top those numbers.

The worst case scenario here seems to have West primarily getting the first down role with Danny Woodhead contributing as the complementary weapon. The team could also give Woodhead a few more rush attempts than initially expected, but I would expect the team to keep him in a situational role to preserve his health. After all, he’s been dealing with a significant hamstring issue that has caused him to miss a lot of practice time as of late. Should Woodhead miss time, West will undoubtedly be an RB2 in a high-powered offense for those games.

Final Thoughts

I’m a big believer in Terrance West’s ability to prosper in 2017 and I would absolutely be willing to pay a ninth round price to get him. He has too much upside to be ignored and showed last season why he is worthy of an increased workload, ultimately making him an excellent option in fantasy football. Consider pairing him up with Doug Martin, who is suspended for four games and currently being drafted in the fifth round, if you plan on spacing out your running back picks. At the end of the day, believe in West’s talent and let him win you fantasy weeks.

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