WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 3 (2025)

September 20, 2025

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 3 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 3 of the 2025 fantasy football season. Don't overreact to one week of fantasy football, but we'll have a decent sample of data after four or more weeks. We saw one-week samples flip in the opposite direction from Weeks 1 to 2 based on the matchup and variance. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way. With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

Don’t panic if a receiver struggled in Week 1 or 2. One quick note is that the Week 2 data shows up on the chart, but we still haven’t downgraded or adjusted too much after two weeks. If a player is talented or near-elite, they didn’t have a massive downgrade. However, we also need to validate that if a player showed a high target-earning skill like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we need to pay attention. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups, especially since team defenses tend to shift their coverages based on the opposing offenses.

How to Use The WR/CB Chart

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

One interesting note from the first two weeks involves the Giants and Rams being the only two teams with two receivers garnering a 25 percent target per route rate. Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 3 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Cleveland Browns.

The visual below shows offenses from the Dallas Cowboys to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The visual below shows offenses from the Los Angeles Rams to the New York Jets.

The visual below shows the WR/CB projected matchups for the Philadelphia Eagles to the Washington Commanders.

Best Projected Week 3 WR/CB Matchups

Worst Projected Week 3 WR/CB Matchups

Week 3 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Rome Odunze vs. Trevon Diggs

There were some concerns in Odunze’s profile in Year 1, but there appears to be a connection between him and Caleb Williams to begin the season. Odunze leads the team with a 33.3 percent first-read target share, with DJ Moore (19 percent) and Olamide Zaccheaus (21.4 percent) trailing him. That’s a good sign through two weeks for Odunze.

The Cowboys have been using zone coverage at the second-highest rate (92.3 percent) behind the Raiders. It’s a two-game sample, but that’s significantly more zone coverage in 2025 than 2024 (66.2 percent). Opposing offenses have been shredding their zone defense, allowing the second-most fantasy points per dropback, though most of it probably came in Week 2 against the Giants.

Odunze averages 1.86 yards per route run against zone coverages, similar to Moore at 1.85 yards per route through two weeks. They also have an identical targets per route rate against zone coverage, with Zaccheaus seeming to garner a better target rate (27 percent). After seeing Wan'Dale Robinson pop off against the Cowboys, maybe this matchup bodes better for Zaccheaus, though no one will be starting him.

Trevon Diggs allows the eighth-highest fantasy points per route run and 15th-highest yards per route. He has been the lowest-graded cornerback on the team among the players who played on 30 coverage snaps. Diggs allows the highest quarterback rating among all qualified cornerbacks, suggesting opposing passers should target the receivers lined up against him more often.

Romeo Doubs vs. Greg Newsome II

With Jayden Reed out for 6-8 weeks with a fractured collarbone and a Jones fracture in his left foot, some might be elevating Dontayvion Wicks and Matthew Golden. Wicks might see a slight uptick in a big slot role, but Doubs continues to be a reliable option for the Packers. Doubs runs the highest percentage of routes (71.9 percent), with a respectable 22 percent target rate and 2.39 yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

The Browns deploy the highest percentage of man coverage, where Doubs posts a solid 22 percent target rate and 2.06 yards per route run. Doubs trails Reed (2.13), Wicks (3.13), Tucker Kraft (2.67), and Golden (0.29) in yards per route against man coverage among pass-catchers that ran over 10 routes. There has been some discussion on separation scores, but Doubs boasts an above-average Average Separation Score against man and zone coverages.

That's notable because Doubs had above-average separation scores against man coverage in 2024, meaning 2025's performance is likely not a fluke. Doubs projects to face Greg Newsome II, who allows a mediocre 0.23 fantasy points per route, yet 1.38 yards per route run. Furthermore, the Browns use single-high looks at the fourth-highest rate while allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback in 2025.

Doubs has a 28 percent target rate and 3.60 yards per route run against single-high looks in 2025. He trails Luke Musgrave in target rate (33 percent) and yards per route (5.33) against single high. Doubs remains Jordan Love's first read, leading the team with a 26.1 percent first-read target share against single-high coverage. That aligns with Doubs' usage against single high in 2024, leading the team in first-read target rate (27.5 percent).

The game script might be an issue since the Packers are 7.5-point favorites against the Browns in Week 3. The Packers have been more willing to pass in neutral game scripts, ranking 13th with a 60 percent pass rate through two weeks. That's 13 percentage points above their neutral script pass rate (47 percent) in 2024, when they ranked last. Doubs might be boring, but he'll be somewhat stable since Love and Packers enjoy attacking the Browns and their single-high looks.

Josh Downs vs. Roger McCreary

After concerns around Tyler Warren eating into the workload for Downs, the Colts slot receiver posted an identical expected fantasy points (12.4) compared to Warren (12.9) in Week 2. However, we could argue that Daniel Jones and the Colts offense attempted to avoid Pat Surtain II. That led to them attacking the slot and middle areas of the field, where Warren and Downs operate.

Downs leads the team in target rate, being a per-route monster, though Michael Pittman Jr. will still earn targets. That's evident by Downs running a route on 54.9 percent of the team's dropbacks, trailing Pittman (81.7 percent), Warren (77.5 percent), and Alec Pierce (83.1 percent).

The Titans have been middle of the pack in their coverage, using man at the 17th-highest rate, compared to the 14th-highest percentage of zone coverage. Specifically, the Titans deployed the 12th most of Cover 2. They allowed the 11th-highest fantasy points per dropback against man coverage in 2025.

Last season, Downs had the second-highest target rate (25 percent) and yards per route (2.49) against man coverage, trailing Adonai Mitchell. Interestingly, Pittman and Pierce have been better against man coverage than Downs in the two-game sample. However, the focal point of the Colts passing offense should be via Downs and Pittman against man coverage, though Warren will feast against Cover 2 and zone coverages.

Roger McCreary has been allowing 0.33 fantasy points per route and 1.82 yards per route run. For context, the league average fantasy points per route sits at 0.21, with a yards per route just under 1.00 (0.95). He has been playing the most snaps in the slot on the Titans, allowing the third-highest yards per coverage snap in the slot among cornerbacks, who allowed five receptions in 2025. Downs projects as a WR3/4 with some upside in PPR leagues.

Week 3 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cedric Tillman vs. Carrington Valentine

The Packers have been lauded for having one of the best defenses in the NFL. From a coverage standpoint, they allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback in man and the 13th fewest against zone coverage in 2025. Their entire secondary grades out as the second best in the league, per PFF.

Through two weeks, Jerry Jeudy leads the team in first-read target share (28.3 percent), with Harold Fannin Jr. (20.8 percent) and Tillman (18.9 percent) trailing Jeudy. The Browns have the fourth-highest neutral script pass rate through two weeks, meaning they're leaning on the pass game while trailing from behind.

Joe Flacco can boost up the pass-catchers as we've seen in the past, so don't overreact to the Browns benching him late in the game during Week 2 for Dillon Gabriel. The Packers deploy zone coverage at the fifth-highest percentage, specifically Cover 2 (No. 3) and Cover 3 (No. 12).

Jeudy and David Njoku were the top targets against zone coverage, with Jeudy leading the team in yards per route run in 2024. However, Tillman was better against man coverage, evidenced by a 23 percent target rate and 2.32 yards per route, so this matchup doesn't bode well for him. We've seen more of the same in 2025.

Tillman trails Fannin in target rate against zone coverage in 2025, but Tillman averages under 1.00 yards per route. Specifically against Cover 2 and 3, which the Packers defense utilizes often, Tillman hasn't fared well, with a 17 percent target rate and 1.03 yards per route. We haven't even discussed how well Carrington Valentine has been in coverage, giving up 0.13 fantasy points per route (No. 13) and 0.26 yards per route (No. 8). Fantasy managers will be better off benching Tillman until they face a defense that runs a high rate of man coverage.

A.J. Brown vs. Darious Williams

The Eagles passing offense should be buy-low candidates. However, there are concerns with their offense without Kellen Moore. The Eagles have been passing the ball 37 percent of the time in neutral scripts, ranking 31st, ahead of the Jets. Besides the volume being nonexistent, the Eagles passing offense ranks 20th in expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB).

The visual below shows the team tendencies that had a checkdown rate that was five percentage points higher in 2025.

They've been using motion at the eighth-highest rate, but utilizing play action at the 19th-highest percentage in 2025. Furthermore, the Eagles have been checking down to their pass-catchers at the fourth-highest rate while having two high-end to elite receivers on their squad.

The underlying metrics for Brown don't look great through a two-game sample, with a 17 percent target rate and 0.66 yards per route run. Jalen Hurts continues to target Brown at a high rate on his first read (30.8 percent), tying him with DeVonta Smith.

They haven't been making tons of explosive pass attempts since they're checking it down, leading to Brown having a career-low average target depth, over four points below his career norm (11.8).

This matchup would initially be a bit more worrisome if Ahkello Witherspoon were healthy. Darious Williams should fill in, and he performed well in 2024, allowing 0.22 fantasy points per route and 1.11 yards per route run.

The scary part involves the Rams deploying the highest percentage of single-high coverage (70.7 percent). That's significantly more than in 2024 (55.3 percent), when they ranked 13th in single-high looks.

Brown smashed single-high coverage in 2024, with a whopping 35 percent target rate and 3.94 yards per route run. Smith was also dominant against single-high looks, boasting a 25 percent target rate and 2.60 yards per route run.

In the small 2025 sample, Brown averages a 6 percent target rate with a 0.50 yards per route run against single-high looks. That's a product of the Eagles offense being run-heavy and checking down without taking downfield shots, which would be how to attempt single-high safety looks.

Regression should favor Brown, but it's a matter of when, not if. It's hard to sit Brown in most lineup contexts, but it might be another dud performance unless the Eagles attack single-high looks like they used to with Brown and Smith in Week 3.

Chris Olave vs. Josh Jobe

Most of the underlying metrics indicate Olave should have a smash performance soon. Olave boasts a 29 percent target rate, 28.1 percent first-read target share, and 20.4 expected fantasy points. He hasn't performed up to expectations, given his usage, with 1.42 yards per route and 11.9 fantasy points per game.

The Seahawks defense uses two-high looks at the second-highest rate in 2025, while allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Olave was solid against two-high coverage in 2024, evidenced by a 23 percent target rate, 2.06 yards per route, and a 23.1 percent first-read target share. He performed similarly to Rashid Shaheed, yet Shaheed had a massive downfield role, with a 43.5 percent air yards share.

The usage against two-high looks has been there for Olave, with a 29 percent target rate and 43.5 percent air yards share, yet a 0.95 yards per route in 2025. Olave projects to face Josh Jobe, who has been the Seahawks' best cornerback, allowing the second-lowest fantasy points per route and third-lowest yards per route through two weeks.

Jobe forced a 22.2 percent incompletion rate while allowing a zero quarterback rating in 2025. Like Brown, fantasy managers will continue starting Olave, but there might be more hope for the Saints receiver. A potential negative game script could be in Olave's favor since the Saints are seven-point underdogs in Week 3.

If Tariq Woolen needs to cover Olave more often, Olave could feast because Woolen has been struggling to begin the season after being one of the better coverage cornerbacks in the league. Woolen allows a league-worst passer rating among qualified cornerbacks, though most of it might be skewed from giving a couple of deep plays to Ricky Pearsall in Week 1.

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