RADIO
We're starting to hit our groove a bit here with seven of the top-10 defenses correct for Week 3. The more games we get under our belt, the more we begin to see legitimate trends emerge, and the more we need to re-evaluate our expectations for certain teams that we had coming into the season. We've also had to deal with Pro Football Reference getting rid of two of my favorite stats (Pressure Rate and QB Hurry Rate), so the DOWN formula may need to be tweaked over the week. Which is why, as always, you should make sure you bookmark the link to the rankings GoogleSheet, so you can see the updated rankings as close to kickoff as possible.
In the spirit of re-evaluating our expectations, I want to take a brief second to talk about the Bengals and Chiefs. Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is not the same player he once was, but the Bengals are 4th in the NFL with 10 sacks through three games and are only 5th with 4.5 yards allowed per play. The Vikings and Steelers are both above-average offenses, so it might be time to start taking this Bengals defense seriously as a potential streaming option. On the other hand, the Chiefs look lost. In the past, I've loved using them because the high-scoring offense forces opposing teams to play fast and aggressive, which has led to great games from the Chiefs defense. I'm not saying it can't happen this year, but I am saying that I'm going to need to see it before I throw the Chiefs in my lineup in 2021.
A final reminder, which I get to in more detail in the next paragraph is to please not raise a bad defense too high based on a good matchup. Bad defenses will find a way to not score fantasy points, regardless of who the opponent is.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 4 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, recommended FAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 4 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: DOWN (Defenses of Weekly Note) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success. You can see the full leaderboard and formula explanation here. It's important to clarify that the DOWN rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings and probably won't stabilize until a few weeks into the season so don't overreact to them after the first few weeks. DOWN is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their DOWN ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses
The Bills are the #2 defense in DOWN rankings after three weeks on the back of being 7th in the league in sacks, 3rd in yards allowed per play, 3rd in the number of drives that end in an offensive score, and 10th in drives that end in an offensive turnover. This shouldn't be a surprise since the Bills have been a strong defensive unit in the past and spent their offseason either bringing back their best talent or using high draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. However, it also hasn't hurt that Pittsburgh, Miami, and Washington all look like average offensive teams at best. The good news for Buffalo is that Davis Mills and the Houston Texans will come to town on Sunday. Playing in Buffalo is going to be quite the test for the 3rd-round rookie, and I'm just not sure he has the weapons to help him out. The Texans offensive line has been playing better this season, but I expect the Bills to dial up a lot of pressure on the young quarterback, which usually means good things for fantasy points.
I try not to get sucked into narratives, but it's hard to avoid loving the idea of Tom Brady coming back to New England on Sunday night. I think the Bucs absolutely destroy the Patriots and not all of that is connected to the narrative or the fact that the Bucs just got owned by the Rams. I genuinely don't think the Patriots have a very good offense. They're 27th in yards per play and 18th in passing yards about to take on an offense that will absolutely put up points and a defense that is 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt. If Mac Jones and the Patriots can't move the ball through the air, they are not going to score any points in this game. Oh, and James White, the team's second-leading receiver, is almost surely out after being carted off the field with a hip injury. I'm all in on the Bucs this week and it doesn't have anything to do with the phenomenal advertisement for the game, featuring an impeccably chosen Adele song.
One of the teams that have capitalized on the Patriots not being a great offense is the Saints, who finished 2nd in DST ranks last week based on FantasyPros scoring. After a subpar game against the Panthers, New Orleans showed what they're capable of by holding the Patriots to 13 points, registering three sacks, and forcing three turnovers. It doesn't get much harder for them this week against the Giants. With Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both leaving Sunday's game with hamstring injuries, the Giants could be really short-handed this week. Saquon Barkley looked his old self, but the Saints are 3rd in the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt at a paltry 2.8 yards. It's going to be really hard for Barkley to carry the Giants offense against this defensive front, which means more pressure on the shoulders of Daniel Jones and his beat-up receiving corps. That's a recipe for the Saints to get some fantasy goodness.
Tier 2 Defenses
My Confidence Rankings should tell you everything you need to know about the gap between tier one and tier two, but we're doing it! We spoke above about how the Bengals' defense is more legitimate than I had initially thought, so we're just jumping into the pool headfirst and throwing caution to the wind. This Jaguars offense has not been good, and Trevor Lawrence has been making some really curious decisions. They are worst in the league with nine turnovers through three games and are 25th in the league in gaining only 5.1 yards per play. I don't think Urban Meyer has figured out what he's doing yet at the NFL level, and I expect the Bengals to be able to capitalize on that. This is a team that is likely on waivers in most leagues, and I expect them to be a top-5 defense this week.
While I like many defenses in this tier, they all fill me with a little bit of doubt. That includes the Titans, who aren't really that great of a fantasy defense. They currently rank 18th in DOWN rankings, so they're not "bad," but they're certainly not good, and I'm a little worried about having them this high. What scares me is that the Titans are last in the NFL with only one turnover in three games. They're 24th in the NFL in allowing 45.5% of drives to end in an opponent score, and they're 26th in yards allowed per play. However, the one area where they're okay is in terms of pressure, accruing seven sacks through three games. Now, while that isn't a number to get too excited about, it's certainly one we can take into account considering the opponent for the week. The Jets have allowed an absurd 15 sacks through three games, including five last week to the Broncos in a game where the Jets earned only 162 yards of total offense. 162 TOTAL YARDS!!! Now, again, the Broncos are a much better defense than the Titans so we can't just transfer that over. I expect Zach Wilson and Corey Davis to have more success against this Titans secondary, which has yet to prove that it can make big plays. Clearly, the Jets are a bad offense, which is why Tennessee is in the top-10 despite ranking as the 26th unit in my DOWN rankings, but let's not go crazy and move the Titans that much higher.
This is a gut call, and it may blow up in my face, but I refuse to believe the Washington defense is this bad. They're 30th in my own rankings so everything is telling me that they are, but I just saw too much good football from the same defense last year. Games against the Chargers and Bills offense were naturally going to be hard, but it's the 29 points allowed to the Giants that really has me worried. However, I'm gonna go back to the well again because I just don't think this Falcons offense is good. Calvin Ridley is a beast, but Matt Ryan looks like he might be near the end of the line and Mike Davis is not a starting running back. The Falcons are 28th in yards per play and I just believe in Kendall Fuller, Montez Sweat, Chase Young, and the talent in this Washington defense. This is the week it clicks (I hope).
I expect that Dolphins-Colts game to be ugly, so certainly I like the Colts defense, right? Eh, not really. Just like the Titans, this ranking makes me a little nervous, but that's just another indication of how weird Week 4 is set out to be. The Colts are not as strong of a fantasy unit as the Dolphins are because they don't get a ton of pressure (5 sacks in three games) and are actually 28th in yards allowed per play. However, they also have caused six turnovers in three games, and Jacoby Brissett really didn't look great on Sunday. I know the Dolphins found a way to push that game into overtime, but it was certainly not pretty and almost seemed like they stumbled into the opportunity. I expect the Colts to get a few more turnovers on Sunday and finish as a borderline top-5 defense.
We're going back-to-back here with the Dolphins, who I actually expect to lose this game but, luckily, that doesn't preclude them from having a good fantasy day. The Dolphins are tied for 3rd in the NFL in turnovers and are 9th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover, which is good when you face a hobbled Carson Wentz. The Indianapolis Colts also just saw their best lineman, Quentin Nelson, get carted off the field on Sunday, which means the Dolphins can get even more pressure on the immobile Wentz. I expect this to be an ugly game in which both offenses struggle to get too much going, which means the Dolphins' ability to get turnovers and maybe a sack or two will make it easy for them to perform as a top-10 defense this week.
Cleveland just absolutely dominated Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears, so I want to have them so much higher than this, but I also need to be realistic. They had only three sacks in the first two games and have only caused two turnovers on the season. This is a defense with tremendous talent that hasn't quite played up to potential. Now, I know I said the same about Washington and have them ranked higher, but this comes down to Minnesota being a strong offense. They've allowed only five sacks in three games and have only turned the ball over once all season. Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen are a dynamic receiver duo and Kirk Cousins has looked great to start the year. I think the Browns will be their toughest test, but this is not an offense that beats itself, which means they are not going to give Cleveland many chances to score fantasy points.
Tier 3 Defenses
After generating no pass rush in Week 1 and very little pressure in Week 2, the Packers' defense woke up a bit on Sunday night football. They sacked Jimmy Garoppolo four times, forced two turnovers, and held the 49ers under 300 yards of total offense. I still don't know that I can trust them to get consistent pressure on the quarterback but that won't matter on Sunday since the Steelers' whole offense is built around hiding Big Ben's lack of mobility by throwing quick-release passes. However, with Diontae Johnson likely still out and Jaire Alexander able to cover Chase Claypool on the outside, I think Ben will struggle to find too many open options on Sunday. He's not the quarterback he once was and that has really taken some of the team out of this Steelers offense. In a game where they will likely need to score to keep up with Aaron Rodgers, I expect the Packers defense to put together another strong outing.
We already talked about what Denver did against the Jets, but it comes with the obvious caveat that it's the Jets. However, the Ravens haven't looked that great themselves this season. Despite being 2-1, the Ravens are 27th in offensive turnovers and 22nd in sacks allowed. Their running game is not nearly as explosive with injuries to JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, despite Lamar Jackson being incredibly gifted. The Broncos are also 10th in yards allowed per rush and 1st in yards allowed per pass, which means it's going to be hard for Baltimore to move the ball much on Sunday. After scoring only 19 points against the Lions while allowing four sacks and a turnover, I expect another tough game for the Ravens offense against this strong Broncos defense.
It's time to talk about the fact that the Cowboys defense might actually be pretty good. The addition of Micah Parsons has been huge in the middle of their defense and Trevon Diggs seems to have taken his game to another level in his second season. They haven't gotten a ton of pressure, but they play aggressive and tackle well, which has led to turnovers and prevented big gains in games aside from the opener against Tampa. In fact, with games against the Bucs, Chargers, and Eagles, there aren't many harder schedules to start the season, and I think the defense has begun to respond. Now, the Cowboys will face a Panthers team without Christian McCaffrey. Yes, D.J. Moore has looked good this year, but the lack of rushing threat will put a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Sam Darnold, who has still shown some happy feet in the pocket. I expect this to be a let down game for the 3-0 Panthers, and I think the Cowboys defense is certainly playable.
The Ravens, Chargers, Rams, and Panthers are all defenses I have some level of interest in but just can't push higher due to matchup. The Rams are still one of my favorite defenses for the rest of the season, but they get another tough matchup this week against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Despite beating the Bucs pretty soundly last week, the Rams didn't finish as a top-10 defense, and I think we find ourselves in the same boat today. The Chargers had a tremendous performance against the Chiefs and also looked good against the Cowboys the week before, so perhaps I'm a bit too low on them, but I think this Raiders offense is strong, so it's not a great matchup. Lastly, the Ravens have the talent to be one of the better fantasy defenses, but they just haven't played great football so far. The Broncos are not an explosive offense, but they control the ball and Teddy Bridgewater doesn't take unnecessary chances, which means they're a tough team for opposing defenses to score too many points against.
The Panthers are the number one ranked defense by my rankings and I have them this low. I know that's crazy, but it also just tells you what I think of the Cowboys' offense. Without Christian McCaffrey, I don't expect the Panthers to have as much success moving the ball against a strong Cowboys defense, which means the Cowboys may not need to run up the score on offense. When Dallas had a led in Week 2 against the Chargers, they chose to slow the game down, use the clock and run the ball, so that's exactly what I expect them to do against the Panthers this Sunday. That will limit the Panthers' ability to generate sacks and turnovers, and I think the Cowboys will hit on some big plays, which will keep the Panthers from being a useable unit this week, despite the fact that I'm buying in long-term.
Tier 4 Defenses
I think the Raiders are a feisty unit, and I like the Cardinals long-term, but these aren't good matchups, and I simply can't push them higher than this.
The Giants' defense is pretty solid, and the Saints' offense is uninspiring, so I get wanting to have the Giants higher. However, I don't expect the Giants to put up a big offensive game, which means New Orleans won't need to put too much on Jameis Winston's shoulders. They should be able to lean heavily on Alvin Kamara, which will make it harder for the Giants to create turnovers, and the Saints have allowed only seven sacks across three games, so there's not too much upside there for the Giants, who finished as the 16th-ranked defense against a similarly less-than-exciting Falcons offense.
The Lions showed up to play against the Ravens, which got my attention, especially considering they sacked Lamar Jackson four times and now face a Bears team that just allowed nine sacks to the Browns. However, this Lions defense is not nearly as talented as the Browns unit, and has some legitimate injury concerns in the secondary. I expect the Bears to make adjustments after the offensive line was a travesty this week, but it's also still a bad offensive line, so I think the Lions will be able to get some pressure on Justin Fields to force bad throws from the rookie, who may be a little gunshy after last week.
Tier 5 Defenses
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