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Week 4 Consistency Reports - All Positions


Three weeks may still seem too early to be assessing consistency but if you look at the tables below you can see that already the best fantasy options are beginning to rise to the top. We can already see just how inconsistent tight ends and to some extent running backs are compared to wide receivers and quarterbacks. You may also see some surprising names high on the lists but you need to cross reference the COR numbers with the players ceiling. For example starting a player like Ito Smith who has a high COR rating but a ceiling of just six fantasy points does not make sense. This is especially prevalent at the tight end position, where there are some low scoring options high up in the COR rankings.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following weeks waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of Minnesota Vikingss or Los Angeles Rams players below.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 92.44 30.81 7.12 23.69 37.93 0.23 164.17
2 Ryan Fitzpatrick 97.4 32.47 8.84 23.63 41.3 0.27 151.76
3 Russell Wilson 52.74 17.58 2.53 15.05 20.11 0.14 139.88
4 Cam Newton 75.44 25.15 6.06 19.08 31.21 0.24 129.42
5 Joe Flacco 56.86 18.95 3.32 15.63 22.27 0.18 127.15
6 Philip Rivers 66.74 22.25 4.98 17.27 27.23 0.22 121.66
7 Aaron Rodgers 60.88 20.29 4.46 15.83 24.76 0.22 112.57
8 Drew Brees 87.72 29.24 11.46 17.78 40.7 0.39 103.82
9 Alex Smith 49.48 16.49 3.27 13.22 19.76 0.2 99.66
10 Jared Goff 59.14 19.71 5.08 14.63 24.79 0.26 96.19
11 Deshaun Watson 60.84 20.28 6.37 13.91 26.65 0.31 84.89
12 Ryan Tannehill 58.88 19.63 6.3 13.33 25.92 0.32 80.82
13 Kirk Cousins 65.9 21.97 8.84 13.13 30.81 0.4 76.55
14 Ben Roethlisberger 74 24.67 12 12.66 36.67 0.49 75.36
15 Andy Dalton 57.2 19.07 6.64 12.43 25.7 0.35 73.84
16 Matt Ryan 75.68 25.23 14.45 10.77 39.68 0.57 69.26
17 Andrew Luck 44.68 14.89 4.15 10.75 19.04 0.28 68.37
18 Jimmy Garoppolo 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
19 Matthew Stafford 52.2 17.4 9.32 8.08 26.72 0.54 49.88
20 Tom Brady 47.16 15.72 7.25 8.47 22.97 0.46 49.81
21 Mitchell Trubisky 38.04 12.68 4.48 8.2 17.16 0.35 48.61
22 Eli Manning 42.5 14.17 6.42 7.74 20.59 0.45 45.41
23 Blake Bortles 54.72 18.24 12.61 5.63 30.85 0.69 44.63
24 Dak Prescott 32.42 10.81 3.55 7.26 14.35 0.33 43.75
25 Derek Carr 35.34 11.78 4.91 6.87 16.69 0.42 40.04
26 Case Keenum 39.32 13.11 6.84 6.26 19.95 0.52 38.21
27 Josh Allen 46.3 15.43 11.29 4.14 26.72 0.73 36.53
28 Tyrod Taylor 40.98 13.66 10.33 3.33 23.99 0.76 31.72

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. After three weeks worth of data the COR values are truly starting to reflect what we have seen with our eyes this season. Patrick Mahomes has been other worldly with 13 touchdowns but he will face his biggest test so far on the road at Denver Monday night. If he can be good there then we could have a legitimately stunning talent on our hands. We also have Ryan Fitzpatrick who had a wobble in the second quarter last Monday but pulled it out in the second half. Again this week will be a tough test but while he is starting for the Buccaneers you have to keep rolling with him.

Very interesting to see Russell Wilson in third place. It feels like Wilson has been disappointing but what he provides is solid production. Joe Flacco in fifth is another name interestingly high and now he gets to go against a very poor Steelers defense on Sunday night.

Lower down on the chart we surprisingly find Tom Brady who has really struggled this year. With Josh Gordon closer to being healthy and Julian Edelman back next week it will be interesting to see how he fairs over the next few weeks. Matthew Stafford's numbers look bad because of the Week 1 performance but he always has the possibility to put up decent points totals.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Ito Smith 12.9 6.45 0.07 6.38 6.52 0.01 594.8
2 Todd Gurley 78.6 26.2 2.33 23.87 28.53 0.09 321.32
3 James White 45.1 15.03 0.81 14.22 15.85 0.05 292.52
4 Saquon Barkley 68.3 22.77 2 20.77 24.77 0.09 281.82
5 Ezekiel Elliott 54.1 18.03 1.5 16.54 19.53 0.08 235.16
6 Javorius Allen 47.2 15.73 1.72 14.01 17.46 0.11 159.29
7 Marshawn Lynch 45.3 15.1 2.36 12.74 17.46 0.16 111.54
8 Melvin Gordon 72.6 24.2 7.2 17 31.4 0.3 105.51
9 Alvin Kamara 91 30.33 12.99 17.34 43.33 0.43 101.14
10 Christian McCaffrey 64.8 21.6 6.2 15.4 27.8 0.29 96.82
11 Malcolm Brown 13.1 4.37 0.21 4.16 4.57 0.05 95.97
12 Dalvin Cook 27.5 13.75 2.47 11.28 16.22 0.18 90.14
13 Tevin Coleman 40.7 13.57 2.61 10.96 16.18 0.19 84.08
14 Jordan Howard 41.6 13.87 3.53 10.34 17.39 0.25 68.38
15 James Conner 68.2 22.73 11.76 10.97 34.49 0.52 66.68
16 TJ Yeldon 40 13.33 3.69 9.64 17.03 0.28 61.46
17 Sony Michel 11 5.5 0.57 4.93 6.07 0.1 58.97
18 Carlos Hyde 49.8 16.6 6.71 9.89 23.31 0.4 57.66
19 Adrian Peterson 56.6 18.87 9.42 9.45 28.28 0.5 56.67
20 Lamar Miller 37 12.33 3.57 8.76 15.9 0.29 54.94
21 Alex Collins 37.3 12.43 3.77 8.66 16.2 0.3 53.45
22 Austin Ekeler 46.5 15.5 7.14 8.36 22.64 0.46 49.13
23 Nyheim Hines 29 9.67 2.37 7.3 12.04 0.25 49.07
24 Jay Ajayi 27.9 13.95 6.01 7.94 19.96 0.43 46.33
25 Joe Mixon 35.6 17.8 11.46 6.34 29.26 0.64 45.46
26 Stevan Ridley 3.5 1.75 0.07 1.68 1.82 0.04 45.06
27 Isaiah Crowell 47.2 15.73 8.66 7.08 24.39 0.55 44.33
28 Kerryon Johnson 31.3 10.43 3.31 7.13 13.74 0.32 43.34
29 David Johnson 39.9 13.3 6.29 7.01 19.59 0.47 41.44
30 Royce Freeman 28.7 9.57 2.93 6.64 12.49 0.31 40.84
31 Matt Breida 45.7 15.23 9.41 5.82 24.64 0.62 39.89
32 Chris Thompson 49.8 16.6 12.1 4.5 28.7 0.73 39.37
33 Kareem Hunt 36.3 12.1 6.27 5.83 18.37 0.52 35.43
34 Doug Martin 11.4 3.8 0.46 3.34 4.26 0.12 35.31
35 Theo Riddick 28.8 9.6 3.68 5.92 13.28 0.38 34.67
36 Derrick Henry 15.4 5.13 0.9 4.24 6.03 0.17 34.53
37 Bilal Powell 33.8 11.27 6.7 4.57 17.96 0.59 30.22
38 Wayne Gallman 7.6 2.53 0.25 2.28 2.78 0.1 28.03
39 Alfred Morris 26.5 8.83 4.56 4.27 13.4 0.52 25.93
40 Jordan Wilkins 21.5 7.17 2.76 4.4 9.93 0.39 25.74
41 Dion Lewis 34.3 11.43 9.19 2.24 20.62 0.8 25.66
42 Jamaal Williams 21.3 7.1 2.75 4.35 9.85 0.39 25.43
43 Chris Carson 33.7 11.23 9 2.23 20.24 0.8 25.25
44 Phillip Lindsay 32.3 10.77 8.18 2.58 18.95 0.76 24.93
45 Corey Clement 32.6 10.87 8.46 2.41 19.32 0.78 24.83
46 Kenyan Drake 29.6 9.87 7 2.86 16.87 0.71 23.77
47 Wendell Smallwood 22.1 11.05 9.97 1.08 21.02 0.9 23.3
48 Kyle Juszczyk 22.7 7.57 3.84 3.72 11.41 0.51 22.47
49 Tarik Cohen 20.4 6.8 3.16 3.64 9.96 0.46 21.43
50 Giovani Bernard 29.7 9.9 8.97 0.93 18.87 0.91 20.82

James White remains an interesting name near the top of this list. It is clear Brady trusts him more than the other backs so we should see plenty of him in the passing game. Javorius Allen in sixth is a little misleading as he has been extremely touchdown dependent. Saying that, he is seeing the majority of the rushes in the red zone so far. Most of the rest of the top-15 are names you would expect to find apart from Ito Smith and Malcolm Brown but their average points total makes them semi-irrelevant in this conversation.

Isaiah Crowell and Kerryon Johnson just inside the top-30 will continue to be frustrating while they are competing for touches in that backfield. If either of those could get a leg-up on their situation they could become a valuable weekly starter. David Johnson at 29 is extremely frustrating as the Cardinals are using him in such a bizarre way. You have to keep starting him but unless they commit to him more going forward he is going to be a frustrating option.

Lower on the list we have some other guys who are stuck in competitions and touch-shares and are frustrating. Dion Lewis, Derrick Henry, Chris Carson and Bilal Powell are prime examples of guys that are extremely hard to trust until we see whether they start getting more of the carries. The final name I wanted to mention is Giovani Bernard who appears 50th. His complete lack of Week 1 performance hurts his consistency ranking through three week. However, playing in Atlanta makes him a must-start this week.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Mike Evans 77.7 25.9 1.71 24.19 27.61 0.07 418.46
2 Davante Adams 58.4 19.47 1.14 18.33 20.6 0.06 352.68
3 Kenny Golladay 56.6 18.87 1.84 17.02 20.71 0.1 211.81
4 Will Fuller 46.4 23.2 2.97 20.23 26.17 0.13 204.43
5 Tyler Lockett 50.1 16.7 1.67 15.03 18.37 0.1 183.67
6 Michael Thomas 95.8 31.93 8.59 23.34 40.52 0.27 150.63
7 Danny Amendola 21 7 0.35 6.65 7.35 0.05 148.45
8 Michael Crabtree 36.5 12.17 1.37 10.8 13.53 0.11 120.61
9 Chris Godwin 48.1 16.03 2.7 13.34 18.73 0.17 111.42
10 Adam Thielen 71.8 23.93 7.47 16.47 31.4 0.31 100.65
11 Geronimo Allison 45.9 15.3 2.76 12.54 18.06 0.18 100.05
12 Cooper Kupp 46.9 15.63 2.93 12.7 18.56 0.19 99.05
13 Antonio Brown 57 19 4.64 14.36 23.64 0.24 96.87
14 Juju Smith-Schuster 68.6 22.87 7.37 15.5 30.23 0.32 93.85
15 Golden Tate 52.6 17.53 4.15 13.39 21.68 0.24 91.65
16 John Brown 46.3 15.43 3.26 12.17 18.7 0.21 88.44
17 Jarvis Landry 47.8 15.93 3.51 12.42 19.44 0.22 88.25
18 Brandin Cooks 53.2 17.73 4.55 13.18 22.29 0.26 86.78
19 Taylor Gabriel 25.6 8.53 0.96 7.57 9.49 0.11 84.31
20 DeAndre Hopkins 52.7 17.57 4.71 12.85 22.28 0.27 83.06
21 Emmanuel Sanders 61.4 20.47 8.17 12.3 28.64 0.4 71.75
22 AJ Green 61.9 20.63 9.56 11.07 30.2 0.46 65.15
23 Quincy Enunwa 44.2 14.73 4.48 10.25 19.22 0.3 63.15
24 Marvin Jones 41.7 13.9 3.97 9.93 17.87 0.29 62.58
25 TY Hilton 46.9 15.63 5.65 9.98 21.28 0.36 58.89
26 Odell Beckham Jr 51 17 6.92 10.08 23.92 0.41 58.75
27 Julio Jones 54 18 8.81 9.19 26.81 0.49 54.79
28 DeSean Jackson 61.2 20.4 12.64 7.76 33.04 0.62 53.33
29 Tyreek Hill 63.9 21.3 14.39 6.91 35.69 0.68 52.82
30 Ted Ginn Jr 40 13.33 4.51 8.83 17.84 0.34 52.77
31 Mike Williams 47.9 15.97 7.15 8.82 23.11 0.45 51.65
32 Tyler Boyd 52.4 17.47 10.53 6.94 28 0.6 46.44
33 Devin Funchess 38.5 12.83 5.06 7.77 17.9 0.39 45.35
34 Albert Wilson 35.7 11.9 4.52 7.38 16.42 0.38 43.25
35 Robert Woods 55.1 18.37 13.71 4.66 32.07 0.75 42.98
36 Tyrell Williams 22.2 7.4 1.64 5.76 9.04 0.22 40.85
37 Paul Richardson 28.1 9.37 2.82 6.55 12.19 0.3 40.5
38 Martavis Bryant 12.4 6.2 1.13 5.07 7.33 0.18 40.18
39 Keenan Allen 44.9 14.97 8.92 6.05 23.89 0.6 40.08
40 Stefon Diggs 53.7 17.9 14.48 3.42 32.38 0.81 40.03
41 Sammy Watkins 42.7 14.23 7.92 6.32 22.15 0.56 39.83
42 Willie Snead 32.2 10.73 4.01 6.72 14.74 0.37 39.46
43 Allen Robinson 36.4 12.13 5.44 6.69 17.58 0.45 39.18
44 Nelson Agholor 42.3 14.1 8.36 5.74 22.46 0.59 37.87
45 Demaryius Thomas 36.4 12.13 5.8 6.34 17.93 0.48 37.54
46 Calvin Ridley 57.2 19.07 20.35 -1.29 39.42 1.07 36.93
47 Keelan Cole 42 14 9.18 4.82 23.18 0.66 35.34
48 Kenny Stills 45.4 15.13 11.45 3.68 26.58 0.76 35.13
49 Corey Davis 28.1 9.37 3.54 5.83 12.91 0.38 34.16
50 Ryan Grant 31.4 10.47 4.79 5.68 15.25 0.46 33.36

Danny Amendola is probably the only odd name out in the top-15. Interesting names include Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin who are both now legit fantasy receivers. Will Fuller is always a start when he is active and Tyler Lockett could see some inconsistent weeks coming with Doug Baldwin returning from injury.

There is a lot of quality in 20-30 range. DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. are hurt by the ineffectiveness of their teams offensive lines. T.Y. Hilton is having to reinvent himself a little as Andrew Luck appears unable to throw the ball downfield. Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill and Marvin Jones are all in teams which have a ton of offensive weapons, meaning their production is going to be hit-or-miss on a week-to-week basis.

Five names stand out in the 40s. Sammy Watkins is going to have tough weeks with all the weapons in Kansas City. Allen Robinson is suffering due to Mitchell Trubisky's struggles. Demaryius Thomas has suffered from some drops, especially in Week 2 and is becoming a major concern for me. Calvin Ridley has had three absolutely extreme weeks, from a zero-point performance in Week 1 through to a three touchdown performance in Week 3. Right now he is a must-start but beware the potential for a sudden down week. Corey Davis has not been helped by the constant changing of quarterback in Tennessee but with Delanie Walker out the Titans are likely to need to rely on their round one pick from last season.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Jordan Reed 36.8 12.27 2.25 10.02 14.52 0.18 79.14
2 Logan Paulsen 4.1 2.05 0.07 1.98 2.12 0.03 61.48
3 Kyle Rudolph 38.1 12.7 4.06 8.64 16.76 0.32 52.39
4 Eric Ebron 35 11.67 3.4 8.27 15.07 0.29 51.69
5 Zach Ertz 42.5 14.17 5.54 8.63 19.71 0.39 50.39
6 OJ Howard 39.2 13.07 5.6 7.47 18.67 0.43 43.55
7 Tyler Conklin 3.3 1.65 0.07 1.58 1.72 0.04 40.15
8 Tyler Higbee 12.8 6.4 1.27 5.13 7.67 0.2 38.58
9 Mark Andrews 24.7 8.23 2.32 5.92 10.55 0.28 37.48
10 Travis Kelce 50.9 16.97 14.31 2.66 31.27 0.84 37.09
11 David Njoku 15.9 5.3 0.89 4.41 6.19 0.17 36.9
12 Jared Cook 44 14.67 10.69 3.98 25.36 0.73 34.79
13 Jeff Heuerman 8.2 2.73 0.25 2.48 2.98 0.09 32.42
14 George Kittle 31.1 10.37 5.37 5 15.74 0.52 30.38
15 Vance McDonald 26.8 13.4 11.03 2.37 24.43 0.82 29.68
16 Ben Watson 25.4 8.47 3.6 4.87 12.07 0.43 28.38
17 Rob Gronkowski 37.9 12.63 11.32 1.31 23.95 0.9 26.73
18 Will Dissly 34.1 11.37 9.19 2.18 20.55 0.81 25.43
19 Jesse James 35.5 11.83 11.81 0.03 23.64 1 23.69
20 Tyler Eifert 25.1 8.37 4.63 3.74 12.99 0.55 23.5
21 Ricky Seals-Jones 21.1 7.03 3.03 4 10.06 0.43 23.37
22 Jimmy Graham 27.8 9.27 6.35 2.91 15.62 0.69 22.78
23 Geoff Swaim 14.5 7.25 3.46 3.79 10.71 0.48 22.42
24 Austin Hooper 27.6 9.2 6.67 2.53 15.87 0.72 21.89
25 Jonnu Smith 4.1 2.05 0.21 1.84 2.26 0.1 21.86
26 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 21.6 7.2 3.57 3.63 10.77 0.5 21.73
27 Trey Burton 24 8 4.92 3.08 12.92 0.62 21
28 Jack Doyle 17 8.5 6.36 2.14 14.86 0.75 19.85
29 Dallas Goedert 21.7 10.85 13.36 -2.51 24.21 1.23 19.66
30 Jordan Akins 10 3.33 0.68 2.65 4.01 0.2 19.66

This is always the position that drives people nuts from a consistency point of view and the COR ranking being so low compared to the other positions reflects that. Jordan Reed looks to finally be healthy and you have to ride him while he is on the field. O.J. Howard appears to have asserted himself in that Buccaneers offense and I expect him to be a big part again this week.

Rob Gronkowski is having a tough year but he is not getting much help. That offense is such a mess that defenses can double team Gronkowski without fear of being beaten elsewhere. Once Edelman and Gordon come into this offense then Gronkowski should have more success.

Jimmy Graham is as frustrating as we feared he would be in the Packers offense. They seem unable to work out how best to use the tight end in Green Bay and Graham is becoming a potential drop candidate. Trey Burton is also struggling due to his quarterback but I still think that offense can improve and I would stick it out with him.

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