🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Week 12 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

As mentioned on Twitter, today’s article is going to focus on a new statistic I created to incorporate the important aspects of a player’s weekly production and consistency. After talking with a follower on Twitter (@seth_cordry), he pointed me in the direction of using Coefficient of Variation (I’ll get there) as a way to “power rank” players by a single number for consistency. I was able to take it one step further, and devised my creatively named Consistency Rating.

Now, bear with me as I dive into some mathematical terms to explain what the Coefficient of Variation (CV) is. CV is a very simple formula: standard deviation divided by the average. The output is typically a decimal or percentage between zero and one (unless the standard deviation is greater than the average). What is this used for? CV was created as a way to compare different data sets with different averages and standard deviations in a more apples-to-apples fashion. It is a big deal in the finance industry with stocks and investments with regards to return-on-investment and building a stock portfolio. In the world of stocks, the smaller the CV, the better the stock is to invest in relative to ROI. For fantasy football, the lower the CV, the better the player is for risk-reward as a weekly play.

However, when using just CV as a power ranking tool for players, I found one flaw. Player’s who are consistently bad (i.e. low averages and low standard deviations) were being scored higher than players with high averages but also higher standard deviations (usually how elite fantasy players score). For example, CV loved Martellus Bennett and scored him higher than other tight ends like Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Evan Engram. To remedy this, I created my Consistency Rating (COR). Another easy formula, COR takes a player’s ceiling and divides it by that player’s CV. The higher the number, the better than player is for risk-reward and gives weight to players with high ceilings. If a player is consistently putting up big numbers, COR ranks them at the top of the list, and vice versa. Enough talking though, let me show you for players heading into Week 12.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by COR from largest to smallest. At the top of list are some familiar names, starting with Carson Wentz. Wentz has been consistently elite all season, and scored very well from CV and tops the list in COR. If you have Wentz, he is a set-and-forget every week. He is also the only qualified player in fantasy with a COR above 100.

Now, one place where people might question COR is by ranking Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Matthew Stafford above the current QB1 in Russell Wilson. To those people, I say COR is highly based on consistency, which is measured by standard deviation. So, despite having lower averages and floors than Wilson, those four QBs score higher because each of their standard deviations is half of Wilson’s, making them more consistent plays on a weekly basis than Wilson. However, I cannot sit here as a fantasy analyst and advocate sitting Wilson for any of those QBs, given how Wilson has been playing (if anyone has that situation).

 

Running Backs

One back I would like to highlight especially on this list, and one I have already highlighted in a previous article, is Christian McCaffrey. I highlighted CMC previously due to his insane consistency on a weekly basis. A few weeks later, McCaffrey still tops the list for consistency based on standard deviation (6th among RBs in this list), but also now based on COR. His ceiling may not be as high as the players around him, but on a weekly basis, CMC blows them all out of the water. Thanks to his work through the air, McCaffrey is a PPR machine and is a high floor option as a RB2, with touchdown upside.

On the opposite side, one surprising player COR does not like very well is Jordan Howard, but rightfully so. If you own Howard, I am sure you understand the frustration that comes with playing him weekly, at least at the start of the year. One week he goes off for nearly 30 points, the next he fails to hit double digits. Because of that, Howard has the second highest CV among these 25 running backs. Despite his ceiling of almost 22 points, Howard can be seen as an almost risky play some weeks given his knack for disappearing and his high inconsistency. He is still a low-end RB1 given his ability to breakout, but should not be heavily relied upon to be a fantasy team’s main source of points from the running back position on a weekly basis.

 

Wide Receivers

Like McCaffrey, another name on this list has been not only consistent, but also elite on a weekly basis. Jarvis Landry has taken his game to the next level this year, finding the end zone more times through 11 weeks this season than any other season in his career. Perhaps it is Jay Cutler, or maybe the Dolphins have begun utilizing him more in the red zone. My biggest qualm with Landry during the offseason was his production after Jay Ajayi took control of that offense. However, even with Ajayi, Landry was producing this season and now that Ajayi is gone, his production has only increased. In PPR leagues, Landry is a borderline WR1 just on receptions alone. Now that he is finding the end zone, Landry has vaulted into an elite asset at the position on a weekly basis. Without scoring, Landry’s floor is still in the double digits as well. This is why he is ranked as the second highest receiver in terms of COR and why he is a weekly plug-and-play as a WR1.

 

Tight Ends

I remain adamant that Ben Watson is a highly undervalued fantasy tight end this year. Despite being owned in only 14% of ESPN leagues, Watson is currently the TE16, ahead of players like Hunter Henry, Julius Thomas, and Eric Ebron, all with higher ownership percentages than Watson. On top of that, Watson is ninth among tight ends in COR, making him a consistent tight end on a weekly basis. In fact, in four of his last five games, Watson has scored eight or more points per game. Extending that to the entire season, Watson has scored eight or more points in seven of his nine games (he didn’t play Week 1). If anyone is concerned about his production with Danny Woodhead back, don’t be. Watson was still productive with Javorius Allen, who averaged almost five receptions per game. If you are still looking for a solid replacement at the tight end position, or need a weekly streamer, Ben Watson is your guy and is almost guaranteed to be available in every redraft league.

 

Flex

Normally, I give two tables for flex plays, one sorted by weekly floors, the other by ceilings. This week, I have one giant table of forty flex players sorted by COR. You will notice Danny Woodhead has an insanely high COR over 170 (he does not a qualified player, so Wentz is still the only qualified above 100), but his two games played this year have been almost identical for fantasy. I included him in the table this week because I believe he is a solid flex play moving forward, especially in PPR leagues.

 

More Week 12 Lineup Prep




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Jacobs

Expected to Play in Week 15
Viktor Arvidsson

Not Expected to Play Sunday
Elias Pettersson

Unavailable Sunday
Jonas Brodin

to Miss Second Consecutive Game Sunday
Emil Lilleberg

Exits Early Saturday
Will Smith

Hurt in Saturday's Victory
Pavel Dorofeyev

Exits Win With Injury
Jalen Suggs

Injured on Saturday Night, Leaves Arena in a Wheelchair
Daniel Jones

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on Reserve/Left Squad List, Out for the Season
Christian McCaffrey

Expected to Play in Week 15
Haydn Fleury

Cleared to Play
Simon Nemec

to Miss "Some Time"
Jake Evans

Back for Canadiens Saturday
Ilya Lyubushkin

Returns to Stars Lineup Saturday
Roope Hintz

Good to Go Saturday
Charlie Lindgren

Activated From Injured Reserve
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Available Against Oilers
William Nylander

a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers' "Optimism Has Run Out" on Brandon Aiyuk
Philip Rivers

Will Start on Sunday Against the Seahawks
Jorge Polanco

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Mets
De'Von Achane

Expected to Play Monday Night
Rome Odunze

Bears Optimistic Rome Odunze Will Play in Week 15
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Return to South Carolina in 2026
Cason Wallace

Off Injury Report Saturday
Keyonte George

Erupts for Career-High 39 Points Against Memphis
Bones Hyland

Exits Early With Knee Contusion
Isaiah Joe

To Miss Fourth Straight Game
Isaiah Hartenstein

Removed From Injury Report
Austin Reaves

To Be Re-Evaluated In One Week With Calf Strain
Logan O'Connor

Still Not Ready for Season Debut
Lukas Dostal

Activated From Injured Reserve
NJ

Arseni Gritsyuk Ruled Out for Weekend's Action
Connor Bedard

Ruled Out for Saturday
Zeev Buium

Canucks Acquire Zeev Buium From Wild
Marco Rossi

Moves to Vancouver
Quinn Hughes

Traded to WIld
Joel Embiid

Available Against Indiana
Ja Morant

Back on Friday Night
Tre Jones

is Returning on Friday
Coby White

Cleared for Action Versus Hornets
Jake Ferguson

Listed as Questionable for Week 15
Tre Johnson

to be Limited in Return on Friday
Geno Smith

Officially Ruled Out for Week 15
Kenny Pickett

to Start in Week 15 Against Eagles
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Available on Friday
Tyrese Maxey

Under the Weather on Friday
Josh Jacobs

Officially Questionable to Face the Broncos
Victor Wembanyama

Expected to Return on Saturday
Anthony Edwards

Sidelined on Friday Evening
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Questionable for Week 15
CFB

Washington State Expected to Hire Kirby Moore as Next Head Coach
CFB

Kyle Whittingham Stepping Down as Utah Head Coach
T.J. Watt

Officially Ruled Out for Monday Night
Manel Kape

Set For UFC Vegas 112 Main Event
Davante Adams

to be Questionable, Expected to Play on Sunday
Brandon Royval

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 112
Rome Odunze

Questionable for Sunday
Kevin Vallejos

Set For His Third UFC Fight
Alvin Kamara

Ruled Out for Sunday
Giga Chikadze

In Dire Need Of Victory
Cesar Almeida

Set To Welcome Cezary Oleksiejczuk To The UFC
Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Jayden Daniels

Not Cleared for Contact
T.J. Watt

Undergoes Surgery for Collapsed Lung
Maikel Garcia

Royals Agree on Five-Year Extension
Melquizael Costa

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Looks to Win Second Consecutive Fights
Marcus Buchecha

Looks To Bounce Back
Kennedy Nzechukwu

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 112
King Green

Returns At UFC Vegas 112
Lance Gibson jr

Lance Gibson Jr. Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 112 Main Card
Jake Ferguson

on Track to Play in Week 15
CFB

Sherrone Moore Charged with Home Invasion, Among Other Charges
Jayden Daniels

Cleared for Contact
Daniel Gafford

Still Unlikely to Play Friday
Khris Middleton

Misses Second Straight Game
Collin Sexton

Sidelined Again Versus Bulls
Coby White

On Track To Suit Up Versus Charlotte
Tre Jones

Expected To Play Friday Vs. Hornets
CFB

Freddie Kitchens Fired from North Carolina Coaching Staff
CFB

Bryce Underwood Could Leave Michigan Without Buyout
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Padres Not Considering Trading Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Engaged in "Serious Talks" Around Trading Tarik Skubal at the Winter Meetings
CFB

Chris Brazzell II Declaring for NFL Draft
CFB

Fernando Mendoza Named AP College Football Player of the Year
Raisel Iglesias

to Remain the Braves Closer
Robert Suarez

Agrees on Three-Year Deal With Braves
CFB

Sherrone Moore Remains in Police Custody
CFB

Joe Klanderman Joining Baylor Coaching Staff
CFB

Kentucky Hiring Jay Bateman as Next Defensive Coordinator
Si Woo Kim

Closes 2025 With Strong Finish Among Putting Woes
Akshay Bhatia

Looks to Rebound in 2026 After Down Year Off the Tee
Brian Harman

2025 Season a Step Back Despite Spring Win
Sam Burns

' Elite Putting Headlines a Solid 2025 Season
Sepp Straka

Ends Stellar 2025 Campaign on a High Note
Robert MacIntyre

Closes Out a Steady 2025 Campaign
CFB

Chip Kelly Interviews for Georgia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
CFB

Louisville Receiver Chris Bell has a Torn ACL
Min Woo Lee

Breaks Through to Win in Texas This Year
PGA

Alex Noren Wins Twice on European Tour This Year
Wyndham Clark

has Up-and-Down 2025 Golf Season
CFB

Michigan Fires Head Coach Sherrone Moore
Corey Conners

Comes Close to Winning Again in Very Good 2025
Justin Rose

Turns Back the Clock in 2025
CFB

Jim Knowles Expected to be Hired as Tennessee's Defensive Coordinator
Harris English

Enjoys Solid Finish at Hero World Challenge
CFB

Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles Not Being Retained at Penn State
CFB

Indiana's Stephen Daley Done for Season After Post-Game Injury
Pete Alonso

Orioles Finalizing Five-Year Deal
Kyle Finnegan

Tigers, Kyle Finnegan Agree on Two-Year Deal
Bo Bichette

Red Sox Out on Bo Bichette For Now
Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2027 Season
Michael King

the Mets' Top Rotation Target?
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Could Move Back to Leadoff Spot
CFB

Florida, Wisconsin Among Suitors for QB Transfer Kenny Minchey
CFB

Bryan Harsin, Justin Wilcox Candidates for Washington State Head Coach Job?
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Agrees to Deal With the Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber

Returning to Phillies on Five-Year Deal
CFB

Ole Miss Hiring John David Baker as Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Ty Howle the Top Target for Virginia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
Shohei Ohtani

to be Used More as Traditional Starting Pitcher Next Year
Yordan Alvarez

to Become Full-Time DH in 2026?
Mason Miller

Padres Plan to Keep Mason Miller in the Bullpen
Ranger Suárez

Orioles Interested in Signing Ranger Suarez
Anthony Volpe

Yankees Don't Expect Anthony Volpe to be Ready in April
Gerrit Cole

Targeting a Return in May/June
Rory McIlroy

Ends 2025 as the Year's Most Unburdened Player
Aaron Rai

Needs to Figure Out Putting Woes This Offseason
Jordan Spieth

Plays Better on Paper in 2025 Than Results Show
PGA

Chris Gotterup Needs to Find Better Touch and Consistency This Offseason
Hideki Matsuyama

Ends 2025 Season With a Bookend Victory
Scottie Scheffler

Comes Up Just Shy of Hero World Challenge Victory
Merab Dvalishvili

Drops A Decision At UFC 323
Petr Yan

Reclaims Bantamweight Title
Alexandre Pantoja

Era Ends With Gruesome Injury
Joshua Van

Becomes Second-Youngest UFC Champion
Brandon Moreno

Suffers His First TKO Loss
Brandon Moreno

Tatsuro Taira Becomes First Fighter To Finish Brandon Moreno
Henry Cejudo

Payton Talbott Retires Henry Cejudo
Henry Cejudo

Retires After UFC 323 Loss
Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov Vs. Jan Blachowicz Ends In A Majority Draw

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP