Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Week 12 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

As mentioned on Twitter, today’s article is going to focus on a new statistic I created to incorporate the important aspects of a player’s weekly production and consistency. After talking with a follower on Twitter (@seth_cordry), he pointed me in the direction of using Coefficient of Variation (I’ll get there) as a way to “power rank” players by a single number for consistency. I was able to take it one step further, and devised my creatively named Consistency Rating.

Now, bear with me as I dive into some mathematical terms to explain what the Coefficient of Variation (CV) is. CV is a very simple formula: standard deviation divided by the average. The output is typically a decimal or percentage between zero and one (unless the standard deviation is greater than the average). What is this used for? CV was created as a way to compare different data sets with different averages and standard deviations in a more apples-to-apples fashion. It is a big deal in the finance industry with stocks and investments with regards to return-on-investment and building a stock portfolio. In the world of stocks, the smaller the CV, the better the stock is to invest in relative to ROI. For fantasy football, the lower the CV, the better the player is for risk-reward as a weekly play.

However, when using just CV as a power ranking tool for players, I found one flaw. Player’s who are consistently bad (i.e. low averages and low standard deviations) were being scored higher than players with high averages but also higher standard deviations (usually how elite fantasy players score). For example, CV loved Martellus Bennett and scored him higher than other tight ends like Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Evan Engram. To remedy this, I created my Consistency Rating (COR). Another easy formula, COR takes a player’s ceiling and divides it by that player’s CV. The higher the number, the better than player is for risk-reward and gives weight to players with high ceilings. If a player is consistently putting up big numbers, COR ranks them at the top of the list, and vice versa. Enough talking though, let me show you for players heading into Week 12.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!



The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by COR from largest to smallest. At the top of list are some familiar names, starting with Carson Wentz. Wentz has been consistently elite all season, and scored very well from CV and tops the list in COR. If you have Wentz, he is a set-and-forget every week. He is also the only qualified player in fantasy with a COR above 100.

Now, one place where people might question COR is by ranking Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Matthew Stafford above the current QB1 in Russell Wilson. To those people, I say COR is highly based on consistency, which is measured by standard deviation. So, despite having lower averages and floors than Wilson, those four QBs score higher because each of their standard deviations is half of Wilson’s, making them more consistent plays on a weekly basis than Wilson. However, I cannot sit here as a fantasy analyst and advocate sitting Wilson for any of those QBs, given how Wilson has been playing (if anyone has that situation).


Running Backs

One back I would like to highlight especially on this list, and one I have already highlighted in a previous article, is Christian McCaffrey. I highlighted CMC previously due to his insane consistency on a weekly basis. A few weeks later, McCaffrey still tops the list for consistency based on standard deviation (6th among RBs in this list), but also now based on COR. His ceiling may not be as high as the players around him, but on a weekly basis, CMC blows them all out of the water. Thanks to his work through the air, McCaffrey is a PPR machine and is a high floor option as a RB2, with touchdown upside.

On the opposite side, one surprising player COR does not like very well is Jordan Howard, but rightfully so. If you own Howard, I am sure you understand the frustration that comes with playing him weekly, at least at the start of the year. One week he goes off for nearly 30 points, the next he fails to hit double digits. Because of that, Howard has the second highest CV among these 25 running backs. Despite his ceiling of almost 22 points, Howard can be seen as an almost risky play some weeks given his knack for disappearing and his high inconsistency. He is still a low-end RB1 given his ability to breakout, but should not be heavily relied upon to be a fantasy team’s main source of points from the running back position on a weekly basis.


Wide Receivers

Like McCaffrey, another name on this list has been not only consistent, but also elite on a weekly basis. Jarvis Landry has taken his game to the next level this year, finding the end zone more times through 11 weeks this season than any other season in his career. Perhaps it is Jay Cutler, or maybe the Dolphins have begun utilizing him more in the red zone. My biggest qualm with Landry during the offseason was his production after Jay Ajayi took control of that offense. However, even with Ajayi, Landry was producing this season and now that Ajayi is gone, his production has only increased. In PPR leagues, Landry is a borderline WR1 just on receptions alone. Now that he is finding the end zone, Landry has vaulted into an elite asset at the position on a weekly basis. Without scoring, Landry’s floor is still in the double digits as well. This is why he is ranked as the second highest receiver in terms of COR and why he is a weekly plug-and-play as a WR1.


Tight Ends

I remain adamant that Ben Watson is a highly undervalued fantasy tight end this year. Despite being owned in only 14% of ESPN leagues, Watson is currently the TE16, ahead of players like Hunter Henry, Julius Thomas, and Eric Ebron, all with higher ownership percentages than Watson. On top of that, Watson is ninth among tight ends in COR, making him a consistent tight end on a weekly basis. In fact, in four of his last five games, Watson has scored eight or more points per game. Extending that to the entire season, Watson has scored eight or more points in seven of his nine games (he didn’t play Week 1). If anyone is concerned about his production with Danny Woodhead back, don’t be. Watson was still productive with Javorius Allen, who averaged almost five receptions per game. If you are still looking for a solid replacement at the tight end position, or need a weekly streamer, Ben Watson is your guy and is almost guaranteed to be available in every redraft league.



Normally, I give two tables for flex plays, one sorted by weekly floors, the other by ceilings. This week, I have one giant table of forty flex players sorted by COR. You will notice Danny Woodhead has an insanely high COR over 170 (he does not a qualified player, so Wentz is still the only qualified above 100), but his two games played this year have been almost identical for fantasy. I included him in the table this week because I believe he is a solid flex play moving forward, especially in PPR leagues.


More Week 12 Lineup Prep

More Recent Articles


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 15

In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were the high-end options that came through with solid performances, both finishing in the top-five even though they had fairly tough matchups. A.J. Brown finished as the No. 1 receiver on the week, scoring two touchdowns off of just seven targets, while Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders... Read More

Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 15

Welcome to our Week 15 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More

Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

The trend of fresh faces being among the tops of the fantasy scoring leaderboard continued in Week 14. Across the skill positions, we saw players that took advantage of plus matchups and excelled for fantasy owners during the first week of the playoffs. Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock came out of nowhere to finish inside... Read More

Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 James Conner is expected to make his return this week. Devante Parker (concussion) is good to go for... Read More

Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More

Week 15 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are in full swing in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning... Read More

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 15

Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More

Week 15 Panic Room: Outlooks for Slumping and Injured Players

As you set your Week 15 fantasy football playoff lineups, there may be some players who make you feel very uncomfortable about starting them. Based on recent lackluster performances, injuries, or just an intangible bad vibe, it's a struggle to insert them into your lineup in a do-or-die week. But you may also nervous be... Read More

Drew Lock: Is He Ready For Fantasy Football Playoff Consideration?

There is much excitement in Denver after Drew Lock put on an air display at Houston last week. In just his second NFL start, the rookie threw for 309 yards and three TD passes, all in the first half, as the Broncos stunned the AFC South leaders, 38-24. The final score doesn’t indicate what type... Read More

Survive and Advance: The King's Guide to Fantasy Football Playoff Sanity and Success

As the playoffs progress in the NFL every season, media coverage ramps up. By the time we get to Super Bowl week, it's become a full-blown circus. There are microphones and recorders being shoved in players' faces at every waking moment, and the questions never stop. As the fantasy football playoffs move ahead, there is... Read More

Red Zone Usage Risers and Fallers - Week 15

We are at a crucial point in the season. Hopefully, your team is still alive, but there is always an opportunity to get your team in shape before that final push! As fantasy owners, we know that not all touches are equal. A touch in the red zone has an increased chance of scoring a... Read More

QB vs Pass Rush Matchups To Watch - Week 15

Week 15 is here, and the fantasy playoffs are rolling. Some head into the fantasy semifinals as big favorites but others are scrapping to keep their season alive. Real teams start at quarterback, and the position is pretty important for fantasy as well. Quarterbacks have changed the game for fantasy football this year with guys... Read More

Inside the Tent - Week 15 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More

NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system.   NFL Matchup Ratings - Weekly Lineup Projections FLEX RB WR TE QB DEF K ** click column headers to sort table Player... Read More