X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Week 12 Consistency Report - Floors and Ceilings

As mentioned on Twitter, today’s article is going to focus on a new statistic I created to incorporate the important aspects of a player’s weekly production and consistency. After talking with a follower on Twitter (@seth_cordry), he pointed me in the direction of using Coefficient of Variation (I’ll get there) as a way to “power rank” players by a single number for consistency. I was able to take it one step further, and devised my creatively named Consistency Rating.

Now, bear with me as I dive into some mathematical terms to explain what the Coefficient of Variation (CV) is. CV is a very simple formula: standard deviation divided by the average. The output is typically a decimal or percentage between zero and one (unless the standard deviation is greater than the average). What is this used for? CV was created as a way to compare different data sets with different averages and standard deviations in a more apples-to-apples fashion. It is a big deal in the finance industry with stocks and investments with regards to return-on-investment and building a stock portfolio. In the world of stocks, the smaller the CV, the better the stock is to invest in relative to ROI. For fantasy football, the lower the CV, the better the player is for risk-reward as a weekly play.

However, when using just CV as a power ranking tool for players, I found one flaw. Player’s who are consistently bad (i.e. low averages and low standard deviations) were being scored higher than players with high averages but also higher standard deviations (usually how elite fantasy players score). For example, CV loved Martellus Bennett and scored him higher than other tight ends like Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Evan Engram. To remedy this, I created my Consistency Rating (COR). Another easy formula, COR takes a player’s ceiling and divides it by that player’s CV. The higher the number, the better than player is for risk-reward and gives weight to players with high ceilings. If a player is consistently putting up big numbers, COR ranks them at the top of the list, and vice versa. Enough talking though, let me show you for players heading into Week 12.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by COR from largest to smallest. At the top of list are some familiar names, starting with Carson Wentz. Wentz has been consistently elite all season, and scored very well from CV and tops the list in COR. If you have Wentz, he is a set-and-forget every week. He is also the only qualified player in fantasy with a COR above 100.

Now, one place where people might question COR is by ranking Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Matthew Stafford above the current QB1 in Russell Wilson. To those people, I say COR is highly based on consistency, which is measured by standard deviation. So, despite having lower averages and floors than Wilson, those four QBs score higher because each of their standard deviations is half of Wilson’s, making them more consistent plays on a weekly basis than Wilson. However, I cannot sit here as a fantasy analyst and advocate sitting Wilson for any of those QBs, given how Wilson has been playing (if anyone has that situation).

 

Running Backs

One back I would like to highlight especially on this list, and one I have already highlighted in a previous article, is Christian McCaffrey. I highlighted CMC previously due to his insane consistency on a weekly basis. A few weeks later, McCaffrey still tops the list for consistency based on standard deviation (6th among RBs in this list), but also now based on COR. His ceiling may not be as high as the players around him, but on a weekly basis, CMC blows them all out of the water. Thanks to his work through the air, McCaffrey is a PPR machine and is a high floor option as a RB2, with touchdown upside.

On the opposite side, one surprising player COR does not like very well is Jordan Howard, but rightfully so. If you own Howard, I am sure you understand the frustration that comes with playing him weekly, at least at the start of the year. One week he goes off for nearly 30 points, the next he fails to hit double digits. Because of that, Howard has the second highest CV among these 25 running backs. Despite his ceiling of almost 22 points, Howard can be seen as an almost risky play some weeks given his knack for disappearing and his high inconsistency. He is still a low-end RB1 given his ability to breakout, but should not be heavily relied upon to be a fantasy team’s main source of points from the running back position on a weekly basis.

 

Wide Receivers

Like McCaffrey, another name on this list has been not only consistent, but also elite on a weekly basis. Jarvis Landry has taken his game to the next level this year, finding the end zone more times through 11 weeks this season than any other season in his career. Perhaps it is Jay Cutler, or maybe the Dolphins have begun utilizing him more in the red zone. My biggest qualm with Landry during the offseason was his production after Jay Ajayi took control of that offense. However, even with Ajayi, Landry was producing this season and now that Ajayi is gone, his production has only increased. In PPR leagues, Landry is a borderline WR1 just on receptions alone. Now that he is finding the end zone, Landry has vaulted into an elite asset at the position on a weekly basis. Without scoring, Landry’s floor is still in the double digits as well. This is why he is ranked as the second highest receiver in terms of COR and why he is a weekly plug-and-play as a WR1.

 

Tight Ends

I remain adamant that Ben Watson is a highly undervalued fantasy tight end this year. Despite being owned in only 14% of ESPN leagues, Watson is currently the TE16, ahead of players like Hunter Henry, Julius Thomas, and Eric Ebron, all with higher ownership percentages than Watson. On top of that, Watson is ninth among tight ends in COR, making him a consistent tight end on a weekly basis. In fact, in four of his last five games, Watson has scored eight or more points per game. Extending that to the entire season, Watson has scored eight or more points in seven of his nine games (he didn’t play Week 1). If anyone is concerned about his production with Danny Woodhead back, don’t be. Watson was still productive with Javorius Allen, who averaged almost five receptions per game. If you are still looking for a solid replacement at the tight end position, or need a weekly streamer, Ben Watson is your guy and is almost guaranteed to be available in every redraft league.

 

Flex

Normally, I give two tables for flex plays, one sorted by weekly floors, the other by ceilings. This week, I have one giant table of forty flex players sorted by COR. You will notice Danny Woodhead has an insanely high COR over 170 (he does not a qualified player, so Wentz is still the only qualified above 100), but his two games played this year have been almost identical for fantasy. I included him in the table this week because I believe he is a solid flex play moving forward, especially in PPR leagues.

 

More Week 12 Lineup Prep




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs With Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal With Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
Grayson Murphy

Could Provide Rotational Pass-Rush Depth
Joe Andreessen

in a Good Position to Compete for Backup Job
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Bhayshul Tuten

Needs to Improve Pass Protection
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
EDM

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact With Oilers
SEA

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
PHI

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NYI

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NJ

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
SJ

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF