Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Fantasy Football Consistency Report for Week 6 Lineups


The idea of consistency has become a huge part of fantasy football, and rightfully so. You want players who are going to perform on a weekly basis and will not kill your team with constant duds. In today’s game, consistency has become a measurement of a player’s weekly finish at his position relative to other players at the position. You hear phrases like, “Player A has been an RB1 in 70% of his games while Player B has been an RB1 in only 50% of his games”. While that has meaning and relevance, it is not telling you exactly how many points a player is scoring on a weekly basis. In one week, a back may only need 10 points to be an RB1, while in other weeks it may be 20 or more. What happens to those players who are scoring 13-16 points on a weekly basis?

Another measure of a player’s overall success is his average fantasy points per game. While this may be helpful for players like Antonio Brown or David Johnson, what does it do for players like Brandin Cooks or DeSean Jackson? An average can be a very misleading and skewed statistic based on outliers. Ask a Brandin Cooks owner last year if they felt like they were getting 15.4 fantasy points per game from him. I doubt any would say yes.

What I set out to find was a new way to measure consistency on a weekly basis. As a statistics major in college, the answer was actually quite easy: standard deviation. Standard deviation is defined as a measure used to quantify the amount of variation in a dataset. In English, it measures how spread apart numbers are. Using standard deviation is a new way to quantify consistency in fantasy football in terms of points scored on a weekly basis. This series intends to present weekly scoring at each position in a new light that redefines the way we look at consistency in fantasy football.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Consistency Reports: Weeks 1-5

**Note: the filter for each position was no more than one finish outside the top-36 at their position for QB, RB, WR. No more than one finish outside the top-24 for TE.

Quarterbacks

Looking at the quarterback position, these are the 32 most consistent quarterbacks (through five weeks) based on standard deviation. Looking at the top five, a couple names may not surprise you, like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan. Any player that has a high average amount of points per game coupled with a very low standard deviation is elite, elite, elite. No surprises here with Brees and Rodgers, who are consistently putting up huge numbers. Looking again at the top-five, a couple names may surprise you: Mike Glennon and Jay Cutler. What is interesting about these players is they are extremely consistent, as in consistently bad. Both are averaging less than 10 points per game, but top the QB list in consistency. In the words of Adam “Pacman” Jones, garbage!

As we move on down the list, some interesting names appear. Dak Prescott has been consistently elite this year, in the tier with Brees, Rodgers and Tom Brady. Joe Flacco is another quarterback who has been consistently terrible, averaging 7.28 points per game with a 5.72 standard deviation. Alex Smith has been the talk of the first quarter of 2017. He is averaging over 23 points per game, but is in the bottom half of consistency. This shows both his high ceiling and low floor on a weekly basis. However, compared to a lot of quarterbacks, Smith is a safe weekly play with high upside.

Finally, we get down to the inconsistent quarterbacks on a weekly basis. A lot of you might be shocked to see Tom Brady this low, but so far, his game log has been fairly boom-bust in 2017. Two games over 30 points and two games under 15 will do that. This is not to say Brady is a bad QB option, but his fantasy production has been all over the place through five weeks. Another interesting name is budding star Deshaun Watson. Among quarterbacks, he has been the most inconsistent player in 2017. However, he has increased his scoring in each week throughout the season. Excluding Week 1 when he was not the starter, he has been slightly more consistent with a standard deviation around 8. He has been an ELITE option in recent weeks, but I expect his production to come back to Earth very soon. Still, his rushing ability offers a safe weekly floor and any QB throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller has a very high ceiling.

 

Running Back

Moving onto running backs, the first name that caught my eye is at the top of the list: Mark Ingram. I mentioned on Twitter that he is the most consistent player IN ALL OF FOOTBALL in 2017. A standard deviation less than one is remarkable, though also unsustainable. However, Ingram offers a solid weekly floor of double digit points with touchdown upside. A slight bump with Adrian Peterson gone only elevates his ceiling, but should leave his floor intact. One name at the top of the list I find more interesting is Tevin Coleman. Last year, Coleman was a sell for me after a ridiculously high touchdown rate. I argued that while the ceiling is high for Coleman, his floor makes him difficult to trust on a weekly basis. So far through 2017, however, this has not been the case. Coleman has produced only one game below 10 points this year (Week 1), scoring 9.8 fantasy points. From Weeks 2-4, Coleman has produced double digit points in all three weeks, including one RB13 performance of over 18 points in Week 4. He has been a solid standalone fantasy asset behind Devonta Freeman and should continue to be in the Falcons high-octane offense.

Moving down through the list, the landscape of running backs is fairly similar to quarterbacks. As we get to the bottom of the list, the final three names should come as no surprise. Two players in particular, Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt, have been fantasy MVPs so far with their production. Like Deshaun Watson, Gurley and Hunt’s production has been so out-of-this-world that it must come back to Earth. Again, this is not to say these players are not safe weekly starts, but their production has warranted a high standard deviation. On the other hand, Chris Thompson had two boom weeks that vaulted his fantasy numbers. Through the first three weeks, Thompson was a waiver wire steal… and then Week 4 happened. After two monstrous games, Thompson put up a whopping 1.7 fantasy points before the bye, leaving a very sour taste in owners’ mouths. To me, he is a boom/bust player with a high ceiling but low floor. Proceed with caution.

 

Wide Receivers

What is nice about this list might also be its greatest problem: it’s a short list of receivers. Remember the filter I used to create these lists—no more than one finish outside the top-36. Well, these are the 15 receivers who qualify for that requirement. Receivers are fairly easy to analyze for consistency. The most consistent receivers are PPR machines who are catching 6-8 passes per game, but rarely finding pay dirt, a.k.a Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry. They will never kill your week with a dud performance given the high reception totals each week, but their upside is capped by infrequent visits to the endzone. Julio Jones is a shock to me sitting at third through five weeks. His fantasy production has been slightly boom/bust throughout his career, but so far has been pretty consistent in 2017, though he has yet to have a breakout game.

Again, moving down through the list, the occasional Mohammed Sanu or Chris Hogan might give you some pause. With neither known for being very consistent, maybe they are exploring new waters in their fantasy careers. There is a difference between the two, however: there is a seven-point difference in their average points per game. If you are a Hogan owner, you continue to plug-and-play. Playing Sanu is more matchup-dependent or based on Julio Jones’ availability that week.

At the very bottom of the list, we see Stefon Diggs. I am sure this consistency ranking is by no means shocking to Diggs owners, who are hopeful for a 30-point performance, but are stuck with less than five. He is the living embodiment of inconsistency so far in 2017, if not his entire career. Diggs remains a high-upside play with potential to breakout on any given week, but his floor makes him almost risky to play as an every-week starter.

 

Tight Ends

Finally, we look at the tight end position. In terms of consistency, Zach Ertz has been the second-most consistent player in all of fantasy football through the first five weeks. After him, many tight ends have been fairly consistent, though maybe not in the right way. An example of this is Virgil Green. On paper, he is the fourth most consistent tight end in fantasy, but is consistent around a 4.83 points per game average. Compare that to a player like Zach Miller, who is just as consistent but is averaging almost twice as many fantasy points per game.

The rest of the list is the same analysis as the other three positions. Similarly, at the bottom of the list, we see Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski. Given their elite fantasy production, it makes sense that they would be deemed “inconsistent”, since reproducing elite fantasy numbers over 16 games is hard to do. Given their high weekly average, Gronk and Kelce are absolutely must starts every week, but you don’t need me to tell you that.

Overall, I hope this new way of looking at consistency sheds a little more light on a player's scoring potential on a weekly basis. I will continue to update the consistency charts as we move through 2017 to give a brief look at how weekly performances can change a player's outlook as a fantasy producer. Until next time, good luck!

 

More Week 6 Lineup Prep




More Recent Articles

 

Week 10 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

We got a good one on Monday night folks. Both for the NFC West division and, more importantly, for fantasy. Two of the top teams in the NFL matchup at Levi's Stadium. We can finally find out if the 49ers are for real, or if they were just beating up on bad teams all season.... Read More


Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's crunch time, with precious few games left before the fantasy regular season ends. There aren't many new names emerging on the waiver wire at this juncture but the RB situations in Atlanta and Detroit bear watching, while the Jets passing game has shown signs of life. No, really. Each week, we will advise you... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 11 Lightning Round

With 10 weeks down and only a few more weeks of the fantasy regular season to go, your vision for the playoffs should be coming into focus. The Giants, Packers, Seahawks and Titans are on bye -- with the Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings in Week 12 to round out the weekly vacations. To help... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 11. Some of you are in the favorable position of only needing slight modifications to rosters that are destined to enter the fantasy playoffs. But many of you are still searching for the most effective... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

Did you survive the terrible, no good, very bad six-team bye week? If so, welcome to the other side, when roster building gets slightly easier going forward. If not, I'm sorry, but you still have time to get things back on the right path. Let's talk about some wide receivers who might be able to... Read More


Week 11 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

If your fantasy football squad is still in the playoff hunt heading into Week 11, then congratulations on not being the Pat Shurmur or Freddie Kitchens of your league. Fantasy football players will have to live without New York’s Evan Engram, Green Bay’s Jimmy Graham and Tennessee’s Jonnu Smith as their teams are on bye.... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 11

We've got plenty to unpack at the quarterback position following an exciting Week 10. While no major injuries occurred in game, the revelation of Matthew Stafford's back injury was quite a surprise and left some owners scrambling just before lineups locked. So the year of the backup continued this week, as 16 of the 32... Read More


Week 10 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system.   NFL Matchup Ratings - Weekly Lineup Projections FLEX RB WR TE QB DEF K ** click column headers to sort table Player... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 10 Matthew Stafford has been ruled out with fractured bones in his back. Patrick Mahomes will make his return in... Read More


Week 10 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 10... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 10 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 10 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 10 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: LeSean McCoy is a healthy scratch for Week 10. Matthew Stafford has been ruled out with fractured bones in his back. Patrick Mahomes will make his return in... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 10

Welcome to our Week 10 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 10 Wide Receiver / Cornerback Matchups To Target in Week 10

In Week 9, the Seahawks defeated the Buccaneers 40-34 and, as expected, provided some offensive fireworks. The high-scoring contest resulted in Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and D.K. Metcalf all finishing in the top-three of fantasy scoring at the wide receiver position. Tyreek Hill proved to be too fast for the Vikings secondary, finishing as the... Read More


The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 10

Welcome to Week 10, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More