Third-Year Fantasy Football Draft Values: Upside Picks At A Discount (2025)

August 24, 2025

Dave's top five third-year fantasy football sleepers, draft values, or breakout candidates for 2025. His top Year 3 draft targets, including Tucker Kraft.

Over the last few years, we have increasingly seen fantasy football managers lean into youth more than ever before. This is largely because we have had a plethora of young players enter the league and immediately return elite results.

However, just because a player isn’t a high-end contributor right out of the gates doesn’t mean he can't eventually become one. Sometimes, it takes a few years for players to fully mature and come into their own. We typically see this happen with wide receivers, and we often see them experience breakout seasons in their third year. While that’s the most common position where we see this phenomenon occur, running backs and tight ends are not immune to third-year breakouts.

Several third-year players are set for career years this season. Which ones should you target in your 2025 fantasy football draft? Let’s dive in and find out.

Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers

Kraft will look to build upon a solid 2024 sophomore season. He finished the year with a 50-707-7 line and averaged an impressive 14.1 yards per reception. Green Bay has stated multiple times this offseason its desire to further incorporate Kraft into its offense in 2025.

#Packers HC Matt LaFleur on whether Tucker Kraft can fulfill a George Kittle/Travis Kelce role:

“100%. And I think that’s on us to make sure that we find him and feature him. When he gets the ball in his hands, you feel him. So, if there is an area that we gotta do a better job… pic.twitter.com/FjrBnD16mj

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) January 14, 2025

Packers Looking to Expand Tucker Kraft's Role https://t.co/237ieXwqpe

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) July 25, 2025

From head coach Matt LaFleur to offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich to quarterback Jordan Love, each one has said Kraft will be more involved this year. Considering how good Kraft was in 2024 on just 70 targets, we could see a major statistical improvement across the board if he gets a larger piece of the pie.

One thing potentially working against Kraft this year is that the Packers were extremely run-heavy in 2024. However, things could be different in 2025. Love played through multiple injuries last year, and it’s possible Green Bay shifted its offensive approach to protect its franchise quarterback.

Love averaged just over 34 pass attempts per game in 2023 compared to 28.3 attempts last year. The Packers had no problem letting Love air it out more in 2023 when he was healthy. So, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect the Packers to throw the ball more in 2025 with a fully healthy Love.

We’ve got several scenarios here where Kraft hits. Most importantly, it seems very clear that Green Bay will target him more this season. That all makes Kraft an ideal third-year breakout candidate.

He’s a fantastic option for gamers who bypass the top tight ends early and want to select one later in the draft. This feels like a great way to gain a positional advantage without paying top dollar.

Tank Bigsby - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

In 2024, Bigsby ran for 766 rushing yards on 168 attempts, averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and scored seven rushing touchdowns.

TANK BIGSBY STIFF ARMS HIS WAY TO A 65-YARD TD.

📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/oVugPI0X5s

— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

He has reportedly been getting plenty of run with the first-team offense this summer. It sounds like Bigsby could be heading for some type of backfield split with Travis Etienne Jr. That is probably a good move for Jacksonville since Bigsby outproduced Etienne on the ground last year.

The third-year back also outproduced Etienne in several advanced running back metrics. Bigsby finished higher than Etienne in Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected, PFF elusive rating, and Fantasy Points Data Suite’s missed tackles forced per attempt. Etienne has struggled with efficiency each of the last two years, so it’s not wild to suggest Bigsby could emerge as the preferred back.

New Jacksonville head coach Liam Coen worked wonders for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running game last year. His system brought life to a Buccaneers rushing attack that had previously struggled with efficiency. If Coen’s system has a similar effect on the Jaguars' offense, Bigsby could be in line for a career year.

With an FFPC ADP of 137.72 overall, Bigsby makes for a great late-round flyer pick, especially if you go with a Zero RB draft strategy.

Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs fits the profile of a classic third-year breakout receiver. He is a talented player who has slowly improved during each of his first two years in the league. Last year, Downs proved that he can draw targets and produce when allowed to do so.

Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Downs posted a 30% targets per route run (TPRR) and a 2.28 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2024. Scores like these indicate Downs is a far better player than his raw stats suggest. It also means he is capable of producing a monster fantasy season. He just needs to be used as one.

That’s where things get a bit tricky, as there are some potential roadblocks to a breakout. Daniel Jones opening the season as the QB1 causes some concern. Downs also faces stiff competition for targets from rookie tight end Tyler Warren and veteran receiver Michael Pittman Jr. Warren, in particular, could be the biggest threat for Downs as the rookie could potentially steal the underneath targets that Downs gobbles up in the slot.

While that wouldn’t be great, Downs is still a phenomenal separator and one of the more underrated receivers in the league.

Touchdown Josh Downs to give Indy a 24-7 lead!

📺: #TENvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PAQDLqNOH2

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

Drafting Downs is purely a bet on his talent winning out. Fortunately for gamers, the price to gamble on that talent is very affordable.

Downs' current FFPC ADP is 104.49 overall. This is a great price to take a shot on Downs hitting his ceiling. He is an ideal WR3 or flex play and is a good target for gamers who stockpile running backs early in their draft.

Jayden Reed - WR, Green Bay Packers

Reed has shown tantalizing upside during the first two seasons of his career.

JAYDEN REED LEFT WIDE OPEN FOR THE 70-YARD TD.

📺: #GBvsPHI on Peacock pic.twitter.com/cAvTn5HLLd

— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2024

Still scoring TDs... Jayden Reed takes it 34 yards to the house! @Packers

📺: #GBvsPHI on Peacock pic.twitter.com/rDhTef9Jm7

— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2024

After a promising rookie season that saw him finish as the PPR WR25, Reed took a step back in 2024 and only finished as the PPR WR29. Part of the issue for Reed is that he has failed to consistently see the field in two-wide receiver sets.

While he initially was utilized in two-receiver sets early in training camp this year, things could be more of the same this year.

Update: Jayden Reed played exactly 0 snaps out wide during Packers’ Family Night practice

📸 @JuMosq https://t.co/PiNPX6bV5F pic.twitter.com/NqRo8C21aR

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 3, 2025

Rookie receiver Matthew Golden appears to be the biggest obstacle in Reed’s path to more playing time. While Golden has reportedly been impressive in training camp, recent comments from Jordan Love suggest Golden may still be getting up to speed with parts of the offense.

Definitely what you want to hear about a rookie WR.

But.

Love saying Golden is really good when he “knows what he’s doing” suggests Golden is still learning and might start slow the season slow.

However, he could be a league-winner by year’s end.

pic.twitter.com/Pt52MVoCBQ

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) August 6, 2025

If that’s the case, there could be an opening for Reed to sneak onto the field more in two-receiver sets. If not, there is still a path for a third-year breakout.

As noted earlier in the Tucker Kraft section, Green Bay could very well throw the ball more often in 2025. That added volume could be enough to help Reed take a meaningful step forward. Reed is currently nursing a foot injury he sustained in training camp, but the team has stated they expect him to be ready for Week 1.

While there are concerns, the reality is that Reed’s upside is not fully baked into his current FFPC ADP of 105.07 overall. Target him in running back-heavy builds, or if you just want to take a shot on a highly talented player putting it all together.

Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens

We'll go with another third-year receiver for our final entry. Flowers has showcased some elite ability in the open field during his two years in the league. He's also a solid separator and is capable of producing splash plays.

SEVENTY-FIVE YARD TOUCHDOWN FOR ZAY FLOWERS!!!!!

Tune in on CBS! pic.twitter.com/1rxQdgbKGf

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 31, 2023

Flowers eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in 2024. He posted a 74-1,059-4 line on 116 targets. He had fewer receptions and touchdowns than he posted as a rookie in 2023, but his efficiency improved as he averaged 14.3 yards per reception.

The main issue for Flowers has been the offense in which he plays. Baltimore remains one of the more run-heavy teams in the league. That means passing volume is often limited. Flowers also has stiff target competition in the form of Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely.

While that seems daunting, Baltimore did significantly scale back Andrews' role last year, and Likely is already dealing with a foot injury. Bateman is coming off a career year in 2024, but he has a long history of injuries, and Flowers is arguably the better player.

Also working in his favor is that Flowers might be due for some positive touchdown regression. His nine career receiving touchdowns are a bit low considering he plays alongside Lamar Jackson. If some of Baltimore's other skill players regress, there is a scenario where Flowers hits double-digit touchdowns this year. That would be enough to see Flowers take a major leap forward in terms of fantasy production.

Some elements are working against a Flowers breakout, but talented players have a way of overcoming poor circumstances. If you're targeting third-year players in your draft, Flowers should be at the top of your list.

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