4 Fantasy Football QB Sleepers or Busts: Top Quarterback Draft Targets and Avoids (2025)

Andrew Ball's fantasy football quarterbacks to target and avoid in 2025 drafts. Fantasy outlooks on Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, and Justin Fields.

There’s the elite tier and everybody else in the quarterback landscape this season.

It’s not to say that there aren’t more tiers, and you should absolutely be drafting with that in mind. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts are the consensus top group, and then cases can be made for more than a dozen signal callers, to varying degrees.

Therefore, this season, a bust isn’t so much based on projecting a bad season, but rather on what it will cost in fantasy drafts. That’s where this article's busts come from, and I’ll toss in some of my favorite sleepers from the quarterback conglomerate.

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Bust: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield is a completely different player from the former overall pick who appeared to be the man to bring Cleveland back from the brink of despair, before floundering in Carolina and Los Angeles, trending toward an early exit from the NFL.

Back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons contributed to two top-12 finishes, the first and second times in his seven-year career. A career-best 41 passing touchdowns (13 more than 2023) led to the QB4 finish last season.

For the third time in as many seasons in Tampa, there's turnover in Tampa Bay at the offensive coordinator position. Dave Canales and Liam Coen took head coaching jobs after successful campaigns. There won't be a drastic change in 2025. New coordinator Josh Grizzard was on Tampa's staff last season and is using much of the same terminology. Plus, first-round rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka joins what was already a loaded depth chart, even if Chris Godwin (ankle) won't be healthy for Week 1.

So, what's the issue with Mayfield?

The rushing numbers were astronomical, at least compared to Mayfield's standards. The 30-year-old rushed for 378 yards and three touchdowns last season. That's eight yards shy of his total from the previous three seasons combined. He had more attempts in 2024 than he did the year prior. Outside of 2019, he's had one or zero ground scores every season.

Reminder:

Baker Mayfield went from a career-high of 10.3 to 22.2 rushing yards per game in one year with Liam Coen. https://t.co/Lw0GXvh1y6

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 5, 2025

Plus, there's the aforementioned touchdown total from 2024. Those passing scores came on an absurd 7.2% rate. Lamar Jackson leads all active quarterbacks with a 6.4% rate. Aaron Rodgers is the only other active signal caller over six percent. Mayfield's career rate is an even five percent (a figure boosted by last season). That rate, on his 570 attempts last season, would have led to 28.5 scores.

Mayfield continues to have a ball security issue. He fumbled 13 times in the regular season, somehow only losing two. He also tied Kirk Cousins for 16 interceptions, the most in football.

Here's a line you'll read for the second (and not the final) time: Mayfield's bust prediction is all about his cost. Because of his high-profile, resurgent season, Mayfield is an early sixth-round pick. Wait on the quarterback position if you don't select one of the top five. Mayfield won't be three rounds (or more) better than his QB1 counterparts (which we'll dive more into in our later sections).

Bust: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Say the line, Bart!

Nix's bust prediction is not so much based on his overall performance, but rather where he is being selected in drafts. Okay, we should finally be done with that disclaimer, especially because there is a lot to like about Nix both this year and beyond.

For starters, he was QB7 last season, despite being a rookie and having a deep, albeit not top-heavy, receiving corps. The former Auburn Tiger and Oregon Duck was fifth among quarterbacks in rush attempts, only trailing scramblers and gallopers like Hurts, Daniels, Jackson, and Allen. All of those names finished in the top 8 in 2024. Targeting run-heavy signal callers is always a smart strategy.

2024 Scramble Rate Leaders via @FantasyPtsData:

1. Jayden Daniels - 12.0%
2. Drake Maye - 10.8%
3. Jalen Hurts - 8.9%
4. Lamar Jackson - 8.5%
5. Brock Purdy - 8.3%
6. Bryce Young - 8.0%
7. Josh Allen - 8.0%
8. Bo Nix - 7.8%
9. Deshaun Watson - 7.4%
10. Caleb Williams - 7.4%

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 13, 2025

The Denver front office took what was essentially a Courtland Sutton-and-everybody-else receiver group and added talent for Nix to target. Tight end Evan Engram, who caught 114 passes in Jacksonville two seasons ago, joined the fold. He stumbled through an injury-plagued 2024, but reports out of camp say the two-time Pro Bowler is a seamless fit. While he may not move the needle much this year, third-round rookie Pat Bryant drew rave reviews from head coach Sean Payton in the draft process. Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele now have a full season of NFL experience under their belts.

And, possibly as important as any roster additions, are running backs RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. Harvey, in particular, should be a much-improved version of the pass-catching running back role that Javonte Williams manned last year. Williams saw the fifth-most targets (70) among all running backs, but it came with just the 31st-ranked catch rate (74.3%), along with a 4.3% drop rate. Dobbins is fresh off a career-best mark in receptions, despite playing for a Greg Roman-led offense that historically doesn't heavily utilize running backs in the passing game.

Nix had two modes of operation during his rookie season: throw a short pass or chuck it deep. He was third among quarterbacks in deep pass attempts, but was also 30th in yards per attempt (6.7). The running backs and Engram (who has a yards per reception average under 10 for his career) will help in the short game. Marvin Mims Jr. and Sutton will help with the long game. But, as opposing coaches recognize the lack of intermediate throws, defenses could figure him out.

There's still more optimism than pessimism about Nix in his sophomore campaign. That's why he's being selected as the eighth quarterback off the board. However, the difference between Nix and the rest of the QB1s (and even some QB2s) is marginal. Nix averaged 0.2 fantasy points more than Justin Fields in the latter's six starts last season. Brock Purdy's difference was under a point. Kyler Murray was just over one point behind Nix. Jared Goff outscored the youngster.

All can be found at least one round later (Murray), with the others (four of five of which are in RotoBaller's top 12) several rounds later. The difference between a sixth-round wide receiver or running back and one in the ninth or tenth round will be far more significant.

Sleeper: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Love is hiding in plain sight, and the fantasy community is forgetting how good he can be.

Let's rewind to 2023. A first-year starter, Love threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns while adding 50 carries for 247 yards and four scores on the ground. His compiled stats led to a QB5 finish (QB6 in points per game). The expectations were just as high for Love entering his second season leading the Packers.

Yes, he busted in 2024, and maybe fantasy managers can't forgive or forget. The savvy managers will find great value in drafts if they can.

The former first-round pick sprained his MCL at the tail end of the team's Week 1 matchup against Philadelphia on a shaky surface in Brazil. Still, he scored a respectable 17.1 fantasy points against what would go on to be one of the best pass defenses in football. He missed two games with the injury, but returned in a sizzling fashion.

Love threw 13 touchdowns across the next four games, averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game, which only trailed Jackson and Mayfield. He did it with little rushing production, still tending to a knee that was far from 100 percent.

The injuries started stacking up in Week 8 when Love pulled a groin muscle. He became even more of a statue in the pocket, and production dipped as Matt LaFleur protected his quarterback and relied on Josh Jacobs and the running game often. The Packers called a run play at the third-highest rate last season.

Jordan Love missed Weeks 2-3 and played through a groin injury from Week 8 on.

The Packers posted a +3.6% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 5 games with a healthy Love, which would have ranked 7th-highest.

In their other games? A -8.2% PROE, which would have ranked dead-last. pic.twitter.com/9fd4yXrfB3

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 23, 2025

With Love now healthy and the Packers investing their first-round draft pick on a wide receiver, expect a more balanced offensive attack like they had in 2023 and a return to QB1 status for Love. There are reports that Love expects to run more this upcoming season (his attempts were cut in half from 2023 to 2024), adding boosted opportunities for fantasy points.

Love is still available in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts this summer, making him one of the easiest clicks for teams that miss out on one of the elite throwers. Don't mind rostering two quarterbacks? Pair Love with a riskier upside swing like Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, or even the next guy on this list.

Sleeper: Justin Fields, New York Jets

2-10, 4-16, 2-6, or 10-10 passing - It doesn't matter! Fields doesn't need efficient passing numbers to score fantasy points.

Fields and Anthony Richardson Sr. own the biggest gaps between a good quarterback and a good fantasy quarterback. It won't be pretty. At times, it will be painful to watch. But the production will eventually shine through.

Top QBs by Fantasy Points per Dropback over the last three combined seasons @FantasyPtsData

1. Lamar Jackson (0.69)
2. Jalen Hurts (0.68)
3. Josh Allen (0.66)
4. Justin Fields (0.62) – QB18 in ADP
5. Jayden Daniels (0.61)
6. Brock Purdy (0.58)
7. Jordan Love (0.53) – QB17 in ADP

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 8, 2025

Fields reportedly hasn't had a strong training camp through the air. The first three figures from the first sentence (a.k.a. not the perfect completion percentage) were some of his recent performances in Florham Park.

Fields completed 65% or fewer of his pass attempts in four of his six starts last year for Pittsburgh. In those games, he threw for 117, 312, 131, and 145 yards. Meanwhile, he scored 11.4, 32, 15.9, and 23.7 fantasy points in four point per passing touchdown leagues. Funny enough, last season was his best completion percentage of his four-year career. It's improved every year.

The rushing upside is a constant, dating back to his days with the Chicago Bears. He scored five rushing touchdowns in his six starts for the Steelers. He was the QB7 per game in that short stint. He was a QB1 in 2022 with 1,143 rushing yards in 15 games. He didn't quite live up to the hype and draft capital in year three in 2023, but guess what? He still finished the season inside the top 12 quarterbacks on a per-game basis.

Essentially, outside of his rookie season, he's never not been a fantasy football QB1. We knew last season wasn't going to last; the Steelers had a set-in-stone plan to start Russell Wilson when he was healthy. It's hard to envision the Jets' coaching staff turning to a 35-year-old, currently injured Tyrod Taylor, barring an injury to Fields. And as long as he's running, he'll be in the weekly QB1 conversation, despite how ugly it will be for him to get there.

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