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Starting pitchers to add and stream in Week 15 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Michael Grennell analyzes the top SP streamers to pick up off waivers.
The All-Star Game starting lineups have officially been announced! I know the guy I'm most excited to see get the starting nod is Adam Frazier. Who are you all excited to see named as a starter? Who are your biggest snubs?
With the All-Star Game coming up, that means we won't be back to discussing two-start streaming options again until July 16. But before that happens, we've still got one week to look forward to and two weeks to look back on. Closing out Week 13's column, Ross Stripling gets the slight edge as the top option from that column after going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. However you would be pretty pleased if you had gone with Tarik Skubal as well. Skubal didn't factor into the decision in either start, but posted a 2.31 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings of work. As for Week 14, it's another close call between two guys, as Caleb Smith allowed two runs in five innings with eight strikeouts but earned the loss, while Carlos Martinez allowed one run in six innings with six strikeouts to earn his first win since May 8.
Alright, time for one last look before the All-Star break. Here are the guys you should be looking at, and we'll be back in action after the All-Star Game. Go American League!
Week 15 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Steven Matz, TOR - 47% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ BAL, @ TBR
Matz has had quite the up-and-down season this year. When he's pitching well, he's pitching really well. And when he's struggling, it makes fantasy managers want to curl up in bed and cry. For example, in his latest start he surrendered four runs on five hits in 2 2/3 innings of work against the Seattle "Dead-Last In The Majors In Batting Average" Mariners. But in the start before that, he limited the Boston "Third-Highest Team Average" Red Sox to one run on four hits while striking out eight in 5 2/3 innings of work. All that being said, he's 7-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 24.8 percent strikeout rate this season, and with a 3.83 xERA it suggests that he's been slightly unlucky at times this year. So he's a bit of a gamble in a vacuum, but let's take a look at those matchups and see what value he can have.
He'll be on the road for both starts this week, which actually looks to be a good thing for his value as he has pitched far better this season on the road (6-1, 3.43 ERA, 1.030 WHIP) than at home (1-2, 6.51 ERA, 1.916 WHIP). First up on his slate are the Orioles, who are slashing .236/.305/.357 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over their last 10 games. And no offense Baltimore fans, but surprisingly the Orioles could be a tough matchup for Matz, as not only are they hitting better at home (.248/.316/.424) they are also hitting better against left-handed pitching (.277/.329/.445) than against right-handers (.221/.291/.374).
So of course after what looks to be a tougher matchup against the fifth-place Orioles, it only makes sense that it looks like he'll have what looks like a good matchup against the second-place Rays. While the Rays are slashing .230/.315/.407 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over their last 10 games, they are also hitting worse at home this season (.225/.320/.372) and are hitting worse against left-handed pitching (.228/.307/.377) than against right-handed pitching (.231/.321/.402). Matz has also had success against the Rays already this season, as he allowed three runs over five innings while striking out seven to earn the win back in April.
You've got an inconsistent pitcher entering Week 15 with a difficult matchup against a fifth-place team and a nicer matchup against a second-place team. Needless to say, he's somewhat of a wildcard and a bit of a risky play. But for managers who have no problem with risking their ERA, Matz should be a great pickup for his strikeout potential this week, as the Orioles are 13th in the majors with a 23.9 percent strikeout rate, while the Rays are tied for second in the majors with a 26.7 percent rate.
Mike Minor, KCR - 34% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs CIN, @ CLE
Let's try this again. Minor was featured in the Week 13 column, but thanks to a shift in schedule, he only made one of his scheduled starts that week. He's back in position for a two-start week now, but it's coming on the heels of a rough stretch of outings. Over his last two outings, Minor has been pummeled for 14 runs on 18 hits over 10 innings of work against the Rangers and Red Sox. He's now 6-6 on the year with a 5.33 ERA, but he's also posted a 23.2 percent strikeout rate and a 4.23 xERA that, while not necessarily great, suggests he's been somewhat unlucky this year.
He'll be pitching at home against Cincinnati to open up the week, and he'll be facing a team that's been hitting well over their last 10 games, where they are slashing .270/.358/.445 and averaging 5.2 runs per game in that span. But while they are hitting well right now, Minor should benefit from their batting splits in this matchup. The Reds are hitting significantly worse against left-handers (.225/.308/.370) than against right-handers (.259/.338/.438) this season, and they are also hitting significantly worse on the road (.236/.312/.373) than at home (.266/.350/.473).
The second outing of the week should be a nice one for Minor, as he faces off against a struggling Indians offense. Over their last 10 games, they are averaging 4.0 runs per game and slashing .218/.271/.399 with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate in that span. Along with that, Cleveland is hitting worse this year against left-handed pitching (.222/.299/.381, 23.1 K%) than against right-handers (.231/.295/.401, 22.8 K%).
So he's coming off a pair of bad starts, but I like his chances of a bounce-back performance in Week 15. Especially with a couple of solid matchups based on the splits. I anticipate the Cleveland outing will be his best, and if he can get through Cincinnati without much issue, he should be a solid option for most managers.
Week 15 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Jon Gray, COL - 21% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ ARI, @ SDP
Gray has been inconsistent from year-to-year through his career, but 2021 is looking like one of the good seasons for him, as he is now 5-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 20.6 percent strikeout rate. He's coming off back-to-back solid outings, where he's combined to post a 1.64 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 11 innings against the Brewers and Pirates. Now you might think pitching on the road for both starts would help Gray's value this week, however he's done worse on the road this year (0-4, 5.32 ERA, 1.690 WHIP) than at home (5-2, 3.22 ERA, 1.033 WHIP). But that shouldn't matter too much when you open the week against the Diamondbacks, who are slashing .238/.328/.367 while averaging 8.8 strikeouts and 3.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. Plus, they're hitting worse against right-handers (.227/.300/.358) than against lefties (.243/.322/.413). That second outing will likely be a rough one for Gray, as he's only put up so-so performances in two starts against San Diego this year (3.97 ERA, 7 K, 11 1/3 IP), and the Padres are now slashing .277/.366/.516 while averaging 5.0 runs per game over their last 10 games.
This is a "one good start, one bad start" dilemma for managers this week. The start against Arizona should be a good one for him, however that San Diego outing could end up a disaster. I think Gray can put up good enough numbers in Arizona this week that if he can put up even an average performance against San Diego he should be worth scooping off the waiver-wire.
Vladimir Gutierrez, CIN - 20% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ STL, vs SFG
Gutierrez got off to a nice start to his career, going 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 23 innings of work. But over his last three starts he's struggled against San Diego and Atlanta — combining to go 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.892 WHIP over 15 1/3 innings. He should be able to bounce back from the recent poor performances when he faces a slumping Cardinals team that is slashing .220/.298/.362 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. He should also benefit from their platoon splits, as the Cardinals are hitting worse against right-handers (.223/.293/.371) than against lefties (.241/.323/.399). He'll have a tougher matchup to close out the week though, as he faces off against the Giants, who are averaging 4.7 runs per game and slashing .248/.319/.437 over their last 10 games. He's on the wrong side of their platoon splits, as the Giants are hitting better against right-handers this season (.241/.321/.435), however he could benefit from the fact that San Francisco is hitting worse on the road (.230/.306/.419) than at home (.252/.344/.441).
Just like with Gray, you got one good start and one bad start for Gutierrez this week. But just like with Gray, I think that Gutierrez should provide good enough value in his first start that if he can put up an average outing against San Francisco, managers will still be happy with his overall performance. I'd recommend managers target Gray first before Gutierrez, but if Gray is gone, Gutierrez should still be a solid play.
Wily Peralta, DET - 0% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ TEX, @ MIN
For the first time this year we have a guy who is available in every league. And it's for good reason as he was shaky over his first two starts of the season, where he combined to post a 5.87 ERA and 1.434 WHIP over 7 2/3 innings against the Angels and Astros. But he's coming off a nice outing in his last start, where he limited Cleveland to one unearned run with five strikeouts in five innings of work. His first start of the week will come against a Texas squad that has been heating up lately, slashing .283/.351/.493 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last 10 games. That looks like a potentially rough matchup, however he could benefit from their platoon splits as they are hitting slightly worse against right-handers (.230/.304/.385) than against left-handers. Plus there could be some good strikeout potential here, as the Rangers have the 11th-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 24.3 percent. He'll have another tough matchup against the Twins, as they come into the week averaging 5.2 runs per game and slashing .253/.328/.451 over their last 10 games. Peralta could benefit from their splits here though, as not only are they hitting worse against right-handers this season (.240/.318/.426), they are also hitting worse at home (.241/.313/.430) than on the road (.250/.320/.436).
I'm not going to sugarcoat things — Peralta is the riskiest play by far out of this week's column. But he's also available in virtually every league, meaning if you wanted to load up on pitching performances this week you can stack him up with one or even two of the other guys on this list. If you're trying to load up on strikeouts this week and don't care about ERA, grab Peralta off the waiver-wire and pair him up with other options on this list for the best potential value.
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