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Justin's NASCAR Cup Series DFS picks for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Check out his sleepers and top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for the race.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond this weekend for the Toyota Owners 400. Last weekend at COTA, William Byron dominated, leading 42 of the 68 laps as he became the first driver to win twice this season. Despite that, he sits just sixth in the overall standings right now.
Martin Truex Jr. hasn't won yet, but he currently leads the regular season standings by five points over his teammate Ty Gibbs, who also hasn't won. Three of the top four in the standings are Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, with Denny Hamlin in fourth. It's been a good season so far for JGR.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Toyota Owners 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on Sunday, March 31 at 7:13 p.m. EST. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Christopher Bell
Starts 29th - DK: $11,000, FD: $13,500
Christopher Bell is obvious chalk this week based on his 29th-place starting spot, as he offers a ton of place differential upside. It wouldn't be shocking to see Bell win the race and max out those PD points. He's started outside the top 20 here in three consecutive races and has two top-five finishes in that span.
Bell hasn't won here yet in the Cup Series, but it's one of those things that feels like it's coming. Before his 20th-place result in the second Richmond race last season, Bell had five consecutive finishes of sixth or better here, including a runner-up finish in 2022. He's also found victory lane three times here in the Xfinity Series. The last time was in 2019 when he utterly dominated, leading 238 laps on his way to the victory;
Martin Truex Jr.
Starts 7th - DK: $10,800, FD: $13,000
Richmond has always been a good track for Martin Truex Jr., as he's won here three times and has 17 top-10 finishes in 35 starts. His most recent win here was in 2021.
Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, Todd Gilliland and Martin Truex Jr. advance to the final round of qualifying from Group B.#NASCAR
— Dustin Albino (@DustinAlbino) March 30, 2024
Since NASCAR moved to this new car in 2022, Truex has finishes of fourth, seventh, 11th, and seventh again here and has led double-digit laps in three of the four races. He hasn't found victory lane at Richmond in this new car, but he's shown that he's capable of it. Truex is my pick to win Sunday night's Toyota Owners 400.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 23rd - DK: $8,200, FD: $10,500
Brad Keselowski has run four races here since moving to RFK Racing, finishing in the top 15 in each of those starts. That includes a pair of top 10s in 2023. A two-time winner at this track, Brad K has finished in the top 10 in exactly half of his Richmond Cup Series starts, with an average finish of 12.1 here.
2024 has been pretty up and down for Keselowski. He has top fives at Phoenix and Bristo, but also three finishes of 33rd, including last week at COTA. A track like Richmond could be a welcome relief for the No. 6 team.
Keselowski's 23rd-place starting spot offers a decent amount of place differential upside. If he can keep the car clean, he can get you between +10 and +15 points from place differential.
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Chase Briscoe
Starts 32nd - DK: $7,600, FD: $7,200
A poor qualifying effort finds Chase Briscoe starting way back in 32nd, but if he can keep this No. 14 car clean then he can have a solid fantasy day on Sunday. Briscoe has never had a top 10 here in the Cup Series, but he's come close three times, posting two 11ths and one 12th over his last four starts at this track. Overall, he has an average finish of 15.8 and has finished with positive place differential in four of his six Richmond starts.
This season, Briscoe has shown some big improvement over last year, with his average finish rising to 16.2 from 20.3 last season. He has two top 10s already after collecting eight of them all of the 2023 season.
Michael McDowell
Starts 31st - DK: $7,000, FD: $6,500
Michael McDowell's another place differential option that stands out on this weekend's slate, as the No. 34 car will fire off from back in 31st.
Couple of new schemes for Front Row Motorsports this weekend at Richmond.
Long John Silvers returns to the No. 34 car for Michael McDowell.
FARXIGA is the sponsor for Todd Gilliland. pic.twitter.com/K8DtO9E3Ew
— Dustin Albino (@DustinAlbino) March 26, 2024
2023 was a breakout year for the veteran driver, as he finished 15th in points and won his second career race. 2024's off to a rockier start, as McDowell sits 20th in points. He's qualified well with an average starting spot of 9.7, but hasn't finished races, with a 21.0 average finish.
This week though, McDowell starts far enough back to really change the math on playing him. He only averages 13.4 DraftKings points per race, but so much of that has been because of negative place differential. That shouldn't hinder him on Sunday.
Daniel Hemric
Starts 34th - DK: $5,000, FD: $2,000
The fact that a Kaulig car is the cheapest car in the field on both DraftKings and FanDuel is pretty sad considering the hopes this team had to be competitive in Cup.
Still, I think Daniel Hemric's not the worst driver in this field. His average finish this season is 24.3, which is 10 spots better than this qualifying effort, and he has three top 20s. I don't expect great things on Sunday from this No. 31 car. I don't even expect a top 20. But I do think that he can net you positive place differential points at a super cheap price.
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