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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 5/21/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including moneylines and over/unders.
Welcome back RotoBallers! On Tuesday, May 21st, we see a huge 15 game MLB slate. The day starts with a 6:10 PM game between the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Indians, and ends with a 10:10 PM game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, May 21st. Good luck!
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Boston Red Sox (-150) @ Toronto Blue Jays | O/U: 9
We see a considerable change in the odds from yesterday's game, as the Red Sox drop to only -150 favorites against the Blue Jays. This is due in part to Marcus Stroman's 2.95 ERA and Ace status in the Blue Jays rotation. I will look to the numbers to see that this could be a bit of mispricing, as the Blue Jays have been 2-8 straight up when Stroman starts the game.
These results make Stroman the fifth-least profitable pitcher in the Majors. When it comes to recent form, the Blue Jays have only managed four wins over their last 10 games, while the Red Sox have been hot with seven wins in their last 10. Oddly enough, the Blue Jays have also struggled at the Rogers Centre this season, coming in with an abysmal 6-15 record.
My Picks: Red Sox (-150)
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-135) | O/U: 8.5
We have another mispricing here in this game with the Brewers coming in at -135 favorites against the Cincinnati Reds. For starters, the Brewers have Gio Gonzalez taking the mound with his 2-0 record and 1.69 ERA, while the Reds counter with Sonny Gray and his 0-4 record and 4.30 ERA.
The Brewers have played their best baseball at home, boasting a 16-7 record, while the Reds have struggled outside of Cincinnati, putting up a 9-15 record. There isn't much else to say here except lock in the Brewers while these odds still exist.
My Picks: Brewers (-135), Brewers -1.5
Colorado Rockies (-116) @ Pittsburgh Pirates | O/U: 7.5
This number seems too good to be true in this matchup. German Marquez has struggled in his last two starts on the road, allowing nine runs over 13 innings. Chris Archer has been a shell of his former self, allowing six earned runs in each of his last two starts, and failing to make it past the fourth inning in either outing.
Rockies games have gone over in seven of the last ten games, while the Pirates have gone over in four of their last five. This total number could hit before the starters even come out of the game, so I will be locking in the Over. Both teams have team totals of 3.5, so I would be interested in sprinkling a bit of cash on both of these numbers as well considering the struggles that each starting pitcher have had in the past month.
My Picks: Over 7.5, Rockies Team Total O3.5, Pirates Team Total O3.5
Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers (-107) | O/U: 7.5
There's nothing I hate more than betting the under and rooting for a pitching duel, so if you see me picking an under, you should know that the numbers are there to back it up. Betting the under on a 7.5 total is one of the worst feelings ever, but you have to consider it when two of the worst offences in baseball face off. Spencer Turnbull has had some outstanding outings against teams that are a lot better than the Marlins, so I can't see them getting much off of him in this matchup.
The Marlins will send their best starter, Caleb Smith, who hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs since early April. The Tigers have scored 11 runs in their last five games, while the Marlins have only managed 13 in their last five, with eight of those runs coming in one outlier of a game against the Mets. This could be a snoozefest of a game unless you like watching hitters fail, so my suggestion is to lock in this bet and check the score when it's over.
My Pick: Under 7.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-107) | O/U: 7
The oddsmakers have this game billed as a toss-up which is understandable since both of these teams have been struggling with identical 3-7 records in their last 10 games. The thing that stands out to me is that the Diamondbacks 14-10 away from home while the Padres are 11-14 at Petco Park.
Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Diamondbacks, and he has been dealing in his past six starts, allowing one or fewer runs in all except for a three-run game at Coors Field. Meanwhile, Matt Strahm has been doing good as well allowing two runs in each of his last four starts, but I will take the more experienced Greinke here who will be determined to get his team back on the winning track.
My Pick: Diamondbacks (-101)
