Top 10 Third Base Prospect Rankings for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball (2024)

February 25, 2024

Eric discusses hit top 10 third base prospects for fantasy baseball and how they project offensively long-term along with some names to buy or sell at this position in dynasty leagues.

The third base position has slowly been getting more and more intriguing over the last few seasons and this year should bring more of the same. The top three names below are all inside my Top-12 overall and all 10 fall within my Top 80 overall. This doesn't even include Colt Keith who I excluded as he's transitioning over to second base this season.

Another thing to keep in mind too is the fact that several other names who are currently shortstops will likely outgrow the position and have to move over to third base. It happens each and every season.

If you want to see my entire Top 50 and additional writeups, check out my Patreon. And make sure to continue checking RotoBaller as I'm going to be going through all positions in the coming weeks!

Third Base Prospect Rankings for Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

You can also see our 2024 redraft fantasy baseball prospects rankings for all positions. Age and highest level in parentheses. 

10. Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23/AA)

With a big 6'4/220 frame, Dezenzo brings plus or better raw power and has hit for more average than many expected. With his contact abilities, he's probably more of a .260 hitter, but that could come with 25 home runs and double-digit steals annually as Dezenzo is around an average runner. He's one of the more underrated prospects in baseball right now and is in one of the best player development organizations in baseball. Honestly, Dezenzo might be the best value target of anyone on this list.

9. Michael Busch, CHC (26/MLB)

After a trade to the Cubs, Michael Busch is finally in a spot where he can play regularly at the Major League level. I'm still very much in for dynasty leagues and the time to buy low is about to end. Busch was impressive in 2023 with the best slash line of his career and improved walk and strikeout rates to go along with it. The 18.8% strikeout rate is especially notable as Busch was at 26.1% in each of the two previous seasons.

Michael Busch since being optioned back down to Triple-A on 6/30...

95 PA, .299/.432/.662, 8 HR, 16.8% BB, 16.8% K

A trade out of Hollywood is desperately needed for Busch.pic.twitter.com/x8do59IJ0m

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 25, 2023

In addition, Busch improved his contact rates and finished 2023 with a 79.6% contact rate, 87.6% zone contact rate, and just a 21% chase rate while maintaining the plus power that he has consistently shown throughout his minor league career. In 2023, he finished with a 91.1 mph AVG EV and a 90th percentile EV around 105 mph, both of which are solidly above MLB average. Over a full season, Busch could easily flirt with 30-homer seasons to pair with a solid AVG and OBP as well.

8. Curtis Mead, TBR (23/MLB)

While I still have Curtis Mead as a Top 100 overall fantasy prospect, I've been fading him a bit over the last 12 months. There's no doubt Mead is an above-average or better pure hitter but I'm wondering if he's ever more than a 15-18 homer player that doesn't provide more than a handful of steals annually.

There are also questions surrounding his defense and where he fits into Tampa Bay's long-term plans. Mead gives me Jeff McNeill vibes. A solid bat, but not one that will likely be an impact one for fantasy purposes. If that's fine with you, then by all means, go ahead and target him in dynasty leagues. Just keep in mind that the upside for fantasy isn't as high as the other names on this list.

7. Brady House, WAS (20/AA)

A back injury limited Brady House to only 88 games in 2023, but he was still able to put up 12 home runs and nine steals with a .312/.365/.497 slash line across three levels. House now sits at a cool .303 AVG through his first 149 games in the minors, but he's only managed 576 combined plate appearances over the last two seasons.

As an above-average hitter with plus raw power and around average speed, there's a lot to like in House's profile for fantasy purposes moving forward. If he can remain healthy, House could easily be a Top 25 prospect by the end of 2024. The time to buy at a reasonable price tag in dynasty leagues will likely end early this season.

6. Graham Pauley, SDP (23/AA)

The 2023 season was a major breakout for Graham Pauley who finished with 32 doubles, 23 home runs, and 22 steals in 127 games with a stellar .308/.393/.539 slash line. The Padres gave him some extra work out in the Arizona Fall League as well where Pauley added five home runs and four steals in 21 games.

Only four prospects this season went 15+/15+ with a 10+% walk rate and a strikeout rate below 20%.

Tyler Black #ThisIsMyCrew
Harry Ford #SeaUsRise
Graham Pauley #BringTheGold
Jakob Marsee #Padres pic.twitter.com/zTG7sVMdDC

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 16, 2023

Pauley is one of those prospects that doesn't stand out in any one area, but he's an above-average hitter with around average power/speed that could flirt with 20/20 seasons at the Major League level if everything clicks. Don't sleep on him.

5. Tyler Black, MIL (23/AAA)

After having back-to-back big power bats and four straight potential 30-homer bats, we shift to Tyler Black who possesses a much different profile. Black enjoyed a big breakout in 2023 and finished two home runs shy of being the third 20/50 player in the minors last season. In 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Black finished with 55 extra-base hits, 18 home runs, 55 steals, and a .284/.417/.523 slash line. He was one of just three prospects to have over 50 extra-base hits and 50 steals last season.

Some will knock him for his below-average power, but even if Black is in the 15-homer range, that should be enough for him to provide solid fantasy value given his plus speed and elite approach at the plate. We're likely going to see plenty of Black with Milwaukee this season as well.

4. Brock WIlken, MIL (21/AA)

Similarly to Mayo above, Brock Wilken made notable strides in the contact, walk, and strikeout departments in 2023 at Wake Forest. And fortunately, those improvements stuck after the draft in the minors as well. In his final season at Wake Forest, Wilken mashed 31 home runs in 66 games with more walks (69) than strikeouts (58) and hit .285 with a .414 OBP in 47 games after the draft.

Wilken and Mayo profile fairly similarly long-term with massive raw power and the contact skills to hit above .260. Don't be surprised if you see Wilken as a Top 20 overall prospect by the end of 2024, or maybe even higher. I'll even go as far as saying there's a chance we're talking about him next offseason similarly to how we're talking about Junior Caminero this offseason.

3. Coby Mayo, BAL (22/AAA)

After hitting .247 in 2022, Coby Mayo took a significant step forward as a pure hitter in 2023, improving his contact, walk, and strikeout rates. Overall, Mayo finished with a .290/.410/.564 slash line with 45 doubles and 29 home runs across 140 games, along with a 15.1% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate. Those were highly encouraging improvements from Mayo while also maintaining his massive raw power. Often you'll see a hitter sacrifice power to improve contact or vice versa, but that fortunately wasn't the case here with Mayo.

With these improvements being made, there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that Mayo is a future middle-of-the-order masher in the making who could begin to demonstrate that upside for the Orioles sooner rather than later. Mayo projects as an annual 30-homer bat who can provide a solid AVG/OBP and plenty of run production while winding up as a potential Top 10 fantasy player at either corner infield position.

*Colt Keith would rank here, but he is transitioning to 2nd Base*

2. Noelvi Marte, CIN (22/MLB)

While he hasn't had that one big offensive season yet, Noelvi Marte has consistently shown impressive tools across the board offensively. I've been incredibly high on Marte for a while now and even pushed him into my Top 10 overall prospects way back in 2019 and have kept him there (or just outside) ever since.

Hitters with a 45+% hard-hit rate (min 50 BBE) and 90th percentile sprint speed or better in 2023.

Bobby Witt Jr.
Julio Rodríguez
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Elly De La Cruz
Jarren Duran 👀
Mike Trout
Byron Buxton
Noelvi Marte 👀 pic.twitter.com/9Qe3Y5bsS1

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) January 29, 2024

In 2023, Marte racked up 20 doubles, 11 home runs, and 18 steals in 92 games before his promotion to Cincinnati and added another trio of homers and a half-dozen steals in 35 games with the Reds. Marte was also one of just eight hitters last season with a hard-hit rate above 45% and a sprint speed in the 90th percentile or better in the Major Leagues. The fact that he didn't lose a step when he bulked up two years ago is encouraging along with his willingness to run.

Long-term, Marte is a potential five-category impact fantasy bat that could hit at least .270 with 30/20 upside in the power/speed department. Honestly, the ceiling is very comparable to Caminero's and maybe even a tick higher when you add in Great American Ballpark.

1. Junior Caminero, TBR (20/MLB)

Usually, I hate comparisons, but the Rafael Devers comp that has been thrown around fits well here. That's the upside we're looking at here with Caminero who could join the Devers/Riley tier of third basemen if everything clicks.

Caminero has double-plus raw power and flexed that power early and often in 2023, finishing with 31 home runs, a .594 SLG, and a .267 ISO with big-time exit velocities. This could easily be an annual 30-homer bat while providing close to double-digit steals and a solid AVG/OBP as well. Even if Caminero isn't on the Opening Day roster, he should be up very early and is one of the frontrunners for the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year.

If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.

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