Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 11: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

November 19, 2022

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 11 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

After going 3-1 on game picks last week and hitting our teaser, I am ready to keep it rolling in Week 11 with another winning week!

Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week: 3-1
• Season ATS: 17-15
• Season O/U: 7-16
• Season Overall: 24-31

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads/MoneyLine

TEN +3.5 (-110 DK)

The Packers are favored here at home, likely due to that big win against Dallas last week. Otherwise, I think we would be seeing this line a lot closer to a pick ‘em.

I’m not sure I am ready to anoint the Packers as “back” after one win but they’re also not dead yet (watch this video, it’s hilarious, especially if you’re a Monty Python fan).

The Titans have Tannehill back under center and are coming off a solid win of their own, holding off the Broncos last week in a low-scoring affair. I like the way they match up on the offensive and defensive lines here, and I think Derrick Henry could have a big day against this Packers front.

Tennessee's defense has been stout, too, holding their last three opponents to an average of 13.3 points. They have been tough against the run, too, and will force Aaron Rodgers to beat them in the passing game. I am not sure he can do it two weeks in a row. Tennessee is a solid 7-2 ATS this season. I’ll take the Titans and the points.

NYG -3 (-110 DK)

Speaking of 7-2, that happens to be the Giants’ record against the spread, too. And while I have a lot of respect for the Lions and don’t want to bet against them, I am not sure how I can walk away from the Giants here in this spot.

My model likes them by closer to 5-6 points and they continue to play well against lesser teams, and the Lions most certainly are that as their defense is abysmal. Even if you rate Detroit’s offense as good as New York’s the big difference for me is that the Giants have a respectable defense and the Lions have one of the worst.

The Giants win by more than a field goal here at home (Sorry, Eagles and Cowboys fans - they aren’t going away!)

MIN ML (+105 DK)

I don’t want to chase one week’s results, but the win over Buffalo for Minnesota I think should be validating their early season success, and a lot of folks are looking for any reason they can to dismiss it. Maybe they should have lost, but they played well and put up a bunch of points on a good defense while causing a bunch of turnovers on defense against the potential MVP in Josh Allen.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys crumbled late against the Packers, wasting a 14-point lead and eventually falling in overtime. Their defense allowed a lot of yardage and had a hard time stopping the run and the pass against the Pack.

Now the Cowboys still have a top-5 defense, but they’re facing a top-5 offense this week in Minnesota. This game should be a great one and I expect it to be close. But I think I have to give the home team the edge here, especially if they’re getting the better odds in a game that could be viewed at most as a pick ‘em.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

CHI-ATL OVER 49 (-110 DK)

I was a bit nervous about this over, considering that both teams really want to run the ball instead of throwing it. But both of these offenses have been trending up and have very capable, mobile quarterbacks who can really threaten these defenses and keep drives moving.

Mariota hasn’t been anywhere near the rushing threat that Fields has, but he can move a bit. And these defenses have been flat-out BAD. Over their last three games, Chicago is dead last with 38 points allowed per game to opponents while Atlanta has allowed the fourth-most at 26 points per game.

I look for this one to potentially shoot out. Fields and this Chicago offense have been so much better the last month and Atlanta doesn’t really have the secondary to stop their passing game. At the same time, the Bears can’t stop anyone, and Atlanta has plenty of weapons on offense, too.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.

5-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: PHI/SF/KC/BAL/BUF (+252 DK)

4-TEAM 6.5-POINT UNDERDOG TEASER: TEN/CHI/NYJ/MIN (+230 DK)

That takes the spreads to TEN +10, CHI +9.5, NYJ +10.5, and MIN +8!

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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