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It's a bit of a quiet Monday with only nine games today, but that doesn't mean there isn't still some money to be made making MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Monday, August 22nd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Max Scherzer o7.5K vs. NYY (-105 FD)
You can see in the projections when I boost the Yankees K rate even a few percent based on their recent struggles, that Max’s projection shoots well up over 8. He’s so tough on righties, and most of New York’s big bats hit from the right side. I know he has the mentality that he wants to go out and dominate the best team in the AL, too, that’s just who he is as a competitor.
Jeffrey Springs o5.5K vs. LAA (+100 DK)
This is our guy! I’m not going to let one bad break stop me from jumping back on Springs in a great spot against the Angels. Now, they do have Mike Trout back in the lineup, but Trout hasn’t done much since returning and is a bit K-prone against lefties himself. We are getting plus odds on DK (probably not for long) so grab this value while you can.
Julio Urias o6.5K vs. MIL (-140 FD)
Urias came up one short in this spot last time, but only pitched five innings. And man oh man are the Brewers struggling against lefties. I had Steele o5.5 yesterday and in all my DFS lineups and he smashed with nine strikeouts. The Milwaukee L14 K rate is over 33% right now and I just want to keep attacking this spot.
WATCH FOR: Jordan Montgomery vs. CHC - Monty has eight strikeouts in two straight starts and a 28% strikeout rate in the second half. He’s been amazing since going to St. Louis and I am hoping we get him o5.5 at decent odds.
Also, I can’t seem to figure out who’s pitching for Miami as half the books and sites have Edward Cabrera and the other half have Pablo Lopez. But I think this spot against Oakland is a bit of a trap for either as their walk rate is way up and their K rate is trending down. I found out the hard way with Luis Castillo, yesterday, too.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
Byron Buxton o1.5 TB (-110 DK)
Buxton is my top overall bat (other than Goldy) on the slate. His numbers against lefties this season are impressive as he’s now up to a .375 wOBA and .347 ISO on the year. He’s still striking out a lot (31%), but the quality of contact is really good when he makes it. The rookie Ragans is allowing a lot of contact, striking out only 11% of hitters while walking 12%. Buxton and Jose Miranda (who usually hits clean-up) really stand out here with their splits.
Yandy Diaz o1.5 TB (+100)
Diaz is a hitting machine. He’s such a good leadoff hitter in that he strikes out only 5% of the time against lefties while walking 12% and posting a .370 wOBA. He’s facing a very poor lefty today in Davidson, who has posted a 7.05 xFIP, 15% BB%, and only 11.7% K%. In his last three starts, Diaz has collected six hits, with four of those being doubles. I love the odds here on such a good hitter in a nice spot.
Dan Vogelbach o1.5 TB (+170 FD)
I found these crazy odds on FD and I’m taking a shot. He could get pinch hit for later in the game if a lefty comes in, but Vogelbach absolutely crushes sinkers and German is throwing them a ton to lefties right now. This park is great for lefty power and it wouldn’t take much for him to put one out with one sweet swing. He also hustles his fat butt off around the bases (Youtube this is you haven’t seen him run, it’s incredible) and has a double in three of his last four starts.
Watch For: Paul Goldschmidt - The Cardinals game props aren’t up yet, but betting on Goldy for two total bases has been a printing press this year, especially against a lefty. The odds will probably be juiced a bit against a lefty, and because of the recent tear he’s on, but I think it’s still a solid bet in the -130 to -140 range.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
NYM -1.5 (+105 DK)
It’s a perfect storm here for the Mets as they get their co-ace Mad Max going up against the Yankees’ worst arm German. When you toss in just how cold the Yankees are at the plate, it makes me think that Max can dominate them and allow his patient group of hitters the ability to make German work and knock him around a bit. The Yankees bullpen has also been trending in the wrong direction, giving the Mets the advantage in all three major categories today.
STL over 4.5 runs (-120 DK)
The Cards just continue to pummel teams as they wiped out the D-Backs this weekend while scoring 27 runs in three games. Their win streak is now at seven and this offense has scored five runs or more in each of those wins.
There’s no reason to think this offense, which has hit LHP well, can’t do it again here against Smyly.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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