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Eric Samulski analyzes early spring training 2022 news and rumors with some overreaction in the fantasy baseball world (Part Two).
Baseball is back, spring training is here, and every tweet from every beat writer is getting scrutinized to an outrageous level. It's wacky season at its best, but instead of shying away from that, we're going to lean into it.
I've found some bits of news that are interesting and also, at times, amusing, and together we can lose our minds about it.
If you missed Part One, check it out here.
Overreaction Time
We'll look at tweets from beat writers and comments from players about their teammates and then give free rein to that part of our brain that wants to turn the amp up to 11.
Have no fear, there will be actionable information here and I will be discussing fantasy-relevant players. No, this won't be another version of Jeff Zimmerman's Mining the News and be packed full of insight gems. If Jeff's pieces are the beautifully-organized Princeton offense that took the basketball world by storm, this column is that version of basketball that's played on trampolines. It's kinda still the same, but we're just gonna say "Screw it" and get weird with it.
This doesn't apply to a particular player but is an important talking point nonetheless. More roster spots will almost definitely be used to carry more pitchers. We've already heard that most starting pitchers aren't going to be fully built up to start the year, with few of them likely to go beyond five innings pitched in their first few starts. This means more multiple-inning relievers will likely be racking up wins in the first few weeks until starting pitchers can get built up to their full workload.
Perhaps a good draft strategy is to save one or two spots on your team early (depending on roster size) for a multi-inning reliever like Jonathan Loaisiga or Garrett Whitlock or Collin McHugh, who could be useful for you for the first few weeks until you can cut him for a starting pitcher who looks good early. Or, you know, keep them on your roster for ratios and extra innings out of your relievers.
Shohei Ohtani, P/OF Los Angeles Angels
Speaking of rules, they made a rule just for Ohtani (and maybe Michael Lorenzen)! While this isn't a huge piece of news because it really only affects Ohtani; however, it does mean that we should be projecting more at-bats for Ohtani during the year because those 1-2 per game he lost when he started would now be added back. If we expect him to make around 25 starts, that might be an additional 30 at-bats, which isn't nothing. It also helps the Angels immensely as a real-life rule.
Jacob deGrom, RHP New York Mets
First overall pick! OK, maybe we don't need to overreact that much, but deGrom was apparently "taking it easy" with his fastball and still running it up at 99.
He broke off some breaking balls as well and looked to be close to a normal pitcher's mid-season form. So we have our first box checked: deGrom looks healthy and dominant. Now, can he remain that way? That remains a question since he never did have surgery to address his arm issues; however, he's been resting and rehabbing for months now and certainly is worth the risk in the middle of the tier of top starting pitchers, likely right after Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes for me.
Luis Castillo, RHP Cincinnati Reds
Could miss or will miss? Let's go with "will miss." The Reds have clearly signaled that they are not going to be competing this year, so they are certainly not going to rush Castillo back. If Castillo starts on the IL that means two of Tony Santillan, Reiver Sanmartin, and Hunter Greene are going to make this opening day rotation. With the way Hunter Greene looked in his first spring start, I'm even more in on him than I was for part one.
Tommy Pham, OF Cincinnati Reds
I was all in on Pham before he signed and mentioned him as one of my favorite late speed targets. At the time, I thought you could get a .260 season out of him with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Pham going to Great American Ballpark just gives me the warm fuzzies. Let's go ahead and pencil Pham in for .265 with 22 HRs (what he would have hit if he played all his games in Great American last year), with 12 SBs (the Reds don't like to steal) 72 Runs, and 63 RBIs.
Jesus Luzardo, LHP Miami Marlins
Yes, he didn't get a lot of swinging strikes in this outing, but he's mixing in all of his pitches and pumping 99, which has to have you excited. The raw stuff for Luzardo was never in question, and he's with a team that develops pitching incredibly well. With Sixto Sanchez's injury, Luzardo is now battling with just Edward Cabrera for the final spot in the rotation; however, most teams are also going to a six-man rotation since pitchers aren't fully built up yet, which means Luzardo is likely to begin the year in the rotation and have a chance to stake his claim. Given his upside, this makes him a great late-round flier who you can release if he's not progressing the way you or the Marlins would like to see. (but as my buddy Thunder Dan prompted me to stipulate, I'd still rather take Hunter Greene).
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
I know this goes against the spirit of this article, but we're actually going to UNDER-react to this. Mitch Keller pumping 98 and sitting at 97.7 mph after pitching last year around 93.7 mph is certainly noteworthy. His offseason work is commendable, and he's put himself back on the fantasy radar, which you love to see just as a baseball fan. We have to pump the breaks on the hype train. Somebody asked me if they should draft Keller over Carlos Carrasco. No.
Keller may be sitting 97.7 mph in spring, but he got just one whiff on his fastball in three innings and had an overall CSW of 26%. His breaking pitches are still going to need to take another step in their development too before we really buy in here. Pitchers that can touch 100 are cool, but they are way more common now. Even in this game, Reds' minor leaguers were making contact regularly, so Keller is going to need to show gains in his pitch sequencing and full arsenal before you should be moving him above the Greene's and Luzardo's of the world.
Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks
Let's move from all the hype to no hype and talk about two Diamondbacks pitchers, starting with the cagey veteran.
Bumgarner's stats over the past few years have been closely tied to his velocity, allowing much harder contact and more runs when his fastball velocity dips below 92 mph and more under 90 mph, so this is actually really important news, especially early in spring. He has yet to average over 90.4 mph in either season since coming over from Arizona and has been vocal about making it an offseason priority to regain his velocity, so these first few starts would seem to suggest that the offseason work is paying off. If Bumgarner is able to sit 92 mph with his fastball, you're going to see a much more effective version of him, who is shockingly only 32-years-old.
Since Bumgarner is basically free in drafts right now, this is absolutely something to keep an eye on in later drafts, and he could emerge as one of the better innings-eaters after pick 300. Especially in a year where so many pitchers are going to be slow to ramp up to a full innings load.
Merrill Kelly, SP Arizona Diamondbacks
I mentioned Kelly earlier in the offseason as one of my favorite late-round starting pitching targets, so this excites me. You can read my full breakdown of him there, but I mentioned that Kelly only really started to get fully healthy post-surgery around the end of May and then he was diagnosed with COVID in August and struggled after coming back.
"As a result of everything mentioned above, we really need to look at his numbers from May 20th until his COVID diagnosis in August to get a sense of what a fully healthy Merrill Kelly looked like in 2021. The result is actually pretty good. Over that span, which amounts to 15 starts, Kelly had an 11.2% SwStr%, 29.3% CSW, and 18 K-BB%, all of which are solid numbers considering league average rates for starting pitchers were an 11.8% SwStr% and 28.5% CSW. Additionally, Kelly also allowed a .277 wOBA, 3.6% barrel rate, and compiled a 3.13 deserved ERA (dERA) which can be found on Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard."
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
I just wanted to post this here because that sound is so beautiful. Witt should be up at the start of the season, and I expect him to put up way better numbers than Jared Kelenic did as last year's most-hyped prospect debut.
CJ Abrams, San Diego Padres
The Padres have a hole at SS, so why not fill it with their top prospect? With Fernando Tatis Jr. out for three months, the Padres will likely let Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar hold down the shortstop job early on, but if they flounder in April, don't be surprised if Abrams is given the call. The team already showed that they would play Tatis in the outfield, and if that's the way they can get him and Abrams in the same lineup, they could be willing to do it again.
Abrams should be on the radar in redraft leagues if you're willing to wait three to five weeks to see if he gets the call.
Seranthony Dominguez, Philadelphia Phillies
Man, I remember when I was so high on Dominguez. Well, he's reported to camp almost 30 pounds lighter and looking like his intriguing self from three years ago. Considering the Phillies' late-inning options are the oft-injured Corey Knebel and two veterans on the verge of complete implosion (Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand) Dominguez is a name to keep an eye on and likely one to draft in draft-and-hold formats in case he works himself into some high leverage innings by the summer.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF Boston Red Sox
I mean, as of now he is going to be starting in one of the better lineups in the American League. Bradley also has double-digit speed, so if he can get back to being the .240 hitter he was in his previous stint in Boston with double-digit home runs and steals, he should work his way back onto the radar in deep leagues.
Josh Rojas, 2B/SS/3B/OF Arizona Diamondbacks
With the news that Rojas was playing through a shoulder injury last year and the way he has come out swinging it this spring, I am back in on Rojas. I had worried that his team context was poor and that he was really a 10-10 kind of player, but I think there's potential that Rojas could be a 15-15 guy with more power upside hitting leadoff. So even if the team context is still poor, there is definitely value there where he is going in drafts. He might be my favorite late-round multi-position player. Well, him and...
Keston Hiura, 1B/2B/OF? Milwaukee Brewers
I was going to craft a tweet much like this, but Chris beat me to it because he's an incredibly hard-working dude. The nuggets in the tweet are super useful. Hiura has tweaked his swing to get quicker to the ball and stay in the zone longer. He's also out-hit Rowdy Tellez this spring, and the Brewers have started giving him reps in the outfield.
If he makes the team as a super-UTIL bat, I think he will be fantasy-viable in a fair amount of leagues. Remember that he raked in college and raked as a prospect. He didn't just forget how to hit; he had to make adjustments, which he has clearly been doing.
Say it with me now: "PROSPECT GROWTH IS NOT LINEAR."
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