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I'm willing to bet that the final score of the Week 16 Thursday Night Football game will not be as lopsided as last week's 63-21 score where the Raiders dismantled the Chargers.
For this week, we have a mostly clean bill of health for our fantasy football contributors and both teams have massive amounts of motivation to win this week with playoff berths on the line. In what should be a competitive matchup, the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams will play the game as if it's a do-or-die scenario.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this 16th Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season.
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New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams - 8:15 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Saints vs. Rams NFL Actives/Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable injuries:
- Kendre Miller (RB, NO) - Ankle - OUT
Saints at Rams Matchup Breakdown
Over the last three weeks, only the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals have put up more yards per play than the Los Angeles Rams (6.0), who suddenly have a high-powered offense again. In addition, only eight teams play at a faster pace than the Rams during that span, so they are getting big plays, and they are getting a lot of them.
It's all led to more than 4.0 red zone scoring trips per game and 31.7 points per game, which again ranks third, this time behind Miami and San Francisco. The task New Orleans has in front of them is to figure out a way to stop this offensive machine while on the road in a short week. At the same time, the Saints need to continue their offensive success after an average of 26.7 points per game in the last three games.
How will these two surging offenses face against two strong defenses? Both Los Angeles and New Orleans are top-10 in fewest red zone scoring attempts allowed to opponents over the last month. Which units assert their dominance (especially at the line) will be the story of this game with massive postseason ramifications.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Unlike his teammate, which will be discussed below, Alvin Kamara has been as consistent as they come this season. In his 11 games, only two of them have not seen him score as the RB14 or better in PPR formats. He has at least four catches in all but two games this season and that provides his floor. The six touchdowns provide the ceiling. But beware, the Rams allow the fewest receiving yards to running backs on the season.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
After missing last week with an ankle injury, Chris Olave has been declared good to go for Week 16. The Saints will need all their big playmakers on the field on Thursday, but the issue with Olave is he has been more up and down than Mr. Consistency. Olave finished outside the top 18 wide receivers in half-PPR his last three games but was top-10 in the two games before that. The Rams are bottom-10 in the league in allowing over 11.5 yards per completion this season, so Olave could certainly break off one or two long plays.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Even with all the starting quarterbacks available to us, Stafford is still a starter to me in 12-team leagues this week. Since Week 12, Stafford is third among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, the Rams pass 57% of the time this season (59% at home), and the Saints are 25th on the season in sack percentage. When Stafford has all his weapons healthy and plenty of time in the pocket to throw, he has shown over the past month he is still dangerous to opposing defenses.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
In that same four-week span from Week 12 to Week 15, Kyren Williams has also looked like one of the most dominant players in the NFL. He ranks second to just Christian McCaffrey in half-PPR fantasy points per game and it's not just on the ground. Since he returned from injury, Williams is first at the position in routes run and red zone targets. He also has the fourth-most targets and a 15% target share in that span. New Orleans has allowed 4.8 yards per rush in their last three games, so Kyren has a chance to run wild in this one.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
It took a while post-injury, but Cooper Kupp is finally back to playing elite football, and the past three weeks have shown just what kind of exclusive company he keeps. Only CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, and DK Metcalf have more fantasy points over the last three weeks than Kupp, who has put up back-t0-back 21 points performances in half-PPR leagues. He is now back up to a 25% target share over the last three games and has passed Puka Nacua as the most reliable pass-catcher on the Rams.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)
As should have been expected, rookie Puka Nacua has taken a backseat to Cooper Kupp now that Kupp is healthy in every game. In his past four contests, Nacua finished WR71, WR10, WR23, and WR40 in half-PPR formats. Nacua is still getting at least seven targets every single game, but the high-value looks are going to Kupp. Nacua still has value as a WR2/3 on your fantasy squad, but he is more of a five-catch, 80-yard guy these days and has scored just twice since Week 5.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Only the Broncos have allowed more receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the seven given up by New Orleans this year. The Saints' strength is in their defensive line and their cornerbacks, so tight ends have been able to feast near the end zone. Tyler Higbee may just barely crack the top 12 at the position with no teams on bye, but he has a good shot at a short score.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
As the QB7 overall in Week 15, I still doubt Derek Carr won anyone any playoff matchups. That's because he was between QB19 and QB30 in each of his previous four games and very few chose to start him. Carr threw for three scores for the first time this season, but that was against the Giants, who hand out passing yards like they are Tommy Devito trading cards. Los Angeles and their ferocious defensive line should provide a much tougher test drive for Carr.
Rashid Shaheed and Lynn Bowden Jr. (WRs, NO)
There was a rush to roster and start Rashid Shaheed in Week 15 after Chris Olave was declared out. And even though Derek Carr threw for three scores and the Giants' pass defense was abysmal, both wide receivers expected to step up ended up falling down. Shaheed and Bowden ended up combining for 67 scoreless yards, with Carr featuring the tight ends and Kamara. With Olave back this week, there just is not enough volume to go around to the WR3/4 on this Saints squad.
Taysom Hill (TE, NO)
Los Angeles is tied with New Orleans with seven touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season, but those are through the air, and Taysom Hill does most of his damage on the ground this year. However, Hill has been too volatile when everyone is healthy to rely on in fantasy lineups. When injuries ravaged the Saints, Hill had four straight weeks as a top-10 tight end in Weeks 6-9. But since then, he has finished as TE23, TE14, TE5, and TE58. That's too much of a guessing game for him to be a lock in our lineups.
Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson (WRs, LAR)
Demarcus Robinson balled out last week with Tutu Atwell missing the game, but they will now be back to sharing duties behind Nacua and Kupp. In games where both Atwell and Robinson are healthy lately, Robinson sees about a 60/40 split in snaps, but there is no real consistency to their box scores. One might catch a long TD pass, but good luck guessing which one it will be.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: LAR -4, Total: 46
Give the Saints credit for what they have done for three of the last four weeks. In those three games, they allowed 15, six, and six points. However, those scores were against the Falcons, the Panthers, and the Giants. The one time in the last four weeks they played a real offense, they allowed 33 points to the Lions, including two passing touchdowns and two rushing scores.
The Rams are going to try and move fast and in big chunks on Thursday to make this short-week defense for New Orleans winded. I believe with all the playmakers on the Rams and Derek Carr likely turning back into a pumpkin when he sees Aaron Donald coming at him, the home team should have no problem covering a four-point spread.
Picks: LAR -4, OVER
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