X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Predicting the Top 10 Finishers in Steals

Pierre Camus predicts which players will dominate the stolen base (SB) rankings in 2017. These could be players to target in fantasy baseball drafts.

While the juiced ball has raised home run totals across the board, stolen bases are becoming an increasingly rare commodity. In 2016, there were 14 players who finished with 30 or more steals, while 28 players robbed at least 20 bases. By contrast, 10 years ago there were 19 players who stole 30+ bases and 42 with 20+ steals. Back then, nabbing a player like Jose Reyes or Jacoby Ellsbury (seriously!) could get you as many as 70 steals in a season.

The value of the top base-stealers will vary wildly, depending on what else they bring to the table, but for our purposes we will look solely at who should dominate this elusive category in 2017.

Editor's note: for even more draft prep, visit our awesome 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It has lots of in-depth staff rankings and draft strategy columns. You will find tiered rankings for every position, 2017 impact rookie rankings, AL/NL only league ranks and lots more. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Predictions: Top 10 Base Stealers

10.  Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels - Last season, Trout experienced a bit of a flashback to 2013 when he finished with very similar numbers across the board. He sacrificed speed for power the next two years, but came back to his base-stealing ways in 2016 with 30 thefts. The Angels will have a tough time competing in the AL West and may need to generate offense however they can. This could mean Trout will have the green light more often. Are you going to be the one to doubt him?

9.  Jose Altuve, Houston Astros - The way Altuve has started to hit the ball, he may be too busy trotting around the bases to think about stealing. Altuve's power has started to surge, while his steal totals waned last year. Since leading the AL with 56 steals in 2014, that total dropped to 38 in 2015 and 30 last year. This should temper your expectations for another 50-steal season, but keep in mind Altuve is just 26 years old and has never finished under 30 steals in a full season. He is a safe bet for another 30-35 SB.

8.  Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates - Now the center fielder in Pittsburgh, Marte is officially the resident speed demon. After back-to-back 30 steal seasons, Marte jumped up to 47 SB in 2016. He never flashed that much thievery in the minors, posting a high of 26 in the lower levels, so it's hard to imagine him topping that number. Nonetheless, he is a top-15 outfield target because you won't sacrifice average or run production by drafting him.

7.  Rajai Davis, Oakland Athletics - If it seems that Davis pops up on the SB leaderboard with a different team each year, it's mostly true. Last season, he finished fourth with 43 steals as a member of the Tribe en route to swatting an unexpected, memorable post-season home run. He also finished sixth in stolen bases with Detroit in 2014, third in 2013, second in 2012 and 13th in 2011 while with Toronto, and was third in 2010 and 13th in 2009 in his first run with the A's. He returns to Oakland as the regular center fielder and a safe bet for 40 steals. Oakland doesn't run quite as much as other teams, which is the only reason Davis drops to number seven on this list, but they didn't bring him in for his power...

6.  Keon Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers - If the Oakland Raiders' motto is "Just Win Baby," then the Brewers should adopt "Just Run Baby" as their's. Milwaukee led the league in stolen base attempts and it wasn't even close (you could say it was a runaway...) Broxton accounted for 27 of the team's 237 attempts and was successful on 23. This came in less than half a season's work, as he saw just 207 AB. If Broxton can hit close to the way he did in the second half (.294/.399/.538), he could even battle Villar for the top spot on his team.

5.  Trea Turner, Washington Nationals - He may not finish with the highest SB total of the players on this list, but definitely wins the contest for highest overall ceiling. Turner is being taken as high as the first round in some fantasy drafts due to his tremendous skill set which includes 33 steals over half a season as a rookie. He may not be asked to steal as much as some of the players on lesser teams because of the run-producers behind him in the lineup, which somewhat limits his potential in this category. That just means he may "only" steal 45 bases, as opposed to 60.

4.  Jose Peraza, Cincinnati Reds - Hearing that Brandon Phillips was being dealt to Atlanta was all I needed to propel Peraza into this list. In limited time as a rookie, Peraza swiped 21 bags over 256 plate appearances. Truth be told, it should have been more had he not been caught 10 times. As the everyday second baseman, Peraza could easily reach 50 steals or more. He reached the 60-steal mark twice in the minors while hitting .299. Don't fool yourself into thinking his hot streak late last year was a fluke.

3.  Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers - We'll have to take a small step back from Villar, even though he has a good shot to replicate last year's numbers. Many are calling for a regression from his .373 BABIP, but that figure isn't much higher than two of his previous seasons as a utility man in Houston. In his first year as a full-time starter, Villar struck out way too much to be at the top of the order (174 K), but he also increased his walk rate (11.6 percent) and posted a .369 OBP. On a different team, this might be a different story, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if Villar swipes 50 or more again.

2.  Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds - If there's one thing the man can do, it's steal bases. Hamilton has gone over 50 SB in each of his three full Major League seasons. He cut down greatly on his caught-stealing percentage since his rookie year and has posted an 88 percent SB success rate each of the last two seasons. One can only imagine how many steals Hamilton could get if he hit over .260. While he is a great bet to lead the league in steals, you can throw every other counting stat out the window by putting him in your outfield, so draft accordingly.

1.  Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins - Those expecting a stolen base crown by picking Gordon early last year were treated to a half-season of bitter disappointment when his 80-game suspension was announced. He somewhat acquitted himself with 24 steals in the second half, but many are still wondering if he can be the same player who led the league in both steals and batting average in 2015. That seems like a stretch, but even as a .270 hitter at the top of Miami's lineup, he will have ample opportunity to log 650+ plate appearances and run at will. His playing time and productivity is far more secure than Hamilton, so he gets the nod as the top projected base stealer in 2017.

 

Honorable Mention:

Travis Jankowski, San Diego Padres - If Jankowski were assured of being the everyday starter as he was in the second half of 2016, he would surely make the cut. Jankowski swiped 30 bags across 383 PA last season, but will be competing with Alex Dickerson and top prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe for playing time. If one of those three struggles or gets injured, Jankowski could again make for a nice waiver wire add for those desperate for steals.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF