X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Predicting the Top 10 Finishers in Steals

Pierre Camus predicts which players will dominate the stolen base (SB) rankings in 2017. These could be players to target in fantasy baseball drafts.

While the juiced ball has raised home run totals across the board, stolen bases are becoming an increasingly rare commodity. In 2016, there were 14 players who finished with 30 or more steals, while 28 players robbed at least 20 bases. By contrast, 10 years ago there were 19 players who stole 30+ bases and 42 with 20+ steals. Back then, nabbing a player like Jose Reyes or Jacoby Ellsbury (seriously!) could get you as many as 70 steals in a season.

The value of the top base-stealers will vary wildly, depending on what else they bring to the table, but for our purposes we will look solely at who should dominate this elusive category in 2017.

Editor's note: for even more draft prep, visit our awesome 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It has lots of in-depth staff rankings and draft strategy columns. You will find tiered rankings for every position, 2017 impact rookie rankings, AL/NL only league ranks and lots more. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Predictions: Top 10 Base Stealers

10.  Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels - Last season, Trout experienced a bit of a flashback to 2013 when he finished with very similar numbers across the board. He sacrificed speed for power the next two years, but came back to his base-stealing ways in 2016 with 30 thefts. The Angels will have a tough time competing in the AL West and may need to generate offense however they can. This could mean Trout will have the green light more often. Are you going to be the one to doubt him?

9.  Jose Altuve, Houston Astros - The way Altuve has started to hit the ball, he may be too busy trotting around the bases to think about stealing. Altuve's power has started to surge, while his steal totals waned last year. Since leading the AL with 56 steals in 2014, that total dropped to 38 in 2015 and 30 last year. This should temper your expectations for another 50-steal season, but keep in mind Altuve is just 26 years old and has never finished under 30 steals in a full season. He is a safe bet for another 30-35 SB.

8.  Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates - Now the center fielder in Pittsburgh, Marte is officially the resident speed demon. After back-to-back 30 steal seasons, Marte jumped up to 47 SB in 2016. He never flashed that much thievery in the minors, posting a high of 26 in the lower levels, so it's hard to imagine him topping that number. Nonetheless, he is a top-15 outfield target because you won't sacrifice average or run production by drafting him.

7.  Rajai Davis, Oakland Athletics - If it seems that Davis pops up on the SB leaderboard with a different team each year, it's mostly true. Last season, he finished fourth with 43 steals as a member of the Tribe en route to swatting an unexpected, memorable post-season home run. He also finished sixth in stolen bases with Detroit in 2014, third in 2013, second in 2012 and 13th in 2011 while with Toronto, and was third in 2010 and 13th in 2009 in his first run with the A's. He returns to Oakland as the regular center fielder and a safe bet for 40 steals. Oakland doesn't run quite as much as other teams, which is the only reason Davis drops to number seven on this list, but they didn't bring him in for his power...

6.  Keon Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers - If the Oakland Raiders' motto is "Just Win Baby," then the Brewers should adopt "Just Run Baby" as their's. Milwaukee led the league in stolen base attempts and it wasn't even close (you could say it was a runaway...) Broxton accounted for 27 of the team's 237 attempts and was successful on 23. This came in less than half a season's work, as he saw just 207 AB. If Broxton can hit close to the way he did in the second half (.294/.399/.538), he could even battle Villar for the top spot on his team.

5.  Trea Turner, Washington Nationals - He may not finish with the highest SB total of the players on this list, but definitely wins the contest for highest overall ceiling. Turner is being taken as high as the first round in some fantasy drafts due to his tremendous skill set which includes 33 steals over half a season as a rookie. He may not be asked to steal as much as some of the players on lesser teams because of the run-producers behind him in the lineup, which somewhat limits his potential in this category. That just means he may "only" steal 45 bases, as opposed to 60.

4.  Jose Peraza, Cincinnati Reds - Hearing that Brandon Phillips was being dealt to Atlanta was all I needed to propel Peraza into this list. In limited time as a rookie, Peraza swiped 21 bags over 256 plate appearances. Truth be told, it should have been more had he not been caught 10 times. As the everyday second baseman, Peraza could easily reach 50 steals or more. He reached the 60-steal mark twice in the minors while hitting .299. Don't fool yourself into thinking his hot streak late last year was a fluke.

3.  Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers - We'll have to take a small step back from Villar, even though he has a good shot to replicate last year's numbers. Many are calling for a regression from his .373 BABIP, but that figure isn't much higher than two of his previous seasons as a utility man in Houston. In his first year as a full-time starter, Villar struck out way too much to be at the top of the order (174 K), but he also increased his walk rate (11.6 percent) and posted a .369 OBP. On a different team, this might be a different story, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if Villar swipes 50 or more again.

2.  Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds - If there's one thing the man can do, it's steal bases. Hamilton has gone over 50 SB in each of his three full Major League seasons. He cut down greatly on his caught-stealing percentage since his rookie year and has posted an 88 percent SB success rate each of the last two seasons. One can only imagine how many steals Hamilton could get if he hit over .260. While he is a great bet to lead the league in steals, you can throw every other counting stat out the window by putting him in your outfield, so draft accordingly.

1.  Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins - Those expecting a stolen base crown by picking Gordon early last year were treated to a half-season of bitter disappointment when his 80-game suspension was announced. He somewhat acquitted himself with 24 steals in the second half, but many are still wondering if he can be the same player who led the league in both steals and batting average in 2015. That seems like a stretch, but even as a .270 hitter at the top of Miami's lineup, he will have ample opportunity to log 650+ plate appearances and run at will. His playing time and productivity is far more secure than Hamilton, so he gets the nod as the top projected base stealer in 2017.

 

Honorable Mention:

Travis Jankowski, San Diego Padres - If Jankowski were assured of being the everyday starter as he was in the second half of 2016, he would surely make the cut. Jankowski swiped 30 bags across 383 PA last season, but will be competing with Alex Dickerson and top prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe for playing time. If one of those three struggles or gets injured, Jankowski could again make for a nice waiver wire add for those desperate for steals.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Jonathan India

Leaves With Apparent Shoulder Injury
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF