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If the last three Thursdays have been the first three courses of some fantasy fine dining, Week 14's matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers is the unappetizing platter to finish off the meal. After Bengals-Ravens, Thanksgiving, and then the epic Seattle-Dallas bonanza last week, this week we get Bailey Zappe vs. Mitch Trubisky. The NFL is back, baby!
This game should truly be a fantasy wasteland that only the most die-hard fans of the 1985 Chicago Bears or the 2000 Baltimore Ravens can enjoy. The 30.5 implied total for this game has moved down from 32.5 and is now the lowest implied total of the 2023 season and the lowest NFL total since 1993, according to multiple sources. I'm starting a petition now for the possibility of Thursday games to be flexed out.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this 14th Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season.
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New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 8:15 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Patriots vs. Steelers NFL Actives/Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable injuries:
- Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) - Ankle - OUT
- Kayshon Boutte (WR, NE) - Shoulder - Questionable
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, NE) - Ankle - Questionable
- DeVante Parker (WR, NE) - Knee - Questionable
- Demario Douglas (WR, NEP) - OUT
- Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) - Ankle - OUT
- Najee Harris (RB, PIT) - Knee - Questionable
Patriots at Steelers Matchup Breakdown
If you're walking into this game hoping for your fantasy players to deliver a lot of offensive fireworks, it's time to reconsider your plan. The Steelers rank 29th in offensive touchdowns this year (18) while the Patriots are 31st (16). Put another way, the combined touchdowns for both of these teams are equal to a mediocre team like the Indianapolis Colts.
These teams rank first (New England, 2.3) and third (Pittsburgh, 3.5) in yards per rush attempts to opponents over the last three games and both teams are also top-10 in opponents' passing yards per game in that same span. With the Patriots and Steelers both looking at starting backup quarterbacks, this is not projected to be a source of a lot of fantasy points. If you want to point to one team's weakness, the Steelers allow the third-highest yards per completion on the season (11.1), but that's counting on Bailey Zappe to do a lot of the work. I just don't think we can pin our fantasy hopes on that right before the playoffs.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
New England Patriots D/ST
If there's one statement that can describe just how dominant this defense has been over the last three weeks, it was what they did to the Chargers in Week 13. They held Justin Herbert and his offense out of the red zone completely, never letting the ball get closer than the 21-yard line in that game.
You may have heard that New England just set a record for three straight losses where their opponent scores 10 points or less. That speaks volumes about the ineptitude of the offense, but also validates the fact that the Patriots allow just under nine points per game in that span.
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
That's right, the only must-starts for this game are the two defenses. With 30 NFL teams in action, you would have to be in the deepest of leagues to talk yourself into starting many of these offensive players, which means we should focus on the other side of the ball.
Both Pittsburgh and New England allow 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game this season, which is tied for fifth-best in the league. In his last two starts, Bailey Zappe averages just 97.5 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and three sacks taken per game. Pittsburgh only allows 2.9 red zone scoring attempts per game, so points will be hard to come by for New England.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, NE)
After Rhamondre Stevenson left with an injury last week, Elliott touched the ball 21 times for 92 yards against the Chargers. That kind of volume is what you're hoping for if you start Elliott and if he can fall into the end zone, RB2 numbers are certainly within reach.
Demario Douglas (WR, NE)
UPDATE: Demario Douglas is now OUT for Thursday Night Football. Demario Douglas is expected to return on Thursday from a concussion, and he was the top target among all Patriots receivers before the injury. In his four games before the concussion, Douglas had 32 targets and crossed 50 yards three times. The Patriots haven't scored a receiving touchdown in over a month, so that's not what you're looking for here. In PPR leagues, he makes for a fine Flex play.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Najee Harris' situation will have to be monitored closely as he is dealing with a minor knee injury this week. He has been back to about 60% of snaps the last two weeks and actually has three rushing touchdowns over his last five games. The Patriots have allowed one rushing touchdown in the last three games, so we need Harris and this next player to get there on volume, and that's never a guarantee with this team.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)
Warren had monster games in both Week 10 and Week 11 but has disappeared in the two weeks since then. He does have six targets and four red zone opportunities over the last two games and is third in the NFL in true yards per carry. Of the two Steelers' running backs, Warren certainly has the more explosive game and more upside.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae Johnson entered Week 13 with a streak of four out of his last five games with at least eight targets. That ended with just five against the Arizona Cardinals, but Johnson is still option 1A in this offense. Since Week 7, Johnson has a 26% target share and has at least four catches in five out of seven games.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Bailey Zappe (QB, NE)
As mentioned above, Bailey Zappe has had zero success throwing the ball in his two starts, has zero total touchdowns this year, and basically exists to hand the ball to running backs in this offense. T.J. Watt will be hunting him all game, which will likely lead to sacks or turnovers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker (WRs, NE)
With Demario Douglas out last week, DeVante Parker had a nice game with nine targets, four catches, and 64 yards. That's a decent enough stat line for a Flex play in PPR leagues, but if Douglas is back this week, Parker will be back to the second option in the passing game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has eight total targets and 30 total yards in the last three games and has been rendered inert by the offense.
Mitch Trubisky (QB, PIT)
Over the last two years, Mitch Trubisky has played in 11 games and made five starts. In those games, he averages under a 64% completion percentage, has more interceptions that touchdowns, has taken 13 sacks, and has a passer rating under 80. The Patriots have allowed the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns in the league this year (13).
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
In George Pickens' first six games of the season, he saw at least seven targets five times. In his six games since? He has seven targets zero times, and averages 2.8 catches for 41 yards in those contests. With a downgrade coming at quarterback, I can't find myself trusting Pickens in this game.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Well, we will always have Week 12 against Cincinnati to live in our memories forever. After exploding in Week 12 under the new offensive regime for nine catches and 130 yards, Freiermuth came crashing back down to earth with three catches for 29 yards. With only Trey McBride and Logan Thomas unavailable this week, Freiermuth should be on benches except for the truly desperate. The Patriots allow the fourth-fewest points to tight ends this year.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: PIT -6, Total: 30.5
Let me put it to you this way. The Los Angeles Chargers just beat the Patriots 6-0 in Week 13, and a score like that is very much in play again in Week 14. I'll put it to you another way. The Steelers average 12 points per game over their last three games and the Patriots average 4.3. Both of these defenses are playing at a very high caliber and should have zero issues shutting down the other side.
Pittsburgh has the much better playmakers on offense, so I can see them putting up anywhere between 14-20 points. Unless Bailey Zappe and Demario Douglas evolve into Tom Brady and Wes Welker for one night, it's hard to envision more than 10-13 points from New England. I'll call my shot and say the final score is 17-7 in favor of Pittsburgh.
Picks: PIT -6, UNDER
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